DAILY REVIEW 29 August 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (54pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3152 Daily/Weekly: 1.3130, 1.3105, 1.3100 Supply: short-term: 1.3267, 1.3288, 1.3300, 1.3330 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Another lacklustre day and week so far as SM looks to be starting some sort of re-accumulation activity. In the background, although the Gaza crisis appears to have abated somewhat, the Ukraine conflict has re-escalated. These events only serve to keep the fear factor strong and hence maintain the USD strength as well. SM is likely to test the 1.3152 level and reversing upwards to today's Asia high or higher (possibly trapping and removing the breakout short traders) before resuming the downward move. Today is the last trading day of the month so SM may whipsaw prices in order to book profits. 

EU long levels: 1.3152, 1.3130, 1.3105, 1.3100  
EU short levels: 1.3200, 1.3267, 1.3288, 1.3300 

GU Analysis

GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (46pips) bull "upthrust" closing on very high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6655, 1.6680 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463 SM is likely to test yesterday's high1.6612 or higher before reversing to continue the downward movement to retest the current low at 1.6534.

GU long levels: 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463 
GU short levels: 1.6655, 1.6680

Posted at 04.03 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 26 August 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Weekly: the candle is a above-average spread (178pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a small spread (35pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.3130, 1.3105, 1.3100 Supply: short-term: 1.3267, 1.3288, 1.3300, 1.3330 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. After the gap open yesterday, prices have failed to close and struggled to break 1.3220, reaching only 1.3218 The gap close level is 1.3238 Prices have closed below the previous gap close level of 1.3294 and have entered the weekly demand levels. SM is likely to fade weak shorts before continuing the downward move. Look at the charts above to view the levels for possible trades. 

EU long levels: 1.3130, 1.3105, 1.3100  
EU short levels: 1.3267, 1.3288, 1.3300 

GU Analysis

GU: Weekly- the candle is a above-average (176pips) bear closing on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but with generally less selling pressure as the volume is also generally decreased over the last 5 weeks. The Daily candle is a below average spread (63pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<4days with bullish daily volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests buying commencement. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6655, 1.6680 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463 Price opened with a small gap down that was easily closed and SM is likely to continue fading weak shorts toward the 1.6654 breakout level or a bit higher before reversing back down. Look at the charts above to view the levels for possible trades.

GU long levels: 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463 
GU short levels: 1.6655, 1.6680

Posted at 02.05 am EST, updated 02.41 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 21 August 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (69pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.3205 Supply: short-term: 1.3300, 1.3330, 1.3355, 1.3382 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. The FOMC minutes stoked by the USD hawks fueled USD strength across the board. The market is already pricing in the expected rate hikes even before they have been decided, let alone implemented. This is also while ignoring some poor US data. This makes for a very concerted SM push to significant levels from which any kind of poor data will cause a mini-reversal if not a full blown one. With key German data expected soon, SM would probably use good German news to fade weak shorts before continuing the downward move with the US data that follows later. Look at the charts above to view the levels for possible trades. 

EU long levels: 1.3205  
EU short levels: 1.3300, 1.3330, 1.3355, 1.3382 

GU Analysis:

GU: The Daily candle is a very small spread (89pips) bear closing at the low on high vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6600,1.6650, 1.6705, 1.6730 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6687, 1.6654, 1.6575, 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463 Someone skyped me yesterday asking me about chasing long the GU and this was my response, "sell order stacks in GU may require too much effort, better to dive and reload... 5.35am EST) Whew, good thing he heeded otherwise FOMC would have wiped him. Anyway, we do have UK data later today and SM may use it to test the 1.6548 pivot from which price can possibly reverse and reaccumulate. Note also that GU has practically moved downward with barely a pause from it's current high on 15/7/2014. Look at the charts above to view the levels for possible trades. 

GU long levels: 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463 
GU short levels: 1.6600,1.6650, 1.6705, 1.6730

Posted at 01.45 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 18 August 2014

Wish everyone good trading this week.
EU Analysis:

EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (79pips) bear psuedo reverse upthrust on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggest reduced selling pressure. The Daily candle is a below average spread (52pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside before reversing back down. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3292, 1.3250, 1.3205 Supply: short-term: 1.3382, 1.3395, 1.3410, 1.3425, 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Generally, nothing has changed the combination of poor EUR news from Germany and France. Prices opened just marginally gapped down by 7pips but having a upward short term bias. SM is likely to create buying pressure to to around the 1.3445 or higher as SM remove weak shorts from the market before reversing back down to test the 1.3300 key level or lower. 

