EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (130pips) bull closing just off the high on vol>2days. The close and volume suggests more upside and there is now daiy bearish volume divergence. Price is now in the previous daily congestion level approximately 1.3766 – 1.3866 and next daily supply level at 1.4200 – 1.4250 With the daily bearish divergence in place, the probability is for price to compress in the congestion area and probably correct downwards before further attempts upwards. The Asian range is 1.3768 – 1.3792 at the moment. TR is 1.3726 – 1.3792 SM killed off a lot of weak shorts yesterday and these blokes are not about to jump back in a hurry. The anticipated SM move will be to fade weak longs before reversing to test the high. As a daily bearish divergence is in place, this may also be a possible reversal level as stated yesterday. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3766 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3743, 1.3726 (pre-London, London) EU short levels: 1.3792, 1.3800, 1.3860
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (132pips) bull closing just off the high on vol>2days.The candle close and volume suggests further upside and there is also daily bearish volume divergence. The immediate potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) and the next daily supply level is at 1.6400 – 1.6455
The Asian range is 1.6226 – 1.6255 TR 1.6177 – 1.6255 TRL 1.6177 – 1.6210 TRU 1.6210 – 1.6255 SM took out many weak shorts in one move yesterday and the likely move is to fade weak longs through London before reversing and moving up to retest the day high at least. The only two levels that will be of interest to go long will be the 1.6210 and 1.6177 level. A H1 close below the TRL low of 1.6177 may lead to a change of bias.
GU long levels: 1.6202, 1.6077 (pre-London/London), GU short levels: 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
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