DAILY REVIEW 28 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (83pips) bull closing off the low on low vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term-  1.3684 – 1.3676, 1.3668 – 1.3654,  1.3600 – 1.3605 (Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Supply: 1.3787 – 1.3818. The Asian range is 1.3693 – 1.3714 currently. SM has cleared supply above and continued the re-accumulation. SM will likely fade weak longs to around short term demand at 1.3685 or lower before they reverse northward.   Being the end of the month, month-end flows may come in and price may whipsaw somewhat as profits are booked and accounts squared. A close below 1.3642 would likely mean more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3685, 1.3668, 1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3800 – 1.3817

GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (82pips) bull “hammer” closing just off the high on low vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests selling and it is an SM bear trap being setup.  Unchanged Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term- 1.6655, previous Asia low 1.6638, 1.6573 – 1.6555, 1.6514 – 1.6533, 1.6401 – 1.6490, 1.6354, 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level. The Asian range is 1.6675 – 1.6697. SM likely to induce long breakout traders to the 1.6700 key level or higher, then reverse to build long positions by fading them to around the short term demand at 1.6650 – 1.6643 before reversing northwards. The orders look stacked and ready to go up.
GU long levels:  1.6655, 1.6645, 1.6638, 1.6575, 1.6514, 1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:   1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 1.33 am EST

I was unwell and knocked out yesterday. Normal service will resume today.

DAILY REVIEW 26 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (51pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>2day. The candle close and the volume suggests selling but real estate belongs to SM and smells of a bear trap. Unchanged Levels of interest: Demand: short term-  1.3692 – 1.3715,  1.3600 – 1.3605 (Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Supply: 1.3787 – 1.3818. The Asian range is 1.3728 – 1.3744. SM has triggered breakout traders above Asia high and also below Asia low. SM is likely to test short term demand at 1.3724 and reverse northward.   A close below 1.3672 would likely mean more downside.
EU long levels:  1.3724, 1.3700, 1.3685, 1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3800 – 1.3817

GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (84pips) bull closing about ½ off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests selling and but it smacks of a typical SM bear trap being setup.  Continued unchanged Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 short-term supply: 1.6700 – 1.6724 Demand:  short-term- 1.6645, previous Asia low 1.6638, 1.6573 – 1.6555, 1.6514 – 1.6533, 1.6401 – 1.6490, 1.6354, 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level. The Asian range is 1.6668 – 1.666689. SM likely to test the short term demand at 1.6650 – 1.6643 before reversing northwards. Orders look stacked and ready to go up.
GU long levels:  1.6645, 1.6638, 1.6575, 1.6514, 1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6722 1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 6.04 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 25 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (63pips) bull near-doji closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and the volume suggests a bear trap about to be sprung. Unchanged Levels of interest: Demand: short term-  1.3692 – 1.3715,  1.3600 – 1.3605 (Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Supply: 1.3787 – 1.3818. The Asian range is 1.3728 – 1.3744. SM continued to accumulate as written yesterday to “around the 1.3720 level (actual 1.3707) before heading back north.” SM is currently pushing up and is likely to test yesterday’s high or close to it before reversing back down to the 1.3700 key level or lower before reversing north if the aggregate buy orders are still insufficient. Alternatively, if the orders are stacked up, we could see a push up to the 1.3800 – 1.3817 level where it may reverse and fall back to around previous breakout level of 1.3724 and reverse northward.   A close below 1.3672 would likely mean more downside.
EU long levels:  1.3724, 1.3700, 1.3685, 1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3800 – 1.3817

