DAILY REVIEW 12 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (127pips) doji closing on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of selling. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (75pips) bear small body spinning top closing on vol<9days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC Minutes release put in a nutshell simply says, "we want to raise rates but we won't tell you until we see more supporting data"..... This has led to continued USD weakness and will continue to do so.

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes remain overwhelmingly significant but there is now trapped long volume also in play from around the 1.1400 key level.

Potential demand stacks:  1.1303-1.1295, 1.1285-1.1267, 1.1257-1.1228, 1.1211-1.1200, 1.1153-1.1140

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1321-1.1311
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1500-1.1605,1.1622-1.1635, 1.1670-1.1680

The stops of the newly trapped long volumes will likely be the new buy positions for SM to pick up before breaking out of the 1.1450 level. SM is likely to retest the yesterday's Asia high of 1.1427 or higher before reversing to retest the 1.1370 level or lower before continuing north. 

EU long levels: 1.1400-1.1390, 1.1370, 1.1350, 1.1320, 1.1290-1.1284,1.1272, 1.1253

EU short levels: 1.1427, 1.1450, 1.1494-1.1505, 1.1527-1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (316pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (183pips) bull closing 1/4 off the high on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Volume remains thin and with newly trapped long volumes significant.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: 1.4400-1.4410

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4128-1.4108, 1.4051-1.4041

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4141-1.4200, 1.4220-1.4233, 1.4245-1.4265

Prices went higher than anticipated on USD weakness yesterday. The UK CPI will be released later today. SM is likely to retest 1.4250 or higher before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4080-1.4060, 1.4050, 1.4000-1.3990

GU short levels: 1.4200, 1.4225, 1.4243, 1.4265, 1.4290,1.4300, 1.4342-1.4350, 1.4365-1.5385, 1.4400-1.4410, 1.4450-1.4460, 1.4485, 1.4515, 1.4600

Posted at 2.59 am EST