DAILY REVIEW 29 December 2015


EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. November's candle suggests more downside but the lack of volume suggests retracement possibilities before that happens. Last week's candle confirms this. Furthermore, there are no significant order stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (492pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<13 months. The candle close suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (138pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<50weeks. The candle close suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a small spread (37pips) bull "pseudo-upthrust" closing on low vol>1day. The candle close suggests more upside.  

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Christmas came almost immediately after Mario Draghi's magic and Janet Yellen finally raising rates. Price has held despite the rate hike as we head into 2016.  

The Oanda order book shows significant net trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.0800-1.0789, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0677-1.0664

Potential supply stacks: N.A.

Potential long (trapped) stops:  N.A. 
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0976-1.0991, 1.1066-1.1076, 1.1151-1.1160 

With hardly any movement yesterday. It would not be too different from watching grass grow. There is some US data release later. SM is likely to continue upward pressure to around the 1.1059 level or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.0800-1.0795, 1.0762-1.0740, 1.0700  

EU short levels: 1.1060, 1.1105, 1.1208


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (503pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (139pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<103weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.
DAY- The candle is a small spread (60pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>1da. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped long positions. 

Potential demand stacks: nothing significant
Potential supply stacks: 1.5090-1.5103, 1.5190-1.5200

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4865-1.4855

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4920-1.4963

The volumes remain very thinly spread. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around the 1.4970 level or higher before reversing to continue the downward move. 

GU long levels:  no significant levels

GU short levels: 1.4970, 1.5000, 1.5050, 1.5075, 1.5100, 1.5220, 1.5290-1.5315

Posted at 3.37 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 28 December 2015

Hi folks,

We're heading toward the end of the year this week and traders worth their salt are still on vacation. We're also not expecting any earth-shaking policy announcements from either Draghi and his merry men or the FED, they'll probably be enjoying themselves. Expect volumes to be thin as what's left of participants will be subject to possible meaningless moves that may be quite stressful for folk trying to chase price and/or signals.

Cheers
Trek Trader

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. November's candle suggests more downside but the lack of volume suggests retracement possibilities before that happens. Last week's candle confirms this. Furthermore, there are no significant order stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (492pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<13 months. The candle close suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (138pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<50weeks. The candle close suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (64pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<257days. The candle close suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Christmas came almost immediately after Mario Draghi's magic and Janet Yellen finally raising rates. Price has held despite the rate hike as we head into 2016.  

The Oanda order book still shows significant net trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.0800-1.0789, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0677-1.0664

Potential supply stacks: N.A.

Potential long (trapped) stops:  N.A. 
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0980-1.0990, 1.1067-1.1080, 1.1173-1.1184 

Without significant news and/or data releases, the weak shorts are at risk. SM is likely to continue upward pressure to around the 1.1059 level or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.0800-1.0795, 1.0762-1.0740, 1.0700  

EU short levels: 1.1060, 1.1105, 1.1208


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (503pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (139pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<103weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (81pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<411days. The candle close suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped long positions. 

Potential demand stacks: nothing significant
Potential supply stacks: 1.5090-1.5103, 1.5190-1.5200

Potential long (trapped) stops:  N.A.

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4957-1.4968

The volumes are very thinly spread. Price opened slightly gapped down with the gap already closed. The fresh weak shorts are now in play and SM is likely to fade to take their stops to around the 1.4970 level or higher before reversing to continue the downward move. 

GU long levels:  no significant levels

GU short levels: 1.4970, 1.5000, 1.5050, 1.5075, 1.5100, 1.5220, 1.5290-1.5315

Posted at 2.00 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 23 December 2015

Hi folks,
The network connectivity seems to have been solved with new settings, Yay! Anyway, I will not be posting until next week. I wish everyone a Blessed and Merry Christmas!

Cheers
Trek Trader

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. November's candle suggests more downside but the lack of volume suggests retracement possibilities before that happens. Last week's candle confirms this. Furthermore, there are no significant order stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (492pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<13 months. The candle close suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a average spread (257pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol>15weeks. The candle close suggests more downside but the volume suggests buying. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (81pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol<15days. The candle close suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: At the last ECB press conference, Mario Draghi's policies levitated the EU about 470 pips that not even a decent NFP could reverse. Now with the FED rate rise in place, we still find USD weakness.

The Oanda order book shows significant net trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.0807-1.0789, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0677-1.0664

Potential supply stacks: 1.1243-1.1253

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0910-1.0900, 1.0794-1.0763, 1.0743-1.0732 
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0937-1.0960, 1.1063-1.1075, 1.1175-1.1183 

As expected, the weak shorts yesterday were faded to a new high before price retraced. Short positions remain under threat as they remain the bulk of trapped folks. With more US data out later, SM is likely to retest yesterday's high 1.0983 level or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.0900-1.0890, 1.0800-1.0795, 1.0762-1.0740, 1.0700  

EU short levels: 1.0980, 1.1040-1.1055, 1.1091-1.1100


GU Analysis:

I won't bother with this pair today. Suffice to say that we should only be looking to sell at the specific levels or higher.