EU long levels: 1.3330, 1.3292, 1.3250, 1.3205  
EU short levels: 1.3395, 1.3410, 1.3425, 1.3445, 1.3465, 1.3482

GU Analysis:

GU: The weekly candle is an above average spread (186pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but with reduced selling pressure. The Daily candle is a very small spread (24pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6735, 1.6755, 1.6770, 1.6805, 1.6825, 1.6850 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6687, 1.6654, 1.6575, 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463  Last week I wrote, "we can expect SM to remove some weak shorts before resuming the move downward if they break and fade weak breakout shorts which will give a retracement trade long to around the 1.6735 level".... Well, BOE's George Carney gave a blockbuster interview published over the weekend essentially saying that the UK recovery is well on track and that there is no need for real wages to rise before increasing interest rates thereby causing the cable to Gap up 43pips on today's open.  SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to the breakout level of 1.6755 or higher before reversing for the continuation downward to test the gap close level 1.6687 or lower. See the charts posted for possible levels. As always, the demand levels are possible reversal levels but are yet to be confirmed until tested. However, also note that price had pushed very close but has not broken the 1.66548 pivot yet.

GU long levels: 1.66548, 1.6575, 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463 
GU short levels: 1.6735, 1.6755, 1.6803, 1.6825

Posted at 04.10 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 15 August 2014

Have been super busy this week folks so I'll get everyone up to speed.
EU Analysis:

EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (59pips) doji closing on average vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3292, 1.3250, 1.3205 Supply: short-term: 1.3382, 1.3395, 1.3410, 1.3425, 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. The combination of poor EUR news from Germany and France coupled with poor US news made for a whipsaw type day yesterday with price kissing the 1.3407, just 3 pips shy of our expected level for a turn. Nothing has changed yet as price remains within yesterday's prices. SM is likely to create buying pressure to to around the 1.3382 before reversing back down to test the 1.3300 key level or lower. Note that being the weekend, prices may whipsaw to grab stops at week-high before reversing as well. 

EU long levels: 1.3330, 1.3292, 1.3250, 1.3205  
EU short levels: 1.3382, 1.3395, 1.3410, 1.3425, 1.3440

GU Analysis:

GU: The Daily candle is a very small spread (39pips) bear pseudo upthrust closing on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6735, 1.6755, 1.6803, 1.6825 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6575, 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463  Price has pushed very close but has not broken the 1.66548 pivot yet. Although the order stacks now will be lower toward the next weekly pivot or lower so we can expect SM to remove some weak shorts before resuming the move downward if they break and fade weak breakout shorts which will give a retracement trade long to around the 1.6735 level or so to close out the week since there is no blockbuster-type news event due. See the charts posted for possible levels. As always, the demand levels are possible reversal levels but are yet to be confirmed until tested.

GU long levels: 1.66548, 1.6575, 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463 
GU short levels: 1.6735, 1.6755, 1.6803, 1.6825

Posted at 04.10 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 14 August 2014

Have been super busy this week folks so I'll get everyone up to speed.
EU Analysis:

EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (72pips) bear narrow body "near spinning top" closing on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3292, 1.3250, 1.3205 Supply: short-term: 1.3382, 1.3395, 1.3410, 1.3425, 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Even with the poor US data yesterday, prices retraced practically all the gains. SM is likely to create buying pressure to to around the 1.3382 or higher before reversing back down to test the 1.3300 key levelor lower.

EU long levels: 1.3330, 1.3292, 1.3250, 1.3205  
EU short levels: 1.3382, 1.3395, 1.3410, 1.3425, 1.3440

GU Analysis:

GU: The Daily candle is a very large spread (158pips) bear closing at low on very high vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6735, 1.6755, 1.6803, 1.6825 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6575, 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463  The UK data released was mixed but Carney's speech gave SM the fuel to spike up to take stops and then push down as the possibility of interest rates rise became indeterminable and also expected to have a slow rate of rise, the double whammy caused a sell-off in the Cable and since yesterday has broken the prior weekly pivot. The closest order stacks now will be lower toward the next weekly pivot or lower so we can expect SM to keep pushing downwards. Any possibility of following the downward move will only materialize if SM fades weak breakout shorts, see the charts posted for possible levels. The demand levels are possible reversal levels but are yet to be confirmed until tested.

GU long levels: 1.6575, 1.6546, 1.6528, 1.6480, 1.6463 
GU short levels: 1.6735, 1.6755, 1.6803, 1.6825

Posted at 03.07 am EST, updated 04.06 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 8 August 2014

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (56pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3294 Supply: short-term: 1.3395, 1.3420, 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3573, 1.3600, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices actually tested the 1.3400 level and SM is likely to continue the buying pressure to fade weak shorts to around the 1.3410 (breakout level) or higher to the 1.3427 before reversing back down to test the 1.3332 low or lower.

EU long levels: 1.3332, 1.3294  
EU short levels: 1.3410, 1.3427, 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3600, 1.3646, 1.3670, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (66pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure and more downward movement soon. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6800 (confluence Fib 78.6%) Daily- 1.6780, 1.6741 (confluence Fib 88.6%), 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 The UK data released gave SM the fuel to tak stops below the 1.6800 key level. SM is likely to fade weak shorts back to the 1.6850 level or higher before reversing to continue the downward move. A close below the 1.6800 key level will likely see a test of the 1.6750 level (confluence with the Fib 88.6%)  

GU long levels: 1.6780, 1.6741, 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 
GU short levels: 1.6850, 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145, 1.7170, 1.7192, 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.8000

Posted at 06.50 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 7 August 2014

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (54pips) bull reverse upthrust on high vol>3day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3294 Supply: short-term: 1.3395, 1.3420, 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3573, 1.3600, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices dived to 1.3332, just 2 pips short of a daily demand level at 1.3330 but never reached the expected 1.3300 key level. SM is likely to continue the buying pressure to fade weak shorts to around the 1.3410 (breakout level) or higher to the 1.3427 before reversing back down to test the 1.3332 low or lower.

