EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (36pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<14days with daily volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3600 – 1.3605 (confluence H1 ema200 and Frisay Asia breakout), 1.3590 – 1.3584 (confluence H1 ema200, daily trend-line 1.3580), 1.3563 – 1.3550 Short term supply: 1.3684 – 1.3700. The Asian range is 1.3639 – 1.3678 currently. SM took out weak shorts from Friday’s high and continued inducing weak longs. SM is likely to test the short term supply level to 1.3678 or higher before reversing to fade weak longs further by inducing weak shorts past Asia low to the 1.3600 key level or lower and then reverse back upwards after restocking new inventory from the weak longs and then punishing the weak shorts.
EU long levels: 1.3605, 1.3585, 1.3559 EU short levels: 1.3678, 1.3695, 1.3800
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (44pips) bull “evening star” closing on low vol<14days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Short-term supply level 1.6487 – 1.6500 (confluence: Fib 50% @ 1.6487), 1.6550 – 1.6560, 1.6600 – 1.6625, 1.6650 – 1.6667 Demand: short-term 1.6354 (confluence Fib 23.6% and Friday Asia breakout), 1.6330 – 1.6320, 1.6300 key level
The Asian range is 1.6398 – 1.6433. SM took out weak shorts from Friday and are now creating selling pressure to take out the weak longs. SM is likely to continue to remove weak longs by maintaining selling pressure to yesterday’s low or lower to fade weak longs before reversing and resuming the north bound journey.
GU long levels: 1.6354, 1.6440, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6360, 1.6487, 1.6550, 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667
Posted at 1.36 am EST
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