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (95pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests no demand and but it smacks of a typical SM bear trap being setup.  Continued unchanged Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 short-term supply: 1.6700 – 1.6724 Demand:  short-term previous Asia low 1.6638 (H1 ema200 confluence) 1.6573 – 1.6555, 1.6514 – 1.6533, 1.6401 – 1.6490, 1.6354, 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level. The Asian range is 1.6644 – 1.6682. SM cleared demand to 1.6582 yesterday opening the way to the demand at 1.6514 – 1.6533 if it breaks low. SM had clearly been stocking long inventory and therefore likely to test the short term supply at 1.6700 – 1.6724 before reversing to the 1.6700 and lower if a reversal is in place. Alternatively, a break past 1.6724 will see a test of the 1.6823 daily supply level. There is really no change from yesterday as the orders are still not stacked up.
GU long levels:  1.6638, 1.6575, 1.6514, 1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6722 1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 4.07 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 24 Feb 2014
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (87pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests “no demand”. The Daily candle is a small spread (56pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<3days. It is a “no demand candle but the candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests a SM markup/bear trap. Levels of interest: Demand: short term-  1.3692 – 1.3715,  1.3600 – 1.3605 (Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Supply: 1.3787 – 1.3818. The Asian range is 1.3713 – 1.3724 currently. Last week, I wrote “The move is on increased volume and suggests that re-stocking for the push north has already commenced.” SM actually did a clean-out of weak longs on Friday. SM is likely to fade weak shorts up to the 1.3770 level before reversing to Asia low or around the 1.3720 level before heading back north.   A close below 1.3672 would likely mean more downside.
EU long levels:  1.3685, 1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3800 – 1.3817

GU: Weekly- the candle is below-average bear closing at the low on low vol<4weeks with weekly volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (113pips) bear upthrust closing on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.  Largely unchanged Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 short-term supply: 1.6700 – 1.6724 Demand:  short-term 1.6573 – 1.6555, 1.6514 – 1.6533, 1.6401 – 1.6490, 1.6354, 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level. The Asian range is 1.6613 – 1.6650. SM has already taken stops below the 1.6700 key level . SM is likely to test the short term supply at 1.6700 – 1.6724 before reversing to the 1.6700 and lower if a reversal is in place. Alternatively, a break past 1.6724 will see a test of the 1.6823 daily supply level. 
GU long levels:  1.6575, 1.6514, 1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6722 1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 4.02 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 21 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (77pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests buying. Levels of interest remain unchanged: Demand: short term-  1.3600 – 1.3605 (Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Supply: 1.3787 – 1.3818. The Asian range is 1.3713 – 1.3724 currently. Prices made a new low yesterday taking out any weak longs from Monday after closing past the gap close of Friday at 1.3692 down to 1.3685 removing any longs remaining for the  current week. The move is on increased volume and suggests that re-stocking for the push north has already commenced. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.3695 or test the yesterday low at 1.3685 before reversing upwards. A close below 1.3672 would likely mean more downside.
EU long levels:  1.3685, 1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3800

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (75pips) bear spinning top on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests a possible commencement of re-accumulation but based on price action and volume may hunt lower with the upcoming UK news. Largely unchanged Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term 1.6643 – 1.6221, 1.6573 – 1.6555, 1.6514 – 1.6533, 1.6401 – 1.6490, 1.6354, 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level. The Asian range is 1.6664 – 1.6671. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to fade weak longs by testing yesterday’s low or around the 1.6700 key level  before reversing upwards to test the 1.6823 daily supply level.. 
GU long levels:  1.6700, 1.6623, 1.6598, 1.6575, 1.6514, 1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 4.10 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 20 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (50pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest remain largely unchanged: Demand: short term-  1.3600 – 1.3605 (Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Supply: 1.3787 – 1.3818. The Asian range is 1.3756 – 1.3772 currently. Prices made a new low yesterday on the FOMC news and the risk aversion sentiment created. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.3670 – 1.3657 before reversing upwards. A close below 1.3657 would likely mean more downside.
EU long levels:  1.3672, 1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3800

