DAILY REVIEW 31 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (89pips) bear narrow-body spinning top on high vol<1days. The candle close and volume suggests buying interest and a possible slowing of the selling momentum. The Asian range is 1.3688 – 1.3738 Yesterday I wrote “Levels of interest for a possible short before FOMC would be 1.3775 (price has rotated around this level several times) “ and FOMC price action yesterday saw SM spike up to grab stops to 1.3783 before reversing sharply downwards. SM is likely to create selling pressure from around the Asia high to induce even more shorts before fading these traders by reversing upward to confirm the buying that was started yesterday. A failure to close below 1.3650 will likely see price re-accumulate (or chop around) in a range for a few days before pushing back up to test supply levels again.
EU long levels: 1.3670, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3765, 1.3783, 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900


GU:  The Daily candle is a below-average spread (80pips) bear narrow-body spinning top closing on high vol<1days.The candle close and volume suggests buying and possible stalling for a move back up. The Asian range is 1.6004 – 1.6042. Yesterday’s price action saw SM pick up stops below the 1.6000 key level down to 1.5997 and although the daily close and volume suggests a slowing of the selling, price is nowhere near a significant demand level and is likely to push further downward to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 Bearing in mind that the short orders sitting above are still very much for the taking by SM, news permitting.  SM is likely to create buying pressure before reversing downward to test the daily demand levels. 
GU long levels:  1.6000, 1.5920, 1.5900  GU short levels:  1.6065, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 30 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (77pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.3732 – 1.749 and not done yet. Price action yesterday saw SM spike up to grab stops above 1.3800 on poor US news and it looks like the correction has begun as price has closed below the daily congestion level low of 1.3741 With the FOMC coming up later, we can expect SM to do their thing again whipping price around as there are no clear levels to long and SM is not actually going to hand us a nice beautiful short level unless they first convince us that it is going up. Based on the current structure, the levels of interest for a potential long would be 1.3710 (previous month high), 1.3700 key level, Daily demand level 1.3650 – 1.3675 confluence with daily Fib23.6% @ 1.3660 Levels of interest for a possible short before FOMC would be 1.3775 (price has rotated around this level several times) and 1.3800 key level as well as the higher supply levels. FOMC has the impact to change sentiment and with the perspective of the current monthly chart showing a slightly increased buying activity (current and may change based on FOMC), it would not surprise me if prices push back all the way up before the correction. SM is likely to create selling pressure from around the Asia high to induce even more shorts before fading these traders by reversing upward into a stall before the FOMC. If the lower long levels are reached, the trades are likely retracement-type trades but if the drop is shallow, we may expect a test of the higher supply levels. This is not impossible given the recent US government shutdown possibly being the excuse to delay the reeling in of QE, especially if they mention dates that are further than anticipated.
EU long levels: 1.3732, 1.3710, 1.3700, 1.3670, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900


GU:  The Daily candle is a large spread (122pips) bear closing near the low on high vol>7days.The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Price has a daily close below the daily Fib23.6% and looks set to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 Previously, price went below to 1.5920 and spiked below as well so the level is not as clear as it could be. The Asian range is 1.6023 – 1.6056. Enough said about the FOMC, it will affect GU in much the same way. There are still significant orders piled above so it may tempt SM to smash and grab some if the news permits.  SM has created some kind of a “support” level and created buying pressure to induce more shorts but this is likely to be a reload strategy prior to the FOMC news. 
GU long levels:  1.6000, 1.5920, 1.5900  GU short levels:  1.6065, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 29 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (43pips) bear spinning top on low vol<4days. The candle close suggests that there may be a bit more downside but the volume suggests no selling pressure. The Asian range is 1.3768 – 1.793 and remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 Yesterday saw SM absorb shorts to slightly above the 1.3800 key level. Broker platforms continue to show high levels of open short positions, the closest orders will all be north-bound and on the way to the supply at 1.3860 SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce even more shorts before reversing upward possibly to test yesterday’s high and also maybe push higher to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 will likely see more downside. 
EU long levels: 1.3768, 1.3743 EU short levels: 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900


GU:  The Daily candle is a normal spread (84pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<4days.The candle close and volume suggests that there no selling interest. The Asian range is 1.6063 – 1.6143. SM has been inducing shorts the whole day. Probable SM move will be to reverse and create buying pressure to fade the weak short about the 1.6180 and then chop around before news determines their next move. The likely move is still upwards owing to the stacks of orders piled on from above.  
GU long levels:  1.6085, 1.6010, 1.6000  GU short levels:  1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 28 Oct 2013
EU: Weekly: the candle is a below-average spread (181pips) bull wide-body spinning top closing off the highs on low vol<3days with bearish volume divergence visible. The Daily candle is a below-average spread (58pips) doji with equal up/down wicks on vol<1days with continued bearish volume divergence. 
Price opened with a small gap up and the Asian range is 1.3799 – 1.3817 Nothing has changed from last week as price remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 The month high 1.3870 (Nov 2011) is significant. Broker platforms continue to show open short positions at an extreme. We also have a weekly and daily bearish volume divergence in place now so we can expect to see indicative “topping” price action soon. SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce even more shorts before reversing upward possibly to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 will likely see more downside. 
EU long levels: 1.3778, 1.3763, 1.3743 EU short levels: 1.3865, 1.3900


