DAILY REVIEW 29 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (179pips) bear inverted "hammer" closing on low vol<3weeks. The candle close suggests more downsidebut the volume suggests a lack of selling interest.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (72pips) bull spinning top closing on very high vol>14days. The candle close close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC Minutes release put in a nutshell simply says, "we want to raise rates but we won't tell you until we see more supporting data"..... This has led to continued USD weakness and will continue to do so.

Oanda order book:  Volumes remain thin with majority of short trapped positions but with newly profitable longs from 1.1350 and above.

Potential demand stacks: 1.1335-1.1320, 1.1280-1.1265, 1.1246-1.1230, 1.1210-1.1195, 1.1151-1.1135

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1400-1.1415, 1.1433-1.1440

Prices pushed higher as expected after selling was absorbed. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to the 1.1420 level or higher before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1350, 1.1320, 1.1310-1.1300, 1.1275-1.1260, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1228

EU short levels:  1.1420, 1.1465-1.1480, 1.1494-1.1505, 1.1527-1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (320pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (99pips) bull closing at the high on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Trapped short volumes are more significant and now in play.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4625-1.4597, 1.4587-1.4570, 1.4538-1.4510, 1.4496-1.4490, 1.4472-1.4455

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4647-1.4662, 1.4670-1.4690, 1.4705

As expected, prices have pushed higher with the range high 1.4668 in sight and the daily Fib 61.8% at 1.4697. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to the 1.4670 level or higher before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4520, 1.4505-1.4490, 1.4460, 1.4445-1.4432, 1.4405-1.4400, 1.4367, 1.4335, 1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4670, 1.4680-1.4690, 1.4700-1.4720, 1.4750 

Posted at 1.21 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 28 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (179pips) bear inverted "hammer" closing on low vol<3weeks. The candle close suggests more downsidebut the volume suggests a lack of selling interest.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (88pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on average vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC Minutes release put in a nutshell simply says, "we want to raise rates but we won't tell you until we see more supporting data"..... This has led to continued USD weakness and will continue to do so.

Oanda order book:  Volumes remain thin with majority of short trapped positions but with newly profitable longs from 1.1320 and above.

Potential demand stacks: 1.1280-1.1265, 1.1246-1.1230, 1.1210-1.1195, 1.1151-1.1135

Potential supply stacks: 1.1388-1.1408

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

The whipsaw following the FOMC minutes and rate decision was somewhat expected and went to 1.1272 vs our expected 1.1275 level before reversing. SM is likely to create selling pressure to the 1.1300 level or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1310-1.1300, 1.1275-1.1260, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1228

EU short levels: 1.1384, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1450, 1.1494-1.1505, 1.1527-1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (320pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is an above average spread (147pips) bear spinning top cosing on high vol>13days. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of selling.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Trapped short volumes are more significant and now in play.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4516-1.4485, 1.4472-1.4445, 1.4434-1.4423, 1.4400-1.4385, 1.4317-1.4308, 1.4295-1.4280, 1.4270-1.4260

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4453-1.4590, 1.4598-1.4610, 1.4615-1.4622, 1.4628-1.4641, 1.4650-1.4675

The whipsaw went all the way to 1.4473 clearing the board as expected on the FOMC minutes. UK HPI data will be out soon. SM is likely to fade weak longs to the 1.4420 level or lower before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4520, 1.4505-1.4490, 1.4460, 1.4445-1.4432, 1.4405-1.4400, 1.4367, 1.4335, 1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4605, 1.4620, 1.4635

Posted at 1.47 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 27 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (179pips) bear inverted "hammer" closing on low vol<3weeks. The candle close suggests more downsidebut the volume suggests a lack of selling interest.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (83pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC Minutes release put in a nutshell simply says, "we want to raise rates but we won't tell you until we see more supporting data"..... This has led to continued USD weakness and will continue to do so.

Oanda order book:  Volumes remain thin with no clear bias in trapped positions.

Potential demand stacks: 1.1280-1.1265, 1.1246-1.1230, 1.1210-1.1195, 1.1151-1.1135

Potential supply stacks: 1.1388-1.1408

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

We have the US Pending Home Sales data release followed by the FOMC Statement and Interest Rate decision later today. We can expect that SM will use the news releases to whipsaw, clearing out positions ahead of the intended move. SM faded weak shorts to 1.1280 yesterday before moving back up. SM is likely to create selling pressure to the 1.1280 level or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1275-1.1260, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1228

EU short levels: 1.1320, 1.1330-1.1340, 1.1384, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1450, 1.1494-1.1505, 1.1527-1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (320pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (160pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on high vol>12days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Trapped long volumes are more significant and now in play.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4472-1.4445, 1.4434-1.4423, 1.4400-1.4385, 1.4317-1.4308, 1.4295-1.4280, 1.4270-1.4260

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4513-1.4534, 1.4605-1.4615

The bear trap was sprung taking out a lot of short stops. The UK GDP release today will position prices for the move. SM is likely to fade weak longs to the 1.4543 level or lower before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4525, 1.4505-1.4490, 1.4460, 1.4445-1.4432, 1.4405-1.4400, 1.4367, 1.4335, 1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4520-1.4535, 1.4550, 1.4600

Posted at 2.07 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 26 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (179pips) bear inverted "hammer" closing on low vol<3weeks. The candle close suggests more downsidebut the volume suggests a lack of selling interest.

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (63pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<19days. The candle close suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC Minutes release put in a nutshell simply says, "we want to raise rates but we won't tell you until we see more supporting data"..... This has led to continued USD weakness and will continue to do so.

Oanda order book:  Volumes are thin and there is no clear bias in trapped positions.

Potential demand stacks: 1.1246-1.1230, 1.1210-1.1195, 1.1151-1.1135

Potential supply stacks: 1.1292-1.1305, 1.1387-1.1405

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

The US Core Durable Goods data will be released later today. SM is in the process of  fading weak shorts to the 1.1300 key level or higher before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1240, 1.1215

EU short levels: 1.1300, 1.1320, 1.1384, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1450, 1.1494-1.1505, 1.1527-1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (320pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (117pips) bull "near doji" closing on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests a bear trap being put in place.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Trapped short volumes are more significant but there are also profitable long volumes that may come into play.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4472-1.4445, 1.4434-1.4423, 1.4400-1.4385, 1.4317-1.4308, 1.4295-1.4280, 1.4270-1.4260

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4513-1.4534, 1.4605-1.4615

The bear trap is still being sprung. SM is likely to retest yesterday's high 1.4519 level or higher before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4405-1.4400, 1.4367, 1.4335, 1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4520-1.4535, 1.4550, 1.4600

Posted at 12.13 am EST