EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (43pips) bear spinning top on low vol<4days. The candle close suggests that there may be a bit more downside but the volume suggests no selling pressure. The Asian range is 1.3768 – 1.793 and remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 Yesterday saw SM absorb shorts to slightly above the 1.3800 key level. Broker platforms continue to show high levels of open short positions, the closest orders will all be north-bound and on the way to the supply at 1.3860 SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce even more shorts before reversing upward possibly to test yesterday’s high and also maybe push higher to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3768, 1.3743 EU short levels: 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (84pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<4days.The candle close and volume suggests that there no selling interest. The Asian range is 1.6063 – 1.6143. SM has been inducing shorts the whole day. Probable SM move will be to reverse and create buying pressure to fade the weak short about the 1.6180 and then chop around before news determines their next move. The likely move is still upwards owing to the stacks of orders piled on from above.
GU long levels: 1.6085, 1.6010, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
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