DAILY REVIEW 29 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (54pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing on very low vol<27days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests no buying interest. Levels of interest:  Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 The Asian range is 1.3599 – 1.3621 currently. Price has broken yesterday’s high with SM springing the bear trap mentioned yesterday trapping shorts and already removed lots of weak longs. Price has kissed the Fib 23.8% level and looks like it has stalled here with bearish volume divergence. Today being Friday and the last working day of the month means we can expect month-end flows. We have seen consecutive 3 days of rise since Tuesday this week and about 224pips from the swing low to current swing high. Thinking aloud, is it possible that SM is going to have a mid-week reversal today or even a full blown reversal? It looks like SM has established a new TR 1.3559 – 1.3621 from which to launch a fresh assault on the highs. SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce shorts and remove weak longs until around the 1.3580 or even 1.3564 level before reversing back upwards. 
EU long levels:  1.3580, 1.3564, 1.3557 EU short levels:  1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780 


GU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (80pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing on low vol<2days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests more upside. Price has broken yesterday’s high and the Asian range is 1.6330 – 1.6373 currently. Like EU, GU has also seen 3 consecutive days of rise with about 235pips from the swing low to swing high. With a new high in place and a likely continuation of higher prices to close out the month, SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to induce shorts as well as fade the weak longs to book profits then reverse upward to fade the new shorts and book in more profits to close out the day on a higher high.
GU long levels:  1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527

DAILY REVIEW 28 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (55pips) bull upthrust pin closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest:  Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 The Asian range is 1.3563 – 1.3585 currently. Nothing has really changed except that SM look like they are not yet ready to push up strongly. As for the the daily upthrust candle, the position of the candle is in no-man’s land. This is likely a bear trap by SM to snare traders short on retest of the high up to yesterday’s high or even around the Fib 23.8% level and then reverse to around the 1.3557 level before reversing back upwards. With barely 10 pips between the two levels, SM can snare both long breakout traders, support/resistance traders as well as the Fib traders. 
EU long levels:  1.3557, 1.3542, 1.3530 EU short levels:  1.3612, 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780 


GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (130pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>3days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests more upside. Price is close to yesterday’s high and the Asian range is 1.6276 – 1.6326 SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test or spike the current day high to induce shorts then reverse downward to fade weak longs before reversing upwards.
GU long levels:  1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6329 (short term only), 1.6353, 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527

DAILY REVIEW 27 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (60pips) bull closing at the top on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Some analyst’s headlines state “Forex Crowds Grow Further Short EURUSD”. Price has broken and held above TR1 high 1.3578 with the Asian range 1.3557 – 1.3598 currently. Levels of interest:  Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Prices have already broken yesterday’s high and SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.3600 key level to induce longs and then reversing downwards to fade the weak longs and later reverse back upward into the new “uptrend”. 
EU long levels:  1.3557, 1.3542, 1.3530 EU short levels:  1.3608, 1.3625, 1.3695


GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (80pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Price has broken yesterday’s high with a daily close at 1.6113 (above previous Asia breakout level of 1.6209) and the Asian range is 1.6198 – 1.6229 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the current day high or this week’s high 1.6239 before reversing downward to fade weak and reload inventory before reversing upwards.
GU long levels:  1.6196, 1.6177, 1.6144 GU short levels: 1.6239 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 26 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (70pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on low  vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. Most analysts’ platforms still show an increase in net short positions. Price is still within TR1: 1.3498 – 1.3578 with the Asian range 1.3514 – 1.3540 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test yesterday’s or Friday’s high to induce longs before reversing downwards to fade the weak longs then reverse back upward. 
EU long levels:  1.3559 (if price breaks and closes above 1.3578 during London and retests), 1.3537, 1.3515, 13500 EU short levels:  1.3578, 1.3695


GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (107pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<6days. The candle close does suggest some downside but the volume suggests that this move was a SM fade to remove weak longs.  The Asian range is 1.6144 – 1.6191 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.6209 Asia breakout level before reversing downward to retest yesterday’s low and reload inventory, before reversing upwards.
GU long levels:  1.6144, 1.6133, 1.6102  GU short levels: 1.6239 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 25 Nov 2013
EU: Weekly – the candle is a small spread (180pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (117pips) bull closing just off the high on low  vol<3days. Price is still within TR1: 1.3498 – 1.3578 today (refer to last Friday’s review).  Most analysts’ platforms show an increase in net short positions. Levels of interest: 1.3517 (H4 ema200) 1.3500 key level. The Asian range is 1.3534 – 1.3559 currently. SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce more shorts possibly to 1.3500 key level before reversing upwards. 
EU long levels:  1.3533, 1.3515, 13500, 1.3461 EU short levels:  1.3578, 1.3695


GU: Weekly – the candle is a small spread (186pips) bull closing at the high on average vol >12days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside to test the supply levels at around 1.6280 The Daily candle is a small spread (51pips) bull closing at the high on high vol<3days with bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests more upside but volume suggests no demand.  Price opened slightly gapped up today but has since closed and the Asian range is 1.6204 – 1.6239 currently. On the weekly chart, price had tested the supply zone around 1.6280 THREE times previously. SM is likely to create selling pressure to reload inventory, perhaps to around the 1.6183 level before reversing upwards.
GU long levels:  1.6180, 1.6167, 1.6133, 1.6102  GU short levels: 1.6239 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 22 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (87pips) bull closing just off the high on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Prices barely moved  on strong US Home Sales yesterday and reversed on poor Philly news. Even talk of negative interest by ECB personnel barely moved the prices any lower, instead it closed way above Wednesday’s low smack in the middle of Wednesday’s price action. Even talk of US FED tapering failed to make any impact leaving us an “inside day” situation. It will be best to look at possible trading ranges-  TR1: 1.3498 – 1.3578 TR2: 1.3398 – 1.3498 Trap Zone: 1.3480 – 1.3504 (if you notice this gap has been used to trap traders long and short) Therefore any price close in H1/H4 above or below these trap levels would suggest either a long or short bias for the day. The Asian range is 1.3461 – 1.3485 currently. One analyst says “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week”. Especially after the ECB tape bomb, there will be a food chain for SM to gobble up northward as many traders will have jumped in on momentum thus not near the highs pre-announcement.  SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to induce more shorts possibly to 1.3500 key level before reversing downwards to fade weak longs to possibly around 1.3447 before reversing upwards. 
EU long levels:  1.3461, 1.3447, 1.3419, 1.3400 EU short levels:  1.3500, 1.3540, 1.3578


GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (128pips) bull closing near the high on high vol<1days (BUT greater than the previous 68 days – Remember the perspective). The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Again, SM has used the news to accumulate inventory for the move north. The Asian range is 1.6175 – 1.6203 currently. Looking at the weekly chart, you will find that price has tested the supply zone around 1.6280 THREE times already. Since then, price has formed a trading range to absorb supply from between 1.5853 – 1.6259 Once price breaks and closes above 1.6259, the likely first target is 1.6500 hence I will look for shorts at the end of SM intraday cycles as short term trades and longs as longer term swing trades.
GU long levels:  1.6175, 1.6167, 1.6133, 1.6102  GU short levels: 1.6207 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 21 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (164pips) bear closing just off the low on high vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest:  Current Swing Fib50% @ 1.3498 Fib38.2% @ 1.3476 confluence with M15 ema200 @ 1.3480. Price tanked suddenly on the ECB tape bomb at the mention of negative interest rates consideration and has continued to push just a bit lower so far with the Asian range is 1.3413 – 1.3441 currently.  SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to induce more shorts possibly to 1.3400 key level (there will be stops there probably too tempting for SM to resist) before reversing upwards to remove weak longs and fade weak shorts to possibly around 1.3475 before reversing back down. 
EU long levels: 1.3413, 1.3400, 1.3362, 1.3344, 1.3300 U short levels:  1.3442, 1.3480, 1.3500


GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (91pips) upthrust bear closing off the low on high vol>68days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.6071 – 1.6107 currently. Levels of interest:  M15 ema200 @ 1.6109 Fib50% @ 1.6123 Fib61.8% @ 1.6135 SM will be likely to create buying pressure to induce longs before reversing down. Yesterday’s down move after making the new high probably caught most traders by surprise so the likelihood is an inducing of new longs before trapping them while at the same time fading the late shorts.  This is probably the mid-week reversal.
GU long levels:  1.6072, 1.6045, 1.6020, 1.6000  GU short levels: 1.6109, 1.6123, 1.6135, 1.6147, 1.6180

DAILY REVIEW 20 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (60pips) bull closing just off the high on below average vol>2days. The candle close and increasing volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Previous Week High 1.3546. TR1 (1.3460 – 1.3550) 61.8%Fib @ 1.3625 confluence with Previous breakout level 1.3650 Price has broken above the congestion breakout high of 1.3550 overnight as SM cleared stops above the 50%Fib (1.3558) and induced Fib traders short. The Asian range is 1.3532 – 1.3578 currently.  SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to fade the weak longs and test the 1.3533 level or a bit lower before reversing upwards. If price falls and H1/H4 closes below 1.3474, we can expect more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3532, 1.3520, 1.3508 EU short levels:  1.3578, 1.3600, 1.3625, 1.3650, 1.3700


GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (73pips) bull hammer closing off the high on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle and more downside. However, with the weekly price action in the background, the re-accumulation of orders by SM yesterday right down to 1.6058 and the current level suggests that the hammer may be a short trap. The Asian range is 1.6102 – 1.6142 currently. SM will be likely to build buying pressure to maybe spike 1.6147 to induce longs before reversing down to retest 1.6102 and reversing back again to fade weak shorts.  With price still in no-man’s land, a H1/H4 close below 1.6102 will likely mean more downside and the possibility of a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels:  1.6072, 1.6045, 1.6020, 1.6000  GU short levels: 1.6147, 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6240, 1.6259

DAILY REVIEW 19 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (67pips) bull small-body spinning top closing on below average vol>1day. The candle close suggests more downside but this looks to be more of a retracement. Levels of interest: Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. H4 supply level 1.3510 – 1.3562 The Asian range is 1.3498 – 1.3522 currently. Price is still sitting in the congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 After a snail-like rise in prices since 11 Nov 2013, the H1 and H4 bearish volume divergences finally kicked in and prices fell somewhat but the move does not look anything like a full blown reversal. A H1/H4 close below 1.3469 will likely see lower prices. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to test the 1.3500 level or a bit lower before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3497, 1.3474, 1.3455, 1.3433, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels:  1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600


GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (67pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling interest. The Asian range is 1.6097 – 1.6123 currently. Price action yesterday suggests that SM faded weak shorts and then reversed back to fade weak longs, effectively clearing the way to move up quickly when opportunity arises. Price continues to be in no-man’s land. A H1/H4 close below yesterday’s low will likely mean more downside before price reverses upwards. SM may continue the selling pressure to 1.6081 before reversing upwards.  
GU long levels:  1.6095, 1.6081, 1.6048, 1.6020  GU short levels: 1.6123, 1.6150, 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6210

DAILY REVIEW 18 Nov 2013
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (161pips) bull closing at high on average vol <1day. The candle close and volume suggest more upside. The Daily candle is a below average spread (74pips) bull closing just off the high on vol<3days. The candle close suggests suggests more upside although the volume does not indicate any buying interest. Levels of interest: congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. H4 ema200 @1.3525 and H4 supply level 1.3510 – 1.3562 The Asian range is 1.3474 – 1.3498 currently. Broker’s platforms once again show net an increase of short positions. In the absence of major news today, SM is likely to induce buying pressure and spike the 1.3500 key level to take stops and reverse back to fade weak longs before pushing up to test the 1.3524 and higher supply levels.  
EU long levels: 1.3455, 1.3433, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels:  1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600


GU: Weekly- the candle is a normal spread (280pips) bull closing off the high on vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (86pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests no demand. The Asian range is 1.6102 – 1.6126 Broker platforms also show an increase in short positions and this would suggest that the food chain for SM continues to be northbound. Price is in no-man’s land at the moment. SM may induce buying pressure to 1.6133 or higher before reversing to fade weak longs and reversing back up again.  
GU long levels:  1.6088, 1.6055  GU short levels: 1.6133, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6210

Hi folks, my apologies I'm unable to post today as I'll be out. Wish you all good trading.