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (86pips) bear spinning top on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests a commencement of re-accumulation but based on price action and volume may hunt lower. Largely unchanged Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term 1.6643 – 1.6221, 1.6573 – 1.6555, 1.6514 – 1.6533, 1.6401 – 1.6490, 1.6354, 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level. The Asian range is 1.6664 – 1.6688. SM cleared the TR 1.6653 – 1.6726 using news and reversed on FOMC and continued during Asia. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to fade weak longs by pushing lower to possibly the 1.6000 level before reversing upwards to test the 1.6823 daily supply level as it appears that they are already accumulating in the current and may not go all the way down to 1.6570. 
GU long levels:  1.6598, 1.6575, 1.6514, 1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 5.22 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 19 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (75pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>2days with continued daily volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest remain unchanged: Demand: short term- 1.3672 (Friday Asia low), 1.3600 – 1.3605 (Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Supply: 1.3787 – 1.3818. The Asian range is 1.3756 – 1.3772 currently. Yesterday, I wrote “SM is likely to breakout long and continue the northward journey”.  SM is likely to continue buying pressure to take out weak shorts and test the 1.3800 – 1.3818 level  before reversing back down for the “reversal” which is likely to be a restock of inventory for another push back up. Therefore another break and close above 1.3820 will mean more upside to the 1.3900 level.
EU long levels:  1.3672, 1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3800

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (86pips) bear spinning top on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests a commencement of re-accumulation. Unchanged Levels of interest: Short-term. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term 1.6643 – 1.6221, 1.6573 – 1.6555, 1.6514 – 1.6533, 1.6401 – 1.6490, 1.6354, 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level. The Asian range is 1.6677 – 1.6693 currently. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs by pushing lower to possibly the 1.6640 level before reversing upwards to test the 1.6823 daily supply level as it appears that they are already accumulating in the current TR 1.6653 – 1.6726 and may not go all the way down to the the 1.6570. 
GU long levels:  1.6640, 1.6600, 1.6575, 1.6514, 1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 1.42 am EST

I just thought that it will be good to do a video on the importance of Profit Ratio as many people don't seem to understand just how important it is. I believe that you will enjoy it.
Regards
Trek Trader

DAILY REVIEW 18 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (32pips) bear “near-doji” on very low vol<35days with daily volume divergence. The candle close and pattern of “evening star suggests more downside but the volume suggests a bear trap in place. Levels of interest (unchanged): Demand: short term- 1.3672 (Friday Asia low), 1.3600 – 1.3605 (Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Supply: 1.3787 – 1.3818. The Asian range is 1.3694 – 1.3716. Yesterday, I wrote “the daily pin bar looks like more and more of a bear trap”. SM is likely to breakout long and continue the northward journey. 
EU long levels:  1.3672, 1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3678, 1.3695, 1.3800

GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (126pips) bear upthrust closing off the low on low vol<4days with volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but hints there may be a commencement of re-accumulation. Levels of interest: Short-term. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term 1.6643 – 1.6221, 1.6573 – 1.6555, 1.6514 – 1.6533, 1.6401 – 1.6490, 1.6354, 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level. The Asian range is 1.6709 – 1.6740. It is clear that there is no fresh supply from novices for SM to head north yet and price held in a tight range during Asia. Price has broken out downwards as expected. SM is likely to push low as there are not many weak buyers in the market at current levels with the 1.6570 or even lower at the 1.6500 levels the likely destination for a possible re-accumulation.
GU long levels:  1.6514, 1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 3.53 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 17 Feb 2014
EU: Weekly- the candle is a below average spread (152pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure. The Daily candle is a small spread (40pips) bull “upthrust” on low vol<3days with daily volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest(unchanged): Demand: short term- 1.3672 (Friday Asia low), 1.3600 – 1.3605 (Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Supply: 1.3787 – 1.3818. The Asian range is 1.3692 – 1.3723. Prices gapped up about 18pips today and the gap has been closed. The daily pin bar looks like more and more of a bear trap and SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.3672 or lower and reverse back upwards after restocking new inventory from the weak longs and continue the northward journey. 
EU long levels:  1.3672, 1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3678, 1.3695, 1.3800

