DAILY REVIEW 27 November 2014

I wish all our friends HAPPY THANKSGIVING and may God bless you exceedingly and abundantly! 

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (88pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: Euro's fundamentals remain weak and after ECB's Draghi sent the Euro into a tailspin, the market is now waiting on the European CPI and employment data on Friday to close out the last working day of the month. The order stacks at 1.2525, 1.2550, 1.2565, 1.2577, 1.2600, 1.2700   for the eventual push downwards are still in place. Prices reached a high of 1.2531 yesterday for restocking by SM and has since seemingly plunged below the 1.2500 level prior to the release of the German employment data in 10mins time and further data and speech by Draghi laster at 5.30am EST. SM is likely to fade the weak longs to around the 1.2470 or lower before reversing to commence the restocking of shorts.

EU long levels: 1.2470, 1.2437, 1.2423, 1.2413, 1.2400

EU short levels: 1.2543, 1.2565,  1.2600, 1.2635, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a large spread (126pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5816, 1.5825 Background: No change on the fundamentals. BOE's  Carney expects the UK recovery to continue but remains an economy that needs stimulus. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. SM pushed prices to 1.5805 and went to 1.5824 in Asia before stalling and reversing. Note that the order book does not show any significant bunch of volume trapped either long or short so it is best to wait for setups back at structures or the current highs. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to fade the weak longs to he breakout level 1.5735 or lower before reversing to continue the upward restocking of shorts. 

GU long levels: 1.5734, 1.5720, 1.5702, 1.5670, 1.5650, 1.5630-15, 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 4.05 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 26 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (84pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: Euro's fundamentals remain weak and after ECB's Draghi sent the Euro into a tailspin, the market is now waiting on the European CPI and employment data on Friday to close out the last working day of the month. Furthermore, ECB’s Coeure said he wants to "have asset buying discussion next week". Asset buying aka QE Euro-style? Yesterday I wrote "SM is likely to induce more weak shorts to the 1.2400 or lower before reversing to continue the restocking of short orders..." SM went right to the 1.2400 level, kissed 1.2401 and reversed upwards after the release of "good" US data. Although the trend bias is short, the SM Cycle bias is Long as sell orders above 1.2440 have been comprehensively absorbed with price stalling at 1.2486 before reversing back down. SM will want to keep the upward push to restock shorts prior to the release of the data and is likely to create selling pressure to the 1.2435 level or lower before reversing to push back up. A large bunch of orders, possibly stops and fresh orders can be clearly seen at 1.2500, 1.2512, 1.2525, 1.2550, 1.2565, 1.2577, 1.2600, 1.2700   for the eventual push downwards.

EU long levels: 1.2437, 1.2423, 1.2413, 1.2400

EU short levels: 1.2500, 1.2515, 1.2543, 1.2565,  1.2600, 1.2635, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (86pips) bull "dragon fly" doji closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825 Background: The fundamentals remain unchanged. BOE's  Carney said that he expects the UK recovery to continue but it remains an economy that requires stimulus. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. Yesterday, I rote "....to test the 1.5650 level or lower before reversing upwards to retest the 1.5734 pivot or higher", price literally dived 3pips below 1.5650 to 1.5647 and reversed up to tag 1.5734 before stalling and reversing. Fx Order Stacks (shorts) clearly seen at 1.5740, 1.5755-60, 1.5775-80, 1.5790-1.5810, 1.5825-30 and longs at 1.5675, 1.5650 With the UK GDP data coming out later, SM are likely to position prices in the unintended direction prior to the release. 

GU long levels: 1.5670, 1.5650, 1.5630-15, 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 1.26 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 25 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (83pips) bll closing near the high on low vol<20days. The candle close and volme suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: Euro's fundamentals remain weak. ECB Draghi's extremely dovish speech on Friday sent the Euro into a tailspin and SM spent yesterday fading weak shorts to restock short positions. Yesterday I wrote "SM will likely fade the weak shorts to around the breakout levels and then reverse downwards..." SM went as high as 1.2444 (our short term supply level identified was 1.2442) before stalling and reversing. So surely some of the sell order stacks at 1.2400 - 1.2500 have been absorbed. A large bunch of orders, possibly stops and fresh orders can be clearly seen at 1.2450 - 1.2475, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700  SM is likely to induce more weak shorts to the 1.2400 or lower before reversing to continue the restocking of short orders for the eventual push downwards.

EU long levels: 1.2400, 1.2380 

EU short levels: 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (85pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Background: The fundamentals are unchanged, there is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. SM faded weak shorts to the 1.5713 level before stalling and reversing. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test those the 1.5650 level or lower before reversing upwards to retest the 1.5734 pivot or higher.

GU long levels: 1.5650, 1.5630-15, 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 1.43 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 24 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Week- The candle is a normal spread (224pips) bear spinning top closing near the low on high vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Daily- The candle is a large spread (192pips) bear closing near the low on high vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2442, 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2515, 1.2545, 1.2565, 1.2600, 1.2632, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Order Book Stops: There are no clear significant stop order levels for shorts as many of the fortunate retail crowds benefited from Draghi's speech and either closed out their positions or took profits. Stacks of sell orders, possibly a combination of weak longs and late comers trying to enter the trade can be see at 1.2400 - 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700 Background: The Euro remains weak based on fundamentals. Last Friday, I wrote "SM is likely to test the 1.2600 level and higher before resuming the downtrend" but ECB Draghi's extremely dovish speech on Friday sent the Euro into a tailspin against just about every other currency and may just be the catalyst for resumption of the downtrend. Prices opened gapped down by about 26pips as SM removed weak longs before reversing back upward to fade weak shorts. After a huge move and after profit taking, with no significant orders located within easy striking distance above, SM will likely fade the weak shorts to around the breakout levels and then reverse downwards to resume the downtrend.