DAILY REVIEW 14 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (105pips) bull closing just off the high on above average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. The Asian range is 1.3462 – 1.3497 SM used the news yesterday to effectively clear the entire 1.3389 – 1.3470 range by first removing the weak shorts and then the weak longs before making the real move upwards and stopping just short of the key 1.3500 level. SM has made a new high this morning but price is still trading below the high. After clearing such a wide range, SM will likely have taken out the traders trapped short and based on the broker’s platforms, net shorts are still more which means there is more upside. However, entering into the previous congestion breakout area will likely see some choppy price action as SM will likely clear the shorts in this level as well. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.3443 - 1.3435 and reverse to take out the weak shorts by spiking the key level 1.3500 retracing to take the breakout (long) trader’s stops  then reverse again upward. 
EU long levels: 1.3443, 1.3428, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels:  1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600


GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (189pips) bull closing at the high on average vol>2days. The close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Fib38.2% @ 1.5708 (daily confluence with ema200 @ 1.5713) The Asian range is 1.6026 – 1.6063 SM used yesterday’s UK news to push price up and continued the rise all the way through. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.6025 – 1.6000 before reversing back upwards. 
GU long levels:  1.6000, 1.5980, 1.5952  GU short levels: 1.6100, 1.6120, 1.6180, 1.6200

DAILY REVIEW 13 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (97pips) bull closing off the high on vol>1day. The candle close suggests some selling/supply coming in but the volume suggests increased buying interest. Levels of interest: Last Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also last Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500, daily Fib50% (retracement from current swing low) @ 1.3559 and last Friday’s low 1.3317 Price managed to break the 1.3441 level but failed to close above it. The Asian range is 1.3429 – 1.3450 Broker platforms show that there are increased short positions. The short orders still sitting above make it tempting for SM to push up as “retracement”. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts by spiking yesterday’s high or maybe around 1.3476 (confluence with H1 ema200) then reverse and induce more shorts with selling pressure before reversing upwards at Asia low or lower. 
EU long levels: 1.3421, 1.3400, 1.3365 EU short levels:  1.3455, 1.3476, 1.3500, 1.3510, 1.3559


GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (159pips) bear closing ¼ off the low on average vol>1day. The close and volume suggests volume suggest buying activity price is likely to retest yesterday’s low which is the gap close level. A failure to close below may see price reverse upwards. Levels of interest: Fib38.2% @ 1.5708 (daily confluence with ema200 @ 1.5713) The Asian range is 1.5884 – 1.5906 SM used yesterday’s UK news to push price down to close the gap after which SM faded weak shorts by reversing upwards for 92pips before continuing the downward move. SM is already likely to have stocked up enough orders for the ride down to test yesterday’s low and possibly lower. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade more weak shorts to around 1.5925 – 1.5950 before reversing back downwards. 
GU long levels:  1.5850, 1.5780, 1.5708, 1.5680  GU short levels: 1.5925, 1.5950, 1.6000, 1.6020, 1.6055

DAILY REVIEW 12 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (71pips) bull closing off the high on vol<9days. The candle close suggests buying but the volume suggests no real buying interest. Levels of interest: Last Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also last Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500 78.6%Fib @ 1.3259 Friday low 1.3317 and Weekly low 1.3294 Nothing has really changed since yesterday. Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3381 – 1.3413 Yesterday’s price action suggests that price is likely to push to the upside. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs to 1.3365 or lower before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3365, 1.3344, 1.3317, 1.3294, 1.3260 EU short levels:  1.3448, 1.3467, 1.3500, 1.3510


GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (56pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<4days. The close and volume suggest buying activity but with price not at any significant level, and with the background of the weekly candle, we can expect price to test the lows again. Levels of interest: Fib23.6% @ 1.5918 daily ema200 @ 1.5898 confluence with key level 1.5900 The Asian range is 1.5950 – 1.5991 SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs before reversing back upwards. We have a slew of UK news coming up so it will be best to let SM show their hand before taking any positions.
GU long levels:  1.5950, 1.5918, 1.5900  GU short levels: 1.6000, 1.6055, 1.6082, 1.6105

DAILY REVIEW 11 Nov 2013
EU: Weekly: the candle is a below-average spread (252pips) bear wide-body spinning top closing ¼ off the low on above-average vol>13weeks. The candle close and volume suggests buying into the candle as price may be poised to retest the gap level of 1.3292 again. The Daily candle is a large spread (120pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests buying but with price being in no man’s land, it is unlikely to just reverse and take off upwards. Levels of interest: Last Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also last Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500 78.6%Fib @ 1.3259 Friday low 1.3317 and Weekly low 1.3294 Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3344 – 1.3366 SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts before reversing to test Friday’s low and perhaps even the gap level of 1.3294
EU long levels: 1.3294, 1.3260 EU short levels:  1.3448, 1.3467, 1.3500, 1.3510


GU: Weekly- the candle is a below-average spread (202pips) bull closing ½ off the high on below-average vol <1week. The candle close and volume suggest selling and more downside. The Daily candle is a very large spread (149pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on very high vol<1day. The close and volume suggest buying activity as price moved towards the daily demand level 1.5920 Price opened with a small gap down that has been closed. The Asian range is 1.5998 – 1.6020 SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade the weak shorts before reversing downwards.
GU long levels:  1.5975, 1.5956  GU short levels:  1.6055, 1.6082, 1.6105

DAILY REVIEW 8 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a very large spread (234pips) bear pin bar closing 1/2 off the low on ultrahigh vol>70days. Levels of interest: Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500 78.6%Fib @ 1.3259 The Asian range is 1.3405 – 1.3424 The unlikely triple-act of the ECB rate cut, US GDP and Yen strength caused the EU to tank and later to retrace significantly. Although the daily candle close and volume suggests more upside, the fundamental news of the ECB would likely weigh on the EU. With NDP later today and optimistic numbers expected, EU is likely to head south. SM has already tested the 1.3441 Monday low and is likely to retest it again. Likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to retest the 1.3448 retracement high yesterday but there will be orders further up and SM may just go higher if they want more inventory for the ride down.
EU long levels: 1.3294, 1.3260 EU short levels:  1.3448, 1.3467, 1.3500, 1.3510


GU:  The Daily candle is a normal spread (105pips) bull hanging man closing just off the high on very high vol>59days, the close and volume suggest selling as price also failed to test yesterday’s high. The Asian range is 1.6076 – 1.6101 Yesterday’s price action saw a strong push downward in synch with the ECB rate decision and US GDP, however, it did not just retrace the entire move but even went back all the way to nearly test the previous day high. This price action either suggests that the way down has been cleared and the movement back up is an inventory resupply exercise or that the inventory resupply was at the lows and price is set to go higher. Given that price is close to the TR breakout level of 1.6120 the daily hanging man shown has credibility but being Friday NFP, one has to be mindful of possible wild swings like yesterday. From a price action perspective, 1.6105 looks like the level where long traders are trapped. SM is likely to create buying pressure to Asia high or higher before revesing. 
GU long levels:  1.6055  GU short levels:  1.6105, 1.6130, 1.6150, 1.6170, 1.6200

DAILY REVIEW 7 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (79pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on below average vol<1day. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3500 – 1.3523 (still within yesterday’s high). Looks very clear that SM has the low level shorts well and truly trapped and are poised to push further upward (see yesterday’s review for the reasoning). SM has already bounced off the 1.3500 key level and pushing upwards, this will likely end with them expanding the Asia high even upto yesterday’s high before reversing to create selling pressure to fade weak longs and induce more “low level” shorts, possibly to Asia low or slightly below to take out the weak longs that have already moved to breakeven before reversing upwards to continue the expected retracement. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3500, 1.3487.
EU long levels: 1.3500, 1.3487, 1.3477, 1.3451 EU short levels:  1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650