GU: Weekly: the candle is a small spread (141pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<1week.  The Daily candle is a normal spread (96pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<1day.The candle close and volume suggests that there no selling interest. Market opened with a small gap up and has cince closed. The Asian range is 1.6166 – 1.6188. Broker platforms also reveal that open short positions have increased. As the food chain continues to be to the north, potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) Probable SM move will be to create buying pressure to about the 1.62000 key level and then reverse back downward to accumulate orders for the long before reversing to test the highs. 
GU long levels:  1.6166, 1.6150, 1.6137  GU short levels:  1.6200, 1.6220 (London possibly), 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 25 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bull spinning top closing off the high on increased vol>4days with continued bearish volume divergence and the Asian range is 1.3784 – 1.3831 at the moment, price has broken but failed to close above yesterday’s high. Yesterday’s close and volume suggests possible topping out is coming. Price remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 A significant level is the month high 1.3870 (Nov 2011). TR is 1.3763 – 1.3831 A continued daily bearish volume divergence is in place and may give a possible reversal at or near current levels. Today is Friday so we can expect that SM will want to reverse direction of the past week to book profits so they will likely want to keep the bulls piling in. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure especially after throwing 2 pins to the high on H1 to induce shorts, keep the upward move, maybe make one last push to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 may see more downside. 
EU long levels: 1.3763, 1.3743, 1.3726  EU short levels: 1.3865, 1.3900


GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (85pips) bull spinning top closing about ¼ off the high on increased vol>4days.The candle close and volume suggests that there was buying into the candle so further upside is possible. The Asian range is 1.6178 – 1.6245. SM has been busy taking out the weak short from the herd as they kept piling in short positions. Price may test and break the high, if so, potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) Probable SM move will be to create selling pressure to re-induce shorts and then reverse to test the highs.
GU long levels: 1.6180, 1.6160, 1.6137   GU short levels:  1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 24 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (52pips) bear almost-dragonfly doji closing off the low on vol>3days with continued bearish volume divergence. The close and volume suggests possible topping out. Price remains in the same level as yesterday i.e. daily congestion level approximately 1.3766 – 1.3866 Of significance is month high 1.3870 (Nov 2011) The Asian range is 1.3773 – 1.3787 at the moment. TR is 1.3726 – 1.3792 As anticipated, SM faded a lot of weak longs yesterday and after that reversed and retested the high and made a new high. SM is likely to be eyeing orders above the 1.3800 key level to load inventory before reversing downward. A continued daily bearish volume divergence is in place and may give a possible reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3726 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3773, 1.3743, 1.3726 (pre-London, London) EU short levels: 1.3792, 1.3800, 1.3860


GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (137pips) bear closing about ¼ off the low on vol>3days.The candle close and volume suggests that there was buying into the candle so further upside to test the week high and possibly even higher prices may still be possible. The Asian range is 1.6161 – 1.6201 (and still going). SM took out many weak longs in one move yesterday wiping out all the NFP long traders who did not take profits and the likely SM move today is to fade weak shorts through London retest the day high at least. The possible levels where price might pause and reverse could be 1.6226 (breakout), 1.6247 (Tue high), 1.6255 (yesterday’s high).  Broker platforms report that net-short positions in this pair have increased which means the food chain for SM is upward.  If price breaks the high, potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) 
GU long levels:  1.6161, 1.6118  GU short levels:  1.6226, 1.6247, 1.6255, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 23 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (130pips) bull closing just off the high on vol>2days. The close and volume suggests more upside and there is now daiy bearish volume divergence. Price is now in the previous daily congestion level approximately 1.3766 – 1.3866 and next daily supply level at 1.4200 – 1.4250 With the daily bearish divergence in place, the probability is for price to compress in the congestion area and probably correct downwards before further attempts upwards. The Asian range is 1.3768 – 1.3792 at the moment. TR is 1.3726 – 1.3792 SM killed off a lot of weak shorts yesterday and these blokes are not about to jump back in a hurry. The anticipated SM move will be to fade weak longs before reversing to test the high. As a daily bearish divergence is in place, this may also be a possible reversal level as stated yesterday. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3766 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3743, 1.3726 (pre-London, London) EU short levels: 1.3792, 1.3800, 1.3860


GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (132pips) bull closing just off the high on vol>2days.The candle close and volume suggests further upside and there is also daily bearish volume divergence. The immediate potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) and the next daily supply level is at 1.6400 – 1.6455 
The Asian range is 1.6226 – 1.6255 TR 1.6177 – 1.6255 TRL 1.6177 – 1.6210 TRU 1.6210 – 1.6255 SM took out many weak shorts in one move yesterday and the likely move is to fade weak longs through London before reversing and moving up to retest the day high at least. The only two levels that will be of interest to go long will be the 1.6210 and 1.6177 level. A H1 close below the TRL low of 1.6177 may lead to a change of bias. 
GU long levels:  1.6202, 1.6077 (pre-London/London),  GU short levels:  1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 22 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (37pips) bear hammer closing on high vol<34ays. The daily candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. The Asian range is 1.3661 – 1.3680 TR is unchanged at 1.3650 – 1.3703 with TRL 1.3650 – 1.3677 and TRU 1.3677 – 1.3703 Trader platform’s open positions show that the trading crowd has increased net short positions. The overdue release of the NFP due today will likely give SM the basis to take stops both ways. SM probable move would be to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts pre-NFP and induce breakout long traders before reversing downwards to fade them and depending on the level at which they were faded, reverse maybe about 50-75 pips lower to go back upward. If SM responds on the news with a straight push up all the way to test 1.3775 – 1.3791 we may have a possible reversal move down from supply instead. 
EU long levels  1.3640, 1.3600, 1.3585 EU short levels: 1.3715, 1.3775, 1.3800


GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (48pips) bear closing off the low on vol<4days.The candle close and volume suggests that there is no selling interest and the daily bearish volume divergence since Friday has been playing out. The Asian range is 1.6114 – 1.6146 There is no clear TR in the shorter TF at the moment and I’m using a rough guide of 1.6050 (Fib 50%) – 1.6146 (Asia High). Again, with the NFP news due, SM likely move will be to create buying pressure past Asia high to fade the weak shorts before they reverse to pick up long orders as the push up was significant and they will want to take out weak longs before any further move up in order to reload inventory. 
GU long levels:  1.6100, 1.6055, 1.6000, 1.5990 GU short levels 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6223, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 21 Oct 2013
Review is late out owing to some problems with my PC, still not completely solved yet but here it is.
EU: Weekly- the candle is a normal spread (231pips) bull closing just off the high on below average vol>1week with weekly bearish volume divergence. Price closed at 1.3684, smack at the top of the weekly demand level where the swing high is 1.3710 and closing above the previous week close and open of 1.3638 and 1.3649 respectively. The Daily candle is a small spread (45pips) bull spinning top closing on high vol<3days. The daily candle is no demand at a supply level and with bearish volume divergence. The close and volume suggests downside. However, the weekly candle close does suggest more upside. The Asian range is 1.3670 – 1.3687 TR is 1.3650 – 1.3703 subdivided TRL 1.3650 – 1.3677 and TRU 1.3677 – 1.3703 Technicals: Weekly 78.6%Fib @ 1.3775, confluence High of week 13 Nov 2011 @ 1.3791 and Week open 1.3776 Possible supply at retest of Breakout level 1.3830 – 1.3866, next supply at 1.4177 Trader platform’s open positions show that the trading crowd has increased net short positions. As there is already bearish volume divergence on both the daily and weekly, the context has to be a likely retracement rather than a reversal. However, SM being what they are will be unlikely to give current shorts a free ride down. A probable SM move would be to create selling pressure to fade weak longs and induce breakout short traders, possibly to Asia low or lower before reversing upwards to fade the weak shorts and induce breakout long traders to perhaps 1.3715 level and reverse to create selling pressure for the real retracement to the 1.3600 key level and reversing again for the push upward. If SM does a straight push up all the way to test 1.3775 – 1.3791 without actually retracing below the current TRL 1.3650, we may have a reversal move instead.
EU long levels 1.3655, 1.3640, 1.3600, 1.3585 EU short levels: 1.3715, 1.3775, 1.3800


GU: Week – the candle is a normal spread (331pips) bull closing off the highs on vol>1week. The Daily candle is a small spread (82pips) doji closing on vol<3days. This is a no demand candle with daily bearish volume divergence. The Asian range is 1.6151 – 1.6177 The TR is 1.6135 – 1.6223 with TRL 1.6135 – 1.6177 and TRU 1.6177 – 1.6223. Daily supply levels:  1.6248 – 1.6255, 1.6305 – 1.6330, 1.6350, 1.6360 – 1.6380 Like the EU, the trading crowd has also increased the net=short positions. SM likely move will be to create buying pressure past Asia high to fade the weak shorts but may not go all the way to 1.6223 and reverse for a corrective reversal before any further move up in order to reload inventory and remove the weak longs.
GU long levels:  1.6135, 1.6107, 1.6085, 1.6055, 1.6000, 1.5990 GU short levels 1.6223, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

Dear friends, my apologies I was out and got caught in very bad traffic. It was way past the London open and just at NY open now so no point to post to post the review today. Anyway, I wish everyone good trading and a great weekend.

