DAILY REVIEW 17 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (94 pips) bull small-body spinning top closing on average vol>4days. The daily candle close and volume suggests SM selling into the candle but a closer look at the 3 day’s price action and volume suggests further upside is still possible especially now that the US government is set to re-open. The H4 TR is remains from 1.3461 – 1.3645 with the Lower (TRL): 1.3461 – 1.3520 Upper (TRU): 1.3521 – 1.3645 The Asian range is 1.3515 – [1.3558 and still going] One leading broker states, “The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week.” Anyway, SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts perhaps to the 1.3600 level (as the herd will probably be happily shorting it all the way up) before reversing back to acquire inventory for the push back up again, a possible about-turn could be at the 1.3515 – 1.3520 level. Although it seems a bit high up for a continuation long, we must be mindful that the snatch and grab of yesterday’s price action was strictly SM using the “do you love me, love me not, love me, love me not… between the US President and the Republicans” situation to justify it. As always, shorts near the top and longs near the bottom of the TRU/TRL will likely provide the better trade setups. A H1 close below 1.3461 will likely see more downside.  
EU long levels 1.3515, 1.3490, 1.3478, 1.3462, 1.3355, 1.3270 EU short levels: 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3631, 1.3655, 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a wide spread (165pips) bear wide-body spinning top on slightly above average vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggest further upside, which would not be unreasonable if the EU takes the north-bound track as well. The price action has redefined the TR into TR1 1.5893 – 1.5977 TR2 1.5977 – 1.6057 TR3 1.6057 – 1.6150 TR4 1.6150 – 1.6259 The GU bronco can easily ride this entire range in a day so it is best to define the levels of interest clearly. The Asian range is 1.5939 – [1.5996 and still going], more or less in the same neighbourhood the past couple of days. SM has done some good hunting both up and down. A broker states, “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week.” This suggests SM is likely to fade weak shorts from yesterday maybe upto yesterday’s high and reverse to create selling pressure before reversing to push past and head north again.  A H1 close above 1.6000 may see more upside as more supply at this level would likely have been absorbed yesterday and a H1 close below 1.5850 will likely see more downside. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure before reversing upwards to retest the key 1.6000 level.
GU long levels: 1.5935, 1.5900, 1.5880, 1.5850 GU short levels: 1.6040, 1.6057, 1.6120, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6197, 1.6226, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380