GU:  The Daily candle is a large spread (76pips) bull closing ½ off the high on below average vol<1day, the close suggests some slowing of buying as it broke and closed above yesterday’s high but there is daily bearish volume divergence as price tested the previous TR breakout level of 1.6120. The Asian range is 1.6064 – 1.6085 With price already making >200pips from the swing low, and daily bearish divergence in place, a short at yesterday’s high is a possibility but with both the Euro and UK interest rate decisions due out, it will be an opportunity for SM to push to the 1.6150 – 1.6170 level to grab stops before reversing. SM has come close to the daily breakout level of 1.6061 during Asia and moving upward to fade weak shorts, likely to around 1.6095 – 1.6100 where they may reverse to fade the weak longs and induce more shorts by creating selling pressure before the news. 
GU long levels:  1.6050, 1.6040, 1.6018, 1.6000  GU short levels:  1.6100, 1.6130, 1.6150, 1.6170, 1.6200

DAILY REVIEW 6 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (72pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on below average vol>1day. The candle close and the volume suggests buying interest. It is likely that the yesterday’s low 1.3448 will be untested. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3467 – 1.3520 (still within yesterday’s high). SM is likely to create selling pressure after just failing to break yesterday’s high to fade weak longs and induce “low level” shorts, possibly to Asia low before reversing upwards for the expected retracement. The low level shorts are likely those who missed the large down-move and believe that getting a good price now will get them back in the “downtrend” since they are not selling at the absolute low. However if SM has held price above 1.3448 and never tested Friday’s low of 1.3441, it is likely that they have already a significant value of orders locked at that level and will not be releasing the trapped traders therefore a continuation of that downtrend is improbable. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3477 (breakout of congestion level), although a retest of 1.3460 – 1.3451 is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3477, 1.3451, 1.3441 EU short levels:  1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650


GU:  The Daily candle is a large spread (114pips) bull closing off the high on below average vol>1day, the close and volume suggests more upside and it has already broken yesterday’s high. The Asian range is 1.6040 – 1.6094 The retracement upward has started, fuelled by yesterday’s good UK news. SM is likely to fade the weak longs and induce shorts by creating selling pressure as price tests the 1.6100 level before reversing back into the retracement northward. 
GU long levels:  1.6060, 1.6040, 1.6018, 1.6000  GU short levels:  1.6130, 1.6180, 1.6200

DAILY REVIEW 5 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (82pips) bull reverse upthrust closing off the high on below average vol<4days. The candle close suggests buying but the volume suggests no buying interest. Since the reverse upthrust occurred after stops were taken below 1.3461 which was a significant support level. If price is going to retrace from this level, I would not expect price to go lower than 1.3441 which is also the current week low. Unchanged Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3490 – 1.3521 SM is likely to fade weak longs but creating selling pressure before reversing upwards. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3477, 1.3451
EU long levels: 1.3477, 1.3451, 1.3441 EU short levels:  1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650


GU:  The Daily candle is a below average spread (75pips) bull closing off the high on vol<4days, the close suggests more upside but the volume suggests a lack of demand. Levels of interest: LOW 1.5902, 1.5925 week open, Daily 50%Fib @ 1.5842, Gap close @ 1.5872 The Asian range is 1.5953 – 1.5981 The likely SM move seeing as the range is still relatively tight may well be to drop from Asia high to induce shorts, test the current lows and reverse for the retracement long and take out weak shorts. Broker platforms are still net short which makes the likely food chain for SM to the upside. 
GU long levels:  1.5940, 1.5925, 1.5902, 1.5860, 1.5835  GU short levels:  1.6005, 1.6025, 1.6075, 1.6100