GU: Weekly- the candle is a large spread (373pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<3weeks with volume divergence. The candle close suggests more upside but the volume is technically a No demand or “no buying pressure”. The Daily candle is a above-average spread (111pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<3days with continued volume divergence. The candle close more upside and volume suggests No demand or “no buying pressure”. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term 1.6514 – 1.6533 (confluence H1 ema200), 1.6401 – 1.6490, 1.6354, 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level
The Asian range is 1.6745 – 1.6823. Most broker platforms report the highest level of shorts to date. However, the COT data seems to indicate that commercials have not really started shorting yet suggesting that even at the current demand level, GU may only be taking a breather as SM absorbs the shorts coming into the market. The likely scenario this week may be a reversal of GU backdown to the 1.6500 level to re-accumulate for a fresh assault on the 1.700 level.  The supply at 1.6745 level has been absorbed as SM gapped up over the weekend continued to the next supply level at 1.6822 where it seems to have reversed. Owing to the lack of retail longs in the market, SM is likely to continue to retest the current high or even to the next supply level at 1.6835 by maintaining buying pressure before reversing and taking profit downward to the 1.6500 level.
GU long levels:  1.6514, 1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 3.57 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 14 Feb 2014
My apologies I forgot to post yesterday’s review. Today is the last day of Chinese New Year. Wishing all my Chinese readers a wonderfully prosperous Chinese New Year 2014.

GU: Daily Supply has been reached. Look for a short setup and hold for +150 -200pips
 GU short levels:  1.6722 – 1.6745

Posted at 7.43 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 12 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (53pips) upthrust on low vol>1day with daily volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest are unchanged: Demand: short term: 1.3600 – 1.3605 (confluence H1 ema200 and Friday Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (confluence H1 ema200, daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Short term supply: 1.3684 – 1.3700. The Asian range is 1.3625 – 1.3646. SM used news yesterday to remove weak shorts at the short-term supply of 1.3682 and reversed for the longs in about a 50pips sweep. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to remove remaining long breakout traders at 1.3590 or lower and reverse back upwards after restocking new inventory from the weak longs and continue the northward trek. 
EU long levels:  1.3590, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3678, 1.3695, 1.3800

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (94pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol>1days with volume divergence. The candle close suggests selling and volume suggests there may be a commencement of re-accumulation. Unchanged Levels of interest: Short-term supply level 1.6487 – 1.6500 (confluence:  Fib 50% @ 1.6487), 1.6550 – 1.6560, 1.6600 – 1.6625, 1.6650 – 1.6667 Demand:  short-term 1.6401 – 1.6490 (confluence H1 ema200), 1.6354 (confluence Fib 23.6% and Friday Asia breakout), 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level
The Asian range is 1.6440 – 1.6474. SM continued to take out weak shorts and reversed at short term supply. SM have again removed weak short to the 1.6474 level and are now creating selling pressure to take out the weak longs (stragglers from NFP last week) as there may be some still not taken out yet. SM is likely to continue to remove weak longs by maintaining selling pressure to re-accumulation breakout level  1.6416 or lower to fade weak longs before reversing and resuming the journey north.
GU long levels:  1.6400, 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6360, 1.6487, 1.6550, 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667

Posted at 3.03 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 11 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (36pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<14days with daily volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3600 – 1.3605 (confluence H1 ema200 and Frisay Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (confluence H1 ema200, daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Short term supply: 1.3684 – 1.3700. The Asian range is 1.3639 – 1.3678 currently. SM took out weak shorts from Friday’s high and continued inducing weak longs. SM is likely to test the short term supply level to 1.3678 or higher before reversing to fade weak longs further by inducing weak shorts past Asia low to the 1.3600 key level or lower and then reverse back upwards after restocking new inventory from the weak longs and then punishing the weak shorts. 
EU long levels:  1.3605, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3678, 1.3695, 1.3800

GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (44pips) bull “evening star” closing on low vol<14days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Short-term supply level 1.6487 – 1.6500 (confluence:  Fib 50% @ 1.6487), 1.6550 – 1.6560, 1.6600 – 1.6625, 1.6650 – 1.6667 Demand:  short-term 1.6354 (confluence Fib 23.6% and Friday Asia breakout), 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level
The Asian range is 1.6398 – 1.6433. SM took out weak shorts from Friday and are now creating selling pressure to take out the weak longs. SM is likely to continue to remove weak longs by maintaining selling pressure to yesterday’s low or lower to fade weak longs before reversing and resuming the north bound journey.
GU long levels:  1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6360, 1.6487, 1.6550, 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667
Posted at 1.36 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 10 Feb 2014
EU: Weekly:- the candle is a below-average spread (166pips) bull closing just off the high on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggest more upside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (91pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3600 – 1.3605 (confluence H1 ema200 and Frisay Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (confluence M15 ema200), 1.3559 – 1.3550 Short term supply: 1.3660 – 1.3671. The Asian range is 1.3614 – 1.3643. As expected, SM moved north on weak NFP numbers and is on its way back up. SM is likely to test the short term supply level to 1.3660 or higher before reversing to fade weak longs to Asia low or lower and then reverse back upwards after restocking new inventory. 
EU long levels:  1.3605, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3660, 1.3800

GU: Weekly- the candle is a close to average spread (188pips) bear dragon fly doji closing on average vol<1week. The candle close suggests buying but the location suggests some possible mark down before reversing back up. The Daily candle is a normal spread (116pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<7days. The candle close suggests more upside and the volume suggests no buying pressure or technically a “no demand”. Levels of interest: Short-term supply level 1.6487 – 1.6500 (confluence:  Fib 50% @ 1.6487), 1.6550 – 1.6560, 1.6600 – 1.6625, 1.6650 – 1.6667 Demand:  short-term 1.6354 (confluence Fib 23.6% and FrIday Asia breakout)), 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level
The Asian range is 1.6309 – 1.6426. As expected SM moved prices northward on NFP numbers and are now retracing. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure and induce more shorts toward the Friday Asia breakout level or lower to fade weak longs before reversing and resuming the north bound move.
GU long levels:  1.6354, 1.6330, 1.6300 GU short levels:  1.6360, 1.6487, 1.6550, 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667
Posted at 5.15 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 7 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (136pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests a possible reversal. Unchanged Levels of interest: Daily Demand: 1.3405 – 1.3398, 1.3355 – 1.3344, 1.3318 – 1.3294 Short term supply: 1.3655 – 1.3665. The Asian range is 1.3580 – 1.3594. SM moved EU up during ECB’s Draghi’s speech after good US news taking out stops of weak longs and reversing back upwards with fresh inventory. SM has since reversed at the short term supply of 1.3606 – 1.3623 identified earlier and the effect of the move out of demand suggests a reversal and it is likely for SM to induce shorts taking profit as they move back down to test the breakout level at 1.3530 or lower before reversing upward to continue the mark up. With NFP tonight, we can expect false moves most likely culminating in a northbound movement.
EU long levels:  1.3480, 1.3405, 1.3355, 1.3318 EU short levels: 1.3606, 1.3655

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (75pips) bear dragon fly doji closing on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Again, unchanged Levels of interest: Short-term supply level 1.6487 – 1.6500 (confluence:  Fib 50% @ 1.6487), 1.6550 – 1.6560, 1.6615 – 1.6630, 1.6650 – 1.6667 Daily Demand:  1.6260 - 1.6250 (current low), 1.6225 – 1.6215
The Asian range is 1.6316 – 1.6357. If SM moves to the supply at 1.6487 – 1.6500 pre-NFP, they will likely fade the weak shorts and retest the breakout at 1.6325 before reversing back upwards. If they maintain the current range, they will likely test the current lows or lower before reversing for a possible reversal.
GU long levels:  1.6251, 1.6220 GU short levels:  1.6360, 1.6487, 1.6550, 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667

