DAILY REVIEW 30 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (224pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on low vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (87pips) dragonfly "doji" closing on average vol>1day. The candlec close and volue suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Despite the most recent FOMC meeting being dovish, talks of an impending rate hike this year continue to weigh heavily. 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short position volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1151-1.1141, 1.1027-1.1018 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1245-1.1252, 1.1300-1.1310 
Long (stop) orders: 1.1080-1.1050, 1.1007-1.0980 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1262-1.1280 (low volumes)

Today is the last day of the month so we can expect SM to take profit and position/re-position it ahead of this Friday's NFP. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the current low of 1.1210 or lower before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1210-1.1192, 1.1150, 1.1135, 1.1104, 1.1038, 1.1016, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1262-1.1282, 1.1355,  1.1394, 1.1450, 1.1530-1.1546, 1.1570, 1.1620-1.1627 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. A failure to close above 1.5500 indicate a likely retest of the 1.4870 level or lower is likely. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (433pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (76pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows very thin volume with more long trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: no significant stacks
Potential supply stacks: 1.5493-1.5510

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5128-1.5035

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5204-1.5216, 1.5237-1.5247, 1.5440-1.1560

The UK data was not good, SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.5215 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5127

GU short levels: 1.5220, 1.5263

Posted at 05.19 am EST