DAILY REVIEW 4 Nov 2013
EU: Weekly: The candle is a large spread (338pips) bear closing just off the low on vol>5weeks, the close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (109pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol<1day and the candle close and volume also suggests more downside. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3441 – 1.3501 SM has actually broken the 1.3461 level and taken stops about 20pips lower but failed to close below it, instead closing with a H1/H4 bullish volume divergence. As the 1.3461 is a significant level of support, this may well be a possible retracement upward before any further downward movement. It is also likely that after a straight drop of >300pips, it will be time for SM to remove the weaker shorts even if they want to push further south. SM has already induced shorts past Friday’s low and the likely move today will be to create selling pressure from Asia high to induce shorts again before reversing at the low to retrace and fade the weak shorts. 
EU long levels: 1.3441 EU short levels:  1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650


GU:  Weekly: the candle is a normal spread (300pips) bear closing just off the low on below average vol >3weeks. The close suggests more downside but the volume seems to indicate reducing selling intent. The Daily candle is a large spread (138pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<3days, the close suggests more downside but the volume suggests a lack of supply. Technicals: Daily 50%Fib @ 1.5842, Gap close @ 1.5872 The Asian range is 1.5902 – 1.5939 Price has also broken below Friday’s low but failed to close below. H4 also closed with bullish volume divergence earlier. While price may actually test the current low and retrace upwards, there is also the possibility of one more downward push to take the long gap traders’ stops before that since it is well within reach. Ultimately this business is about where SM can get their hands on orders to fulfill their targets. The likely SM move seeing as the range is still relatively tight may well be to drop from Asia high to induce shorts, test the current low or further to close the gap and reverse for the retracement long and take out weak shorts.  
GU long levels:  1.5860, 1.5835  GU short levels:  1.6005, 1.6025, 1.6075, 1.6100

DAILY REVIEW 1 Nov 2013
EU: Monthly: the candle closed as a small spread (359pips) bull upthrust with a long wick to the top on below average vol >1month with bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a large spread (164pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol>30days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.3539 – 1.3588 Technicals: Daily ema50 @ 1.3525 confluence with Daily Fib 38.2% @ 1.3553, Daily 50% Fib @1.3467 confluence with swing low 1.3461 on 25 Sep 2013. If 1.3461 is broken with a H1/H4 close below, the next demand level is the 1.3351 which is also the gap open level on 16 Sep 2013. Before this level, we have the Oct low of 1.3472 which may also be a manipulation level for SM. With Greece back on the agenda and the FED insisting that tapering is not off the table, EU sold off in volume confirming the pent up weekly and daily bearish volume divergences that were seen. Now we must know that SM does not drive huge volume, SM will step in as prices reach a clear level of demand/support. Although we have very high daily climatic volume, we have not seen stopping volume yet and today being a Friday, we may just see price test and find the reversal level or the next trading range (TR) before the next move, whether a continuation lower or a retest upward. Today will likely see a formation of the new TR before the next move. As EU has moved substantially, it will also be natural for SM to restock for moves in either direction. Being Friday and with no NFP today, I don’t expect the same kind of move as yesterday but what is probable will be for price to test the 1.3500 key level which is well within reach.  With the negative sentiment over Europe, SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to induce even more shorts to Asia low or lower before reversing upwards to leave these folks trapped over the weekend. 
EU long levels: 1.3539, 1.3525, 1.3500, 1.3472, 1.3461 EU short levels:  1.3590, 1.3620, 1.3650


GU:  Monthly: the candle is small spread (367pips) bear closing off the low on below average vol >1month. The close is just above the monthly ema50 1.6017 and the candle close and volume suggests no selling interest and perhaps even hints at a possible retest of the highs. The Daily candle is a small spread (63pips) bull near-doji closing on very high vol>9days.The candle close and volume suggests buying and possible stalling for a move back up. Technicals: Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.5941 confluence with Daily ema50 @ 1.5940 The Asian range is 1.6015 – 1.6045, pretty much the same as yesterday so we know that this is a range for either accumulation or redistribution. Yesterday’s price action saw SM pick up stops below the 1.6000 key level down to 1.5997 and although the daily close and volume suggests a slowing of the selling, price is nowhere near a significant demand level and is likely to push further downward to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure in tandem with EU before reversing to trap the low level shorts over the weekend. 
GU long levels:  1.6000, 1.5941, 1.5920, 1.5900  GU short levels:  1.6075, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380