DAILY REVIEW 6 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (58pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests a possible slowing selling. Unchanged Levels of interest: Daily Demand: 1.3405 – 1.3398, 1.3355 – 1.3344, 1.3318 – 1.3294 Short term supply: 1.3606 – 1.3623, 1.3655 – 1.3665. The Asian range is 1.3514 – 1.3539. SM is likely to fade weak longs upto the Fib 50% @ 1.3595 (confluence with key level 1.3600 and short terms supply levels) before reversing down again to test the current lows at around 1.3480 or lower, if prices tests the current lows, it will likely push to the daily demand and ema200 level.
EU long levels:  1.3480, 1.3405, 1.3355, 1.3318 EU short levels: 1.3606, 1.3655

GU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (8ppips) bear reverse upthrust closing on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume is technically a “supply” or no selling pressure and suggests more upside. Again, unchanged Levels of interest: Short-term supply level 1.6487 – 1.6500 (confluence:  Fib 50% @ 1.6487), 1.6550 – 1.6560, 1.6615 – 1.6630, 1.6650 – 1.6667 Daily Demand:  1.6255 (current low), 1.6225 – 1.6215
The Asian range is 1.6293 – 1.6328. SM is likely to fade weak longs up and perhaps trigger shorts at yesterday’s low or lower to daily demand before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels:  1.6251, 1.6220 GU short levels:  1.6360, 1.6487, 1.6550, 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667

DAILY REVIEW 5 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (45pips) bear almost hammer-like closing on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests a possible slowing selling. Unchanged Levels of interest: Daily Demand: 1.3405 – 1.3398, 1.3355 – 1.3344, 1.3318 – 1.3294 Short term supply: 1.3606 – 1.3623, 1.3655 – 1.3665. The Asian range is 1.3503 – 1.3538. Although there is the possibility that SM may reverse from another test of the current lows, I still take the view that EU is still likely to test the daily ema200 @ 1.3426 which has confluence with the daily demand level just below at around 1.3405. Asia range is 1.3498 – 1.3526 currently. If price breaks and closes above the 1.3537 level, SM is likely to fade weak shorts upto the Fib 50% @ 1.3595 (confluence with key level 1.3600 and short terms supply levels) before reversing down again to test the current lows at around 1.3480 or lower, if prices tests the current lows, it will likely push to the daily demand and ema200 level.
EU long levels:  1.3480, 1.3405, 1.3355, 1.3318 EU short levels: 1.3606, 1.3655

GU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (87pips) bull spinning top-like closing on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume is technically a “no demand” or no buying pressure and suggests more downside. Unchanged Levels of interest: Short-term supply level 1.6487 – 1.6500 (confluence:  Fib 50% @ 1.6487), 1.6550 – 1.6560, 1.6615 – 1.6630, 1.6650 – 1.6667 Daily Demand:  1.6255 (current low), 1.6225 – 1.6215
The Asian range is 1.6319 – 1.6340 currently. SM is likely to fade weak longs up to short term demand around 1.6276 before reversing back upwards if price is going further north as the daily trendline confluence comes into play. Otherwise, further fading of weak shorts to the short term supply at 1.6360 and reversing down from there to test the lows and lower at the daily demand levels is likely.
GU long levels:  1.6276, 1.6255, 1.6220 GU short levels:  1.6360, 1.6487, 1.6550, 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667

DAILY REVIEW 4 Feb 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (58pips) bull off the high on very high vol<3days with continued bullish divergence. The candle close suggests more upside but the volume although high is a “no demand or no buying pressure” type volume and suggests a likely upward test. Unchanged Levels of interest: Daily Demand: 1.3405 – 1.3398, 1.3355 – 1.3344, 1.3318 – 1.3294 Short term supply: 1.3606 – 1.3623, 1.3655 – 1.3665. The Asian range is 1.3503 – 1.3538. Technically EU is still in an uptrend on the weekly and monthly chart and price is likely to test the daily ema200 @ 1.3424 which has confluence with the daily demand level just below at around 1.3405. SM looks is likely to fade weak shorts upto the Fib 50% @ 1.3595 (confluence with key level 1.3600 and short terms supply levels) before reversing down again to test the current lows at around 1.3480 or lower.
EU long levels:  1.3480, 1.3405, 1.3355, 1.3318 EU short levels: 1.3606, 1.3655

GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (150pips) bear closing just off the low on average vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 
Levels of interest: Short-term supply level 1.6487 – 1.6500 (confluence:  Fib 50% @ 1.6487), 1.6550 – 1.6560, 1.6615 – 1.6630, 1.6650 – 1.6667 Daily Demand:  1.6255 (current low), 1.6225 – 1.6215
The Asian range is 1.6255 – 1.6314. GU is still in a technical uptrend testing the daily trend line. Price has exceeded 3xADR and the possibility of reversal exists. SM is likely to fade weak shorts up to short term supply around 1.6487 before reversing back down to test the current lows or the next daily demand level.
GU long levels: 1.6255, 1.6220 GU short levels:  1.6487, 1.6550, 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667

Carlos O's Testimonial

DAILY REVIEW 3 Feb 2014
EU: Monthly – the candle is a regular spread (296pips) bear closing just off the low on vol>5 months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Weekly- the candle is a above-average spread (237pips) bear closing just off the low on very high vol>25weeks.  The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (94pips) bear on very high vol>1day with continued bullish divergence. The combination of the candle close and volume suggests more downside can be expected but the downward momentum may be slowing. Levels of interest: Daily Demand: 1.3405 – 1.3398, 1.3355 – 1.3344, 1.3318 – 1.3294 Short term supply: 1.3535, 1.3550, 1.3655 – 1.3665. Last Thursday I wrote” EU is in a technical uptrend but a H1 close below 1.3500 may mean more downside but is unlikely.”  Since then, EU has broken and closed below the 1.3500 level. It could be a host of reasons but that reinforces the discipline of only trading at the right levels with setups no matter what our bias may be. Prices opened with a small gap down that has since been closed and trading in a tight range. The Asian range is 1.3479 – 1.3494 currently. Technically EU looks to still be in an uptrend on the weekly and monthly chart. However, the daily technical uptrend looks to have been compromised and price may test the daily ema200 @ 1.3424 which has confluence with the daily demand level just below at around 1.3405. SM looks to have absorbed demand for the past 6 days and would be likely to fade weak shorts before proceeding further down. If SM fails to move above 1.3522 – 1.3535, we should see a deeper push down to the 1.3400 level. However, SM may also take prices higher to the 1.3645 – 1.3660 level before reversing down again.
EU long levels:  1.3405, 1.3355, 1.3318 EU short levels: 1.3535, 1.3550, 1.3655

GU: Monthly- the candle is a normal spread (359pips) bear spinning top closing on below-average vol>4months. Based on the location, the candle close and volume suggest buying into the candle. Weekly- the candle is a below-average spread (198pips) bear upthrust closing on high vol>7weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a below average spread (71pips) bear long-body spinning top closing just off the low on high vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but note that there is compression setting in as price reaches demand levels. 
Levels of interest: Short-term supply level  1.6487 – 1.6500 (confluence:  Fib 50% @ 1.6487), 1.6550 – 1.6560, 1.6615 – 1.6630, 1.6650 – 1.6667 Demand: 1.6418 – 1.6395, 1.6325 – 1.6308, 1.6225 – 1.6215
The Asian range is 1.6414 – 1.6439 currently. Note that GU is still in a technical uptrend. Price is at a retest of the previous re-accumulation TR 1.6394 – 1.6457. Price opened with a 20pip gap below Friday’s close that has since been closed. SM is likely to fade weak shorts before reversing back down to the demand levels before a possible reversal back upwards. A level to watch would be the Fib 88.6% @ 1.6349 as by then price would have travelled about 3xADR.
GU long levels:  1.6474, 1.6415, 1.6395, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6280 GU short levels:  1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667

31 Jan 2014

Wishing all my readers and followers a HAPPY CHINESE NEW YEAR 2014!