DAILY REVIEW 17 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Weekly- The candle is a blow average spread (152pips) bull closing near the high on high vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside but with reducing buying pressure. Daily- The candle is a large spread (147pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457 Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2632, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: The fundamentals remain unchanged with Euro weakness still prevalent. SM wiped the board last Friday inducing weak shorts on the CPI release and trapping them pushing back upwards past the 1.2532 pivot to 1.2545 before reversing. Prices have already pushed higher to 1.2577 in Asia and look to be reversing. In essence, SM has also snared long breakout traders from the 1.2532 pivot and also the 1.2576 pivot today and are in the process of taking out their stops, this is now in progress. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around the 1.2472 level or lower before reversing to test the day high at 1.2577.

EU long levels: 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457 

EU short levels: 1.2532, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Week - The candle is a large spread (352pips) bull large body spinning top. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but profit taking commenced. Day- The candle is a normal spread (118pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but the profit taking suggests price is close to a possible turn level, possibly for retracement or reversal. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Background: The fundamentals have not changed either and prices have tanked after making a high of 1.5734 in Asia. There is really no demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The interest in this pair would only come at these demand levels or a retrace to the breakout level 1.5800 or higher. SM is likely to keep selling pressure to test the current 1.5591 low or the 1.5561 pivot before reversing back to fade weak shorts. A close below the 1.5561 pivot will mean more downside toward the 1.5426 level. 

GU long levels: 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 4.47 am EST