DAILY REVIEW 30 November 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (123pips) bear closing slightly off the low on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling pressure.

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (69pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside,

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Euro has remained under pressure with a US rate rise still on the table for December. Post NDP, price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

The Oanda order book shows more newly trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: 1.0652-1.0680

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0559-1.0530, 1.0492-1.0476
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0580-1.0590, 1.0684-1.0712

US Housing data will be the main driver today. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.0685 level or higher before continuing down.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.5094-1.0617, 1.0670, 1.0710, 1.0725-1.0731, 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (167pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (80pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3days. The candle close suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows profitable short positions and newly trapped shorts. 

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5026-1.5017, 1.4990-1.4980

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5029-1.5040, 1.5048-1.5062, 1.56074-1.5083, 1.5109-1.5120, 1.5154-1.5168

Volume is really thin and it is month-end today so SM will take profit and probably whip up and down unexpectedly. Main UK news will be tomorrow so prices will be positioned prior to the news.  SM is likely to fade weak shorts up to around 1.5050 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5025, 1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5050, 1.5090, 1.5135, 1.5154-1.5166

Posted at 5.43 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 27 November 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (146pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a very small spread (27pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<25days. The candle close suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Euro has remained under pressure with a US rate rise still on the table for December. Post NDP, price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: 1.0652-1.0680

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0566-1.0521, 1.0492-1.0476
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0609-1.0820, 1.0682-1.0712, 1.0778-1.0787, 1.0830-1.0855

Totally no activity yesterday and the volume confirms it. No major news release today, SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.0611 level or higher before continuing down.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.0617, 1.0670, 1.0710, 1.0725-1.0731, 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (181pips) bear upthrust closing off the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests selling and more downside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (64pips) bear hammer closing on high vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows profitable short positions and newly trapped shorts. 

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5026-1.5017, 1.4990-1.4980

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5126-1.5136, 1.5146-1.5158

Volume is really thin and it is month-end this week so SM will take profit and probably whip up and down unexpectedly. SM is likely to fade weak shorts up to around 1.5090 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5025, 1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5090, 1.5135, 1.5154-1.5166, 1.5207-1.5220, 1.5290-1.5315, 1.5340, 1.5355-1.5375, 1.5415

Posted at 6.41 am EST