EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (105pips) bull closing just off the high on above average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. The Asian range is 1.3462 – 1.3497 SM used the news yesterday to effectively clear the entire 1.3389 – 1.3470 range by first removing the weak shorts and then the weak longs before making the real move upwards and stopping just short of the key 1.3500 level. SM has made a new high this morning but price is still trading below the high. After clearing such a wide range, SM will likely have taken out the traders trapped short and based on the broker’s platforms, net shorts are still more which means there is more upside. However, entering into the previous congestion breakout area will likely see some choppy price action as SM will likely clear the shorts in this level as well. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.3443 - 1.3435 and reverse to take out the weak shorts by spiking the key level 1.3500 retracing to take the breakout (long) trader’s stops then reverse again upward.
EU long levels: 1.3443, 1.3428, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels: 1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (189pips) bull closing at the high on average vol>2days. The close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Fib38.2% @ 1.5708 (daily confluence with ema200 @ 1.5713) The Asian range is 1.6026 – 1.6063 SM used yesterday’s UK news to push price up and continued the rise all the way through. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.6025 – 1.6000 before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6000, 1.5980, 1.5952 GU short levels: 1.6100, 1.6120, 1.6180, 1.6200
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