DAILY REVIEW 29 February 2016

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a small range (274pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (213pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.  

DAY- The candle is a large spread (156pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Over the weekend, the G20 leaders agreed on "cooperation" to use all policy measures available for stability but apparently with nothing specific on currency manipulation. In essence, a lot of hot air with more of the same.

Oanda order book:  trapped shorts are forming the bulk of the volume distribution.  

Potential demand stacks:  1.0910-1.0880

Potential supply stacks: 1.1092-1.1105

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1063-1.1085 

We are on the last day of February as this leap year gives us a 29th day. We do have some news events today so do expect SM to make the most of it (as usual) to whipsaw as they take profits to close the books and re-position themselves for March. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the 1.0900 key level or lower before reversing to fade weak shorts.

EU long levels: 1.0875, 1.0820 , 1.0955 

EU short levels: 1.0960, 1.1065

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average (736pips) bear closing about 1/4 off the low on low vol>4months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is an ultralarge spread (537pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (188pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside and hints at buying activity starting.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: volumes are extremely thin with trapped shorts now forming the bulk of the volume distribution.

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.3864-1.3833, 1.3650-1.3600, 1.3570-1.3550

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.3916-1.3940, 1.4028-1.4075, 1.4213-1.4230

There is no significant UK data release today and we can expect SM to oscillate. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.3960 level or higher before reversing to continue the down move.

GU long levels: 1.4050, 1.3890

GU short levels: 1.3916, 1.3972, 1.4032, 1.4075, 1.4120, 1.4234, 1.4360, 1.4420, 1.4485, 1.4500, 1.4600-1.4615, 1.4665-1.4680

Posted at 3.53 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 25 February 2016

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a small range (274pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (183pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on average vol<2weeks. The candle closeand volume suggests reduced demand and more downside.  

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (89pips) bear "spring" on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying activity but more downside can be expected.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Tumbling oil prices with the expected additional supply of Iranian oil also creates further uncertainty. FED Chair Yellen's testimony suggesting that no further rate hike is on the cards anytime soon continues to fuel the bulls.

Oanda order book:  freshly trapped shorts form the bulk of the volume distribution.  

Potential demand stacks:  1.0993-1.0958

Potential supply stacks: no significant stacks

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1040-1.1061 

The US Core Durable Goods data plus FED member Lockhart speaking will drive this pair. Price is retracing and selling pressure is on, SM is likely to fade weak longs to around the 1.1000 key level or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1000, 1.0980 , 1.0955 

EU short levels: 1.1050, 1.1117, 1.1130, 1.1330, 1.1375, 1.1400-1.1410, 1.1421-1.1430

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average (736pips) bear closing about 1/4 off the low on low vol>4months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a normal spread (300pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests buing absorption and more downside can be exoected.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (149pips) bear closing about 1/4 off the low on high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: volumes are extremely thin with clear trapped shorts now forming the bulk of the volume distribution.

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.3920-1.3895, 1.3879-1.3862, 1.3644-1.3622, 1.3570-1.3550

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.3950-1.3983, 1.4000-1.4037, 1.4208-1.4229, 1.4300-1.4323

There is UK GDP soon and it will be the catalyst for GBP. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.4065 level or higher before reversing to continue the down move.

GU long levels: 1.4050, 1.3890

GU short levels: 1.4075, 1.4120, 1.4234, 1.4360, 1.4420, 1.4485, 1.4500, 1.4600-1.4615, 1.4665-1.4680

Posted at 3.53 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 24 February 2016

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a small range (274pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (183pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on average vol<2weeks. The candle closeand volume suggests reduced demand and more downside.  

DAY- The candle is a small spread (62pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<6days. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of selling pressure.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Tumbling oil prices with the expected additional supply of Iranian oil also creates further uncertainty. FED Chair Yellen's testimony suggesting that no further rate hike is on the cards anytime soon continues to fuel the bulls.

Oanda order book:  freshly trapped shorts form the bulk of the volume distribution.  

Potential demand stacks:  1.0955-1.0945

Potential supply stacks: no significant stacks

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0991-1.0982
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1019-1.1055, 1.1110-1.1120 

US New Homes Sales data later will be the catalyst for the day. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around the 1.1050 level or higher before reversing to test 1.1000.

EU long levels: 1.0980 , 1.0955 

EU short levels: 1.1050, 1.1117, 1.1130, 1.1330, 1.1375, 1.1400-1.1410, 1.1421-1.1430

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average (736pips) bear closing about 1/4 off the low on low vol>4months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a normal spread (300pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests buing absorption and more downside can be exoected.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (147pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside,

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: volumes are extremely thin with clear trapped shorts now beginning to form the bulk of the volume distribution.

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.3959-1.3950, 1.3675-1.3662

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.3988-1.4075, 1.4150-1.4172, 1.4300-1.4323

There is no significant UK data today. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.4065 level or higher before reversing to continue the down move.

GU long levels: 1.4050, 1.3890

GU short levels: 1.4075, 1.4120, 1.4234, 1.4360, 1.4420, 1.4485, 1.4500, 1.4600-1.4615, 1.4665-1.4680

Posted at 1.21 am EST