EU long levels: 1.2500, 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457, 1.2442 

EU short levels: 1.2550, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Weekly-  The candle is a small spread (146pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Day- The candle is a normal spread (87pips) bear large body spinning top closing on igh vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but with buying. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Background: The fundamentals remain the same, there is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The interest for a reversal in this pair would only come at these demand levels. ECB's Draghi's speech last Friday basically also caused USD to strengthen and GU was not spared. Prices opened gapped down by about 16pips and then reversed upwards. In fact last week I wrote "... maintain the selling pressure to around the 1.5655 - 1.5648 level before reversing to retest the yesterday's high..." but it actually went as low as 1.5624. With the bulk of traders trapped long, and stacks of orders nearby at the 1.5550 level, SM is likely to test those levels before reversing upwards.

GU long levels: 1.5630-15, 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 3.49 am EST

Daniel's trading results for October 2014

Testimonial from George from the first batch of students.

Thanks George!
I appreciate the email testimony.
Trek Trader aka Vincent

Skype chat with Prakash on 21 Nov 2014 after ECB President Draghi's speech

DAILY REVIEW 21 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a below average spread (70pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of sellers and more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2515, 1.2509, 1.2500, 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457 Order Book Stops: 1.2525, 1.2500 Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2632, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Order Book Stops: 1.2600, 1.2625 - 1.2660, 1.2700 Background: The Euro remains weak based on fundamentals. The past few days after the FOMC reveal a clear SM controlled level from 1.2500 - 1.2597. Yesterday I wrote "The induction of shorts at yesterday's low of 1.2511 and the subsequent trapping of breakout traders there or lower will confirm the SM bias remains long" and this process is still ongoing. SM is likely to test the 1.2600 level and higher before resuming the downtrend.

EU long levels: 1.2500, 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457, 1.2442 

EU short levels: 1.2550, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (104pips) bull spinning top closing on average vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of seller with more upside. Demand: Fx Order Stacks- 1.5650, 1.5630-15, 1.5580-60 Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Fx Order Stacks- 1.5750-60, 1.5780-1.5800, 1.5825 Background: With unchanged fundamentals, there is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The interest for a reversal in this pair would only come at these demand levels. Yesterday I wrote "continues to push upward to test the 1.5734 pivot or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend". As expected SM trapped breakout long traders turning at 1.5735 and fading back down to take their stops, building more long positions. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to around the 1.5655 - 1.5648 level before reversing to retest the yesterday's high or higher before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.5650, 1.5630-15, 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 1.49 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 20 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread narrow body spinning top closing on vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2500, 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457 Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2632, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: The fundamentals are unchanged and the Euro remains weak. As expected the FOMC minutes provided SM the fuel to spike up to take orders upto the 1.2597 level, just shy of the 1.2600 key level before retracing to wipe out the weak longs completely at the time of writing. So we have a clear SM controlled level from 1.2500 - 1.2597. The induction of shorts at yesterday's low of 1.2511 and the subsequent trapping of breakout traders there or lower will confirm the SM bias remains long. SM is likely to test the 1.2600 level and higher before resuming the downtrend.

EU long levels: 1.2500, 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457, 1.2442 

EU short levels: 1.2550, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a large spread (131pips) bull large ody spinning top. The candle close and volume suggests more upside but with the commencement of selling. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Background: The fundamentals remain unchanged and there is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The interest in this pair would only come at these demand levels. SM pushed to 1.5720 during the FOMC and has already trapped and taken out the breakout long traders' stops and then induced shorts at NY session low wheere breakout short traders are now trapped and likely to be taken out as continues to push upward to test the 1.5734 pivot or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. 

GU long levels: 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 6.09 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 19 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (101pips) bull closing almost at the high on low vol<16 days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457 Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2632, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: The fundamentals are unchanged Euro remains weak. SM wiped the board last Friday 1.2397 all the way to 1.2545 before reversing. We have the FOMC minutes later and SM will complete the test of the levels to re-stock short orders before resuming the downtrend so the SM cycle today is still Bias long but the trend is down. 

EU long levels: 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457, 1.2442 

EU short levels: 1.2550, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745

Watch video analysis here: 

The link will be live as soon as the update is complete. COMPLETED! 9.23am EST

GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a small spread (49pips) bear "tombstone closing on low vol<15days. The candle close and colume suggests more downside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Background: The fundamentals are unchanged prices are still in an "inside day" of yesterday. There is really no demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The interest in this pair would only come at these demand levels or a retrace to the breakout level 1.5800 or higher. After the MPC minutes release, SM trapped shorts at the 1.5591 pivot and reversed. Yesterday I wrote "I repeat yesterday's analysis that SM is likely to keep selling pressure to test the current 1.5591 low or the 1.5561 pivot before reversing back to fade weak shorts." This is now in progress and SM is likely to test the 1.5734 pivot or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. 

GU long levels: 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 7.27 am EST