TrekTrader

DAILY REVIEW 17 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (94 pips) bull small-body spinning top closing on average vol>4days. The daily candle close and volume suggests SM selling into the candle but a closer look at the 3 day’s price action and volume suggests further upside is still possible especially now that the US government is set to re-open. The H4 TR is remains from 1.3461 – 1.3645 with the Lower (TRL): 1.3461 – 1.3520 Upper (TRU): 1.3521 – 1.3645 The Asian range is 1.3515 – [1.3558 and still going] One leading broker states, “The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week.” Anyway, SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts perhaps to the 1.3600 level (as the herd will probably be happily shorting it all the way up) before reversing back to acquire inventory for the push back up again, a possible about-turn could be at the 1.3515 – 1.3520 level. Although it seems a bit high up for a continuation long, we must be mindful that the snatch and grab of yesterday’s price action was strictly SM using the “do you love me, love me not, love me, love me not… between the US President and the Republicans” situation to justify it. As always, shorts near the top and longs near the bottom of the TRU/TRL will likely provide the better trade setups. A H1 close below 1.3461 will likely see more downside.  
EU long levels 1.3515, 1.3490, 1.3478, 1.3462, 1.3355, 1.3270 EU short levels: 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a wide spread (165pips) bear wide-body spinning top on slightly above average vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggest further upside, which would not be unreasonable if the EU takes the north-bound track as well. The price action has redefined the TR into TR1 1.5893 – 1.5977 TR2 1.5977 – 1.6057 TR3 1.6057 – 1.6150 TR4 1.6150 – 1.6259 The GU bronco can easily ride this entire range in a day so it is best to define the levels of interest clearly. The Asian range is 1.5939 – [1.5996 and still going], more or less in the same neighbourhood the past couple of days. SM has done some good hunting both up and down. A broker states, “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week.” This suggests SM is likely to fade weak shorts from yesterday maybe upto yesterday’s high and reverse to create selling pressure before reversing to push past and head north again.  A H1 close above 1.6000 may see more upside as more supply at this level would likely have been absorbed yesterday and a H1 close below 1.5850 will likely see more downside. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure before reversing upwards to retest the key 1.6000 level.
GU long levels: 1.5935, 1.5900, 1.5880, 1.5850 GU short levels: 1.6040, 1.6057, 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 16 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (92 pips) bear closing about 1/2 off the low on average vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests SM buying into the candle. The H4 TR is unchanged 1.3461 – 1.3645 with the Lower (TRL): 1.3461 – 1.3520 Upper (TRU): 1.3521 – 1.3645 The Asian range is 1.3505 – 1.3530 A leading broker states, “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week”. The longer that price holds above 1.3461 which is about August highs and late-September/post-FOMC swing lows, the herd will likely become less short and more long. The seemingly logical direction would be to simply fade the longs or is it? Although longs have increased, shorts are still the majority and the path of least resistance is still northward. Given the impasse in the US and news of “impending deals”,  SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs perhaps to the 1.3490 level before reversing back for the push back up again. One has to be mindful that the price spike yesterday was news of Fitch placing the US’s AAA rating on “watch”. Fitch usually precedes the bigger boys like Moody’s and just a whiff of such news will cause even larger swings as the bigger dog wags its tail. Although I don’t see price closing and diving below the TRL 1.3461, shorts near the top and longs near the bottom will likely provide the better trade setups. A H1 close below 1.3461 will likely see more downside.  
EU long levels 1.3490, 1.3478, 1.3462, 1.3355, 1.3270 EU short levels: 1.3535, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (94pips) bull hammer on average vol>3days. Taken in context, the candle tested and came off the TR low so the close and volume suggests buying into the candle. However, prices stalled once again and failed to close above the TR high so it could be a short trap to induce more shorts again before dropping. The Asian range is 1.5965 – 1.5999, pretty much the same as yesterday. Price is still within the TR of 1.5913 - 1.5985 As noted, price still failed to hold above the key 1.6000 handle yesterday but SM finally closes and covered the gap at 1.5947 A broker states, “The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday” which suggests SM is likely to head upward again for inventory reload if they want to push further downward. A H1 close above 1.6000 may see more upside as more supply at this level would likely have been absorbed yesterday and a H1 close below 1.5850 will likely see more downside. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure before reversing upwards to retest the key 1.6000 level.
GU long levels: 1.5935, 1.5920, 1.5900, 1.5880, 1.5850 GU short levels: 1.6000, 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 15 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (53 pips) upthrust doji closing about 2/3 off the high on low vol<99days. The volume indicates almost no market participation and the Asian range is 1.3549 – 1.3570 ~ almost the same as yesterday. The H4 TR is unchanged 1.3461 – 1.3645 with Lower (TRL): 1.3461 – 1.3520 Upper (TRU): 1.3521 – 1.3645 Nothing has really changed and current prices are still well within range of the weekly supply levels: 1.3650 – 1.3710 However, yesterday’s candle is likely to give the herd cause to short from the highs or thereabouts and this would seem to be in line with the possibility of the US reaching some kind of deal to increase the debt ceiling. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts and induce buying before reversing back into the range and later reverse for the push back up again. It is improbable for a strong price action with no clear resolution in sight for the US. Price action also suggests this is a likely scenario as SM appears to have no interest in even closing the gap at 1.3540 The better trade setups will be at the TRL and TRU. However, as the majority of open positions remain net short, it would not be strange if SM pushes prices up past the 1.3600 handle to retest the higher supply levels. A H1 close below 1.3461 will likely see more downside.  