EU long levels: 1.3332, 1.3294  
EU short levels: 1.3410, 1.3427, 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3600, 1.3646, 1.3670, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (66pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure and more downward movement soon. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6800 (confluence Fib 78.6%) Daily- 1.6780, 1.6741 (confluence Fib 88.6%), 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 SM has already moved prices downward during Asia and is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the 1.6913 (Monday low) or the 1.6800 key level before reversing back upwards. A close below the 1.6800 key level will likely see a test of the 1.6750 level (confluence with the Fib 88.6%)  

GU long levels: 1.6813, 1.6800, 1.6780, 1.6741, 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 
GU short levels: 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145, 1.7170, 1.7192, 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.8000

Posted at 02.03 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 6 August 2014

EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (66pips) bear closing off the low on high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but also that there is some buying commencement. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3294 Supply: short-term: 1.3395, 1.3420, 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3573, 1.3600, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. At time of writing, the German Factory Orders data had missed by a mile and prices had dived past yesterday's low only to trap weak shorts and now appears to be headed back up. SM is likely to continue the buying selling to test last week's low at 1.3366 or lower.

EU long levels: 1.3294  
EU short levels: 1.3395, 1.3420, 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3600, 1.3646, 1.3670, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (43pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure and a likely downward movement soon. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6800 (confluence Fib 78.6%) Daily- 1.6780, 1.6741 (confluence Fib 88.6%), 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 With the Manufacturing data out soon, SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to Asia high (1.6886 or higher to the 1.6895 level or higher to 1.6922 level before reversing back downwards.  

GU long levels: 1.6800, 1.6780, 1.6741, 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 
GU short levels: 1.6895, 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145, 1.7170, 1.7192, 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.8000

Posted at 04.14 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 5 August 2014

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (23pips) bear closing about 1/2 off the low on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.3366 Daily/Weekly: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3294 Supply: short-term: 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3573, 1.3600, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices hardly moved during Asia and are now dropping in London. SM is likely to continue selling pressure to test last week's low at 1.3366 or lower.

EU long levels: 1.3366, 1.3294  
EU short levels: 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3600, 1.3646, 1.3670, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (51pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<4days. The candle close suggests more upside and volume suggests more no buying pressure. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6800 (confluence Fib 78.6%) Daily- 1.6780, 1.6741 (confluence Fib 88.6%), 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to the 1.6895 level or higher to 1.6922 level before reversing back downwards.  

GU long levels: 1.6800, 1.6780, 1.6741, 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 
GU short levels: 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145, 1.7170, 1.7192, 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.8000

Posted at 05.13 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 4 August 2014

EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (78pips) near doji on low vol>5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a below average spread (66pips) bull large body spinning top closing off the high on very high vol>40days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.3366 Daily/Weekly: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3294 Supply: short-term: 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3573, 1.3600, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. The poor NFP data last Friday gave SM the ideal fuel to fade weak shorts. SM is likely to continue to fade weak shorts to last Friday's high (1.3440 level) or higher to 1.3475 before reversing to test last week's low at 1.3366 or lower.

EU long levels: 1.3366, 1.3294  
EU short levels: 1.3440, 1.3485, 1.3500, 1.3547, 1.3600, 1.3646, 1.3670, 1.3730, 1.3800, 1.3900

GU: Weekly- the candle is an above average spread (198pips) bear closing off the low on average vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol>88days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply short-term- 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.7178 (current pivot high), 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.800 Demand:  short-term-  1.6800 (confluence Fib 78.6%) Daily- 1.6780, 1.6741 (confluence Fib 88.6%), 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 The weak manufacturing PMI coupled with the poor NFP data drove prices to stop just one pip shy of the 1.6800 key level before reversing back long to fade weak shorts. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to the 1.6800 key level or lower before reversing back upwards.  

GU long levels: 1.6800, 1.6780, 1.6741, 1.6720, 1.6700, 1.6692 
GU short levels: 1.6895, 1.6922, 1.6950, 1.6980, 1.7016, 1.7042, 1.7120, 1.7145, 1.7170, 1.7192, 1.7365, 1.7910, 1.8000

Posted at 02.16 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 1 August 2014

Today is Non-Farm Payroll, I thought I will do something different today and open up my webinar to those who wish to listen to a live commentary as and after the data is released. 


You can register for VSAnalytiks™ 20140801 NFP on Aug 1, 2014 8:00 AM EDT at: 
REGISTER HERE

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.


Posted at 07.23 am EST