EU long levels:  1.3550, 1.3529, 1.3507, 1.3485, 1.3462, 1.3355, 1.3270 EU short levels: 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (64pips) bull pin bar on low vol<34days. The candle close suggests no buying pressure and the volume almost no market participation. The Asian range is 1.5951 – 1.5997. Price is still within the TR of 1.5913 - 1.5985 Price still failed to hold above the key 1.6000 handle yesterday. The daily candle, close and volume would entice a lot of traders to go short once price goes anywhere close to the 1.6000 handle and SM has started to reverse somewhat from 1.5997 at the moment. However, it would also be a great short trap as price has yet to close and cover the gap at 1.5947 although it has come close. After the steep run down and bouncing around in this TR for the last 3 days, SM is likely to head upward again as shorts have continued to maintain providing inventory for SM to reload if they want to push further downward. A H1 close above 1.6000 will likely see more upside as some supply at this level would likely have been absorbed and a H1 close below 1.5850 will likely see more downside.
GU long levels: 1.5935, 1.5922, 1.5900, 1.5880, 1.5850 GU short levels: 1.6000, 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 14 Oct 2013
EU: Weekly: The candle is a small spread (121pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol <1week. The candle close and volume suggests no selling interest. The Daily candle is a below-average spread (63 pips) bull closing about slightly more than ½ off the high on below-average vol<2days in which volume suggests that there is no buying interest and candle close suggests no selling interest. Price opened with a +20pips gap up and the Asian range is 1.3545 – 1.3568 The H4 TR is unchanged 1.3461 – 1.3645 with Lower (TRL): 1.3461 – 1.3520 Upper (TRU): 1.3521 – 1.3645 Friday’s price action and today’s open suggests that nothing has really changed with Friday’s price action appearing to be continued accumulation from Thursday with current prices well within range of the weekly supply levels: 1.3650 – 1.3710 SM is likely to create selling pressure either from Asia high or maybe 1.3575 - 1.3580 to around the 1.3530 – 1.3510 level and then reverse for the push back up. Price action would suggest this is a likely scenario as SM appear reluctant to re-visit the 1.3510 – 1.3500 levels. Again, trade setups at the TRL and TRU should provide good entries. A H1 close below 1.3461 will likely see more downside.  
EU long levels:  1.3529, 1.3507, 1.3485, 1.3462, 1.3355, 1.3270 EU short levels: 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: WEEKLY: The candle is a below-average spread (210pips) bear closing off the low on low vol <1day. The Daily candle is a below-average spread (78pips) bear spinning top on low vol<33days. The candle close and spread suggests no selling pressure. Price opened with a +22pips gap up and the Asian range is 1.5962 – 1.5988, almost identical to last Friday. Price is still within the TR of 1.5913 - 1.5985 From the price action and volume, it is likely that SM may want to collect more orders further north even if the intent is to drop further. The gap up and upward movement has already taken out some weak short traders. SM is likely to create selling pressure from Asia high to fade weak longs and close the gap and collect gap traders’ stops before reversing upwards to test and close above 1.6000. A H1 close above 1.6000 will likely see more upside  and a H1 close below 1.5850 will likely see more downside.
GU long levels: 1.5935, 1.5927, 1.5900, 1.5880, 1.5850 GU short levels: 1.6000, 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 11 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (58 pips) near-doji bear closing about slightly more than ½ off the low on below-average vol<1days. The close and volume suggests that SM bought into the candle lows and suggests possible upside.   The Asian range is 1.3517 – 1.3543 with TR 1.3504 – 1.3545, H4 TR is 1.3461 – 1.3645. H4 TR is unchanged, Lower (TRL): 1.3461 – 1.3520 Upper (TRU): 1.3521 – 1.3645 SM is likely to create selling pressure and probably not spike yesterday’s low this is likely to release traders that are trapped short. Nothing has really changed yet except that yesterday appears to be continued accumulation. SM is likely to create selling pressure from the current high and reverse around the 1.3505 – 1.3510 level and reverse for the push back up. This is a likely scenario as stops below the key level 1.3500 have likely been grabbed already in their forage yesterday. There are short-term supply/demand and manipulation levels that have confluence with Fibs that I will interested in a possible reversal. However, looking for trades at the TRL and TRU should provide good entries. A H1 close below 1.3561 will likely see more downside.  
EU long levels:  1.3507, 1.3485, 1.3462, 1.3355, 1.3270 EU short levels:  1.3520, 1.3535, 1.3553, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (64pips) bull closing off the high on below average vol<2days. The candle close and spread suggests no buying pressure. As I write, the Asian range is 1.5962 – 1.5989 and looks to go higher and the TR high of 1.5985 just broken. The TR is 1.5913 - 1.5985 Any continued upward movement is more likely to be a retracement at this point in time. SM has just broken above the TR high of 1.5985 Being Friday, SM will want to book some profits after the monster move down so we may see SM do a whiplash-type movement, from possibly the 1.6000 key level to induce shorts on selling pressure, perhaps even up to around 1.5940 and reverse back upwards, at this point, the whole pack of shorts will be piling on orders and once SM is full, they will reverse up with renewed vigour to the 1.6000 or higher. A H1 close below 1.5850 will likely see more downside.
GU long levels: 1.5940, 1.5927 1.5900, 1.5880, 1.5850 GU short levels: 1.6000, 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 10 Oct 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a wide spread (119 pips) bear closing about ½ off the low on above-average vol>14days. The close and volume suggests that SM bought into the candle lows and suggests possible upside.   The Asian range is 1.3487 – 1.3527 with TR 1.3485 – 1.3535, H4 TR is 1.3461 – 1.3645. To bring more focus to the levels, H4 TR can be seen as Lower (TRL): 1.3461 – 1.3520 Upper (TRU): 1.3521 – 1.3645 Notable levels for potential long/short trades will be stopruns at these levels. However, there will be other manipulation levels in-between. H1 candles that close into each boundary will provide the intraday directional bias. FOMC day never ceases to surprise and especially so with the US impasse being the fuel for SM with all kinds of rumours. Yesterday, I noted that “A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3537 would likely see more downside”. SM is likely to take this period to either accumulate or distribute while the powers that be attempt to get their act together. SM is likely to create selling pressure and may or may not spike yesterday’s low as doing so will probably release many traders that are trapped short. In the event that they don’t, and they may not need to because the low was created by a news spike and it is unlikely that many would have hopped on for a long and by going low enough, many will have their orders taken out earlier as these traders cover their positions and SM gladly buys it off them. In this more likely scenario, they will then reverse to fade the shorts before ending the day with or without a larger push back down. Apart from some manipulation levels that have confluence with Fibs, supply/demand levels, looking for trades at the TRL and TRU will probably provide good entries. In case of tapebombs, a H1 close below 1.3561 will likely see more downside.  

EU long levels:  1.3485, 1.3462, 1.3355, 1.3270 EU short levels:  1.3520, 1.3535, 1.3553, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a ultra-wide spread (206pips) bear closing ¼ off the low on above average vol>5days. The candle close and spread suggests more downside but slowing momentum. The Asian range is 1.5913 – 1.5964 The TR is 1.5913 - 1.5985 Note that price has already broken yesterday’s low and we have continuing bullish volume divergence on H1. After the monster news-induced move yesterday, this overstretched “rubberband may be reaching it’s limits soon and a retracement my well yield a tidy return. Notable:  H1 ema800 (also H4 ema200) @ 1.5901 confluence with key level 1.5900 slightly below which may be a stop hunt area for SM. Next is 50%Fib 1.5860 confluence with trendline support and Gap close level @ 1.5872 SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to fade weak longs possibly to around 1.5880 before reversing back up.  A H1 close below 1.5850 will likely see more downside.

GU long levels: 1.5900, 1.5880, 1.5850 GU short levels: 1.5964, 1.5985, 1.6000, 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 9 Oct 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (50 pips) bear spinning top closing on below-average vol>1day. The close and volume suggests no selling pressure and may also hint at possible accumulation.

 The Asian range is 1.3561 – 1.3604 with a TR 1.3537 – 1.3605 with an upper bound 1.3562 – 1.3605 and a lower bound 1.3537 – 1.3562. Notable levels (unchanged):  1.3537, 1.3520 confluence with 1.3517 (23.6%Fib), 1.3597 (last Fri NY high) We note that price spiked below the 1.3562 level yesterday and then kept closing above it. Price also failed to close above the 1.3600 level  making a double top in the H1 chart and a bear engulfing candle in the H4 chart. However, volume appears to be drying up as price reaches the lower bound 1.3562  This suggests that SM may be done with the lower bound. However, there is still some way before the H4 candle closes. My guess is that SM has painted a picture of an impending down move to state the obvious. However, a possible SM play would be to continue the selling pressure fading and discouraging longs before reversing back up to test supply. A possible reversal area would be the 1.3562 area. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3537 would likely see more downside.

EU long levels:  1.3562, 1.3537, 1.3520, 1.3505 EU short levels:  1.3573, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (105pips) bear high-wave with the long tail below closing on below average vol>1day. The candle close and spread suggests more downside and the volume suggests SM mark-up/fading of weak shorts. The Asian range is 1.6060 – 1.6120 The TR is unchanged  1.6004 - 1.6076 with price testing the 1.6100 level twice but failing to close above it and currently back in the TR. SM painted a double top as well.  Notable: confluence[H1 ema200 @ 1.6110 61.8% Fib 1.6110], 38.2%Fib @ 1.6070, 23.6%Fib @1.5917 confluence with trend channel support. Gap close level @ 1.5872 Weekly ema200@ 1.5946 The longer that price stays above the Monday gap, the more unlikely it is to close. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to fade weak longs before reversing back up.  A H1 close below 1.6000 will likely see more downside.

GU long levels:  1.6050, 1.6020, 1.6000, 1.5978, 1.5954, 1.5931, 1.5848, 1.5824 GU short levels: 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 8 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (49pips) bull closing off the high on below-average vol<5days. The close and volume suggests no buying pressure. The Asian range is 1.3556 – 1.3581 with a TR 1.3537 – 1.3581 basically almost the same TR as yesterday. This means that prices are either being distributed or being accumulated for the next move. Notable levels (unchanged):  1.3537, 1.3520 confluence with 1.3517 (23.6%Fib), 1.3597 (last Fri NY high) The game continues as it is likely that SM has got the herd sold on the “it’s going to tank anytime now”. so the SM will probably play the same game buy creating buying pressure to remove weak shorts whilst inducing trend traders long, reverse and drop again to fade weak longs and reverse back upwards (if you think this sounds familiar, it is as the same as yesterday). 
EU long levels:  1.3537, 1.3520, 1.3505 EU short levels:  1.3573, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (84pips) bull closing just off the high on below average vol<29days. The candle close and spread suggests more downside and the volume suggests SM mark-up/fading of weak shorts. Notable levels are unchanged: confluence[H1 ema200 @ 1.6114 M15 ema @ 1.6107 61.8% Fib 1.6110], 38.2%Fib @ 1.6070, 23.6%Fib @1.5917 confluence with trend channel support. Gap close level @ 1.5872 Weekly ema200@ 1.5946 Note that price opened the week with a +17pips gap up that has not been closed yet. The Asian range is 1.6064 – 1.6098 The TR is unchanged  1.6004 - 1.6076 with price testing the top earlier. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts before reversing back down. 
GU long levels:  1.6050, 1.6000, 1.5978, 1.5954, 1.5931, 1.5848, 1.5824 GU short levels: 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 7 Oct 2013
EU: Weekly: The candle is a small spread (169pips) bull closing ½ off the high on below average vol>1week with bearish volume divergence. The Daily candle is a normal spread (94pips) bear closing off the low on below-average vol<4days. The close and volume suggests no selling pressure. “06 September 2013 – The main theme in the FX space was renewed US dollar strength as QE tapering talk ramped up. – IG Markets” This resulted in the downward price action last Friday and being a Friday, market participation was likely more SM as can be seen by the relatively weak volume activity. The Asian range is 1.3558 – 1.3573 with a TR 1.3537 – 1.3558 Prices gapped up by 6pips on the open. Notable levels:  1.3537, 1.3520 confluence with 1.3517 (23.6%Fib), 1.3597 (Fri NY high) If this is a game of psycho, then SM has got the herd sold on the “it’s going to drop like a rock” so the likely move will be to create buying pressure to remove weak shorts whilst inducing trend traders long, reverse and drop again to fade weak longs and reverse back upwards. The only thing that is clear is that neither the US nor Europe are strong at the moment so we can expect news without substantive data or fundamentals which will make for whipsaws and unexpected movements.
EU long levels:  1.3537, 1.3520, 1.3505 EU short levels:  1.3573, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: Weekly: The candle is a normal spread (255pips) pin high bear closing at the low on average vol>5weeks with bearish volume divergence. The Daily candle is a large spread (173pips) bear closing at the low on below average vol<24days. The candle close and spread suggests more downside and the volume suggests more mark-down than herd participation. Notable levels: confluence[H1 ema200 @ 1.6114 M15 ema @ 1.6107 61.8% Fib 1.6110], 38.2%Fib @ 1.6070, 23.6%Fib @1.5917 confluence with trend channel support. Gap close level @ 1.5872 Weekly ema200@ 1.5946 Price opened with a +17pips gap up that has not been closed yet. The Asian range is 1.6015 – 1.6047 The TR is 1.6004 - 1.6076 With the daily candle close, price is almost certain to make a lower low today and taking any long above Friday’s low before it happens may well be suicidal. Looking at the market structure, the move is more likely to be “correcting” in market terminology rather than a full blown reversal at this point. Price can be expected to push lower and re-accumulate for a push back up, possibly when the NFP is finally released, who knows? SM is likely to fade weak shorts before reversing down again, at this point, it is unlikely to see longs coming back into the market as a lot of them will have been gobbled up by last week’s moves. 
GU long levels:  1.5978, 1.5954, 1.5931, 1.5848, 1.5824 GU short levels: 1.6076, 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 4 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (69pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on above-average vol<2days with continued bearish volume divergence. The candle indicates “no demand” but the above average volume suggests more upside to test weekly supply at the 1.3700 level. The herd has continued to pile on short positions as brokers report further increase in net short positions. Technicals: 161.8 Fib Extension @ 1.3665 confluence with 1.3655 – 1.3670, M15 ema200 1.3594 confluence with short term demand 1.3590 The Asian range is 1.3617 – 1.3631 Whilst there is daily bearish volume divergence, the spread and level of assumed stall does not add up. SM did their vacuum cleaning again yesterday sweeping up and down and back up again. With prices close to 1.3700 with delicious orders sitting above, it will be very tempting to resist. It is a high probability that supply is still intact at this level and a reversal or at least a strong reaction from here is possible. With the NFP unknown till a solution is found to the impasse in the US, SM will likely push test supply and position prices for a fall in anticipation of a US resolution (what a game!). The trading range has been established 1.3615 – 1.3645 The likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to induce shorts before reversing upwards to test/breakthrough the highs but be mindful that being Friday, they may actually whipsaw up and down before taking off. One leading broker reports that “retail traders have been net-short Euro since it crossed above $1.29 in July”, ouch…. that must really hurt…..
EU long levels:  1.3615, 1.3607, 1.3590, 1.3570, 1.3548, 1.3520, 1.3505 EU short levels:  1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (87pips) bear closing at the low on average vol>1 day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. With yesterday’s close at 1.6153, technically we have seen a lower low than yesterday, we also note that SM has actually stop hunted Wednesday’s low. The Asian range is 1.6152 – 1.6177 The TR is 1.6152 - 1.6179 One broker reports “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week”.  So as expected, SM gobbled up some weak longs yesterday and against conventional wisdom may turn back up today or simply stall and bounce up and down in the TR looking to drop and picking up more shorts before they head upward. In the event that SM stophunts the TR lows, a H1 break and close below 1.6127 will see more downside and a pullback to breakout short entry (with setup) can be considered. Another possible play could be SM pushing prices up to the 1.6190 - 1.6200 level, a stophunt or other clear setup hear may also make a for a decent 40pip trade or so. Again, I am no clairvoyant and do not have a crystal ball, it is Friday and SM will dance, let’s just keep our feet out of their way. A leading broker reports that “crowds have been short since the GBP crossed above $1.52 in August”, double ouch….. that must hurt just as bad……
GU long levels:  1.6152, 1.6135, 1.6127, 1.6070, 1.6037, 1.6025 GU short levels: 1.6185, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 3 Oct 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (102pips) bull spinning top closing on above-average vol>9days on continued bearish volume divergence. Price had broken decisively out of the TR and closed above the monthly open of 1.3575 of 1 Feb 2013, this is significant because this is the “launch pad” from which the last attempt to test supply at the 1.3700 level failed and becomes a high probability reversal area.SM used the huge daily pin bar to suck in shorts and used Draghi’s speech to springboard and swallowed them all. One broker platform declares “Short positions are near record highs as they are higher than yesterday and above levels seen last week”.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside and it has already happened as prices pushed higher early and the Asian range is 1.3576 – 1.3622 SM has taken out many shorts and is now closer to 1.3700 weekly supply level which if tested will be the first time since 1 Feb 2013. Being the first time, it is likely that supply is still intact at this level and the probability of a reversal or at least a strong reaction from here is more probable. With the forthcoming NFP tomorrow, whether it happens or not owing to the continued impasse in the US, SM will likely still position prices in the opposite direction of the intended move and marking up would be in line with the technical trend. A clear trading range has been established 1.3575 – 1.3622 and with the H1 pin bar in place, the likely SM move will be to create selling pressure to fade weak longs and induce shorts before reversing to test the highs but be mindful that they may also spike the high or push up a little to stophunt and then drop to create the selling pressure. No matter what they do, only take trades at the edges or outside the TR to minimize risk.  Should H1 see price close above 1.3710, it will probably see more upside as supply is exhausted. Technicals: 161.8 Fib Extension @ 1.3665 confluence with 1.3655 – 1.3670

EU long levels:  1.3575, 1.3548, 1.3520, 1.3505, 1.3460  EU short levels:  1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (88pips) bull spinning top closing on average vol<1 day. Key level to pay attention to is the 1.6300 weekly supply level which has been tested 4 times already which suggests that it may not have sufficient supply remaining to stop demand pushing through. This lines up with the Monthly candle closing at the high on low volume that suggests a bulk of SM mark up rather than a herd driven push. The Asian range is 1.6161 – 1.6199 The price action yesterday suggests accumulation and the accumulated 2 price-volume picture shows bearish volume divergence as price reaches supply. Prices are well within reach of the weekly supply levels and having come this far, the shorts look too tempting to resist for SM. One broker platform writes “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week” which is strongly indicative of crowd behavior. SM would likely fade more longs before using the crowd to jump back in on buying pressure. The clearly defined TR is 1.6129 - 1.6259 With lots of longs already in the food chain of the SM, we can expect deeper pullback before an up move. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade the longs before reversing upwards.

GU long levels:  1.6142, 1.6111 - 1.6105, 1.6077, 1.6037, 1.6025 GU short levels: 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 2 Oct 2013

EU: Perspective: Monthly candle is a normal spread (463pips) solid bull closing just off the high on very low vol <28months, this is at a supply level and deemed “no demand”. However the candle close on the monthly suggests more upside from the month high of 1.3567. The Daily candle is a below-average spread (71pips) pin bar doji closing on above-average vol>8days on bearish volume divergence. Price had broken out of the TR high 1.3567 and tested the weekly/daily supply levels upto 1.3587. The candle close and volume suggests more downside and on the basis of where price tested and fell without any retest suggests supply and not mere manipulation, in order for SM to push through this level, they will need to re-accumulate orders thus they will likely have to retrace downward to do so, at the moment it is unlikely to become a full blown reversal when we look at the monthly perspective. The Asian range is 1.3506 – 1.3528 The likely SM move will be to take stops at Asia lows to create selling pressure to induce shorts before reversing to test 1.3545. and possibly reversing back down.  

EU long levels:  1.3500, 1.3470, 1.3460  EU short levels:  1.3545, 1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3583, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (78pips) bull pin bar closing on high vol>8days with bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more selling. The Asian range is 1.6161 – 1.6199 Perspective is that the Monthly candle is a normal spread bull closing at the high on vol<8 months. This would indicate possible continued upside. As I write, SM has broken the Asia highs and price looks to be moving upward to perhaps test the supply yesterday before reversing downward.   

GU long levels:  1.6158, 1.6111 - 1.6105, 1.6037, 1.6025 GU short levels: 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 1 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (79pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>4days. The candle close suggests more downside but the increasing volume and price position suggests accumulation. The candle is an “Inside day” candle and price is within the Trading Range (TR) 1.3461 - 1.3567. Short positions have increased on brokers’ platforms.  Price has moved early in Asia and the Asian range is 1.3516 – 1.3551 The likely SM move will be to reverse to create selling pressure to induce shorts before reversing to test 1.35567. Thinking aloud, there is no reason why SM could not have taken out the 1.3567 level, why stop short even of the 1.3555 level yesterday? Unless it is to convince the shorts to re-enter the fray for them to stock up a bit more inventory as they reverse and take them out.  EU long levels:  1.3517, 1.3500, 1.3470, 1.3460  EU short levels: 1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (74pips) bull closing just off the high on high vol>6days with bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Short positions continue to build up on brokers’ platforms and price has broken yesterday’s high with the Asian range now 1.6181 – 1.6245 SM has made new highs and there is bearish volume divergence on H1 , SM is likely to reverse to create selling pressure, inducing shorts before reversing to resume the upward move.  
GU long levels:  1.6181, 1.6158, 1.6111 - 1.6105, 1.6037, 1.6025 GU short levels: 1.6255, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380