DAILY REVIEW 25 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (179pips) bear inverted "hammer" closing on low vol<3weeks. The candle close suggests more downsidebut the volume suggests a lack of selling interest.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (91pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3days. The candle close suggests more downside and the volume suggests a lack of selling interest.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC Minutes release put in a nutshell simply says, "we want to raise rates but we won't tell you until we see more supporting data"..... This has led to continued USD weakness and will continue to do so.

Oanda order book:  Volumes are thin and there is no clear bias in trapped positions.

Potential demand stacks:  1.1210-1.1195, 1.1151-1.1135

Potential supply stacks: 1.1292-1.1305, 1.1387-1.1405

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

Prices opened slightly gapped down but has since closed. The whipsaw last week is highly suspicious of SM clearing the deck before a major move which is not entirely as the market awaits the FOMC interest rate decision and meeting this week. US Home sales data later today will be a catalyst. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.1300 key level or higher before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1215

EU short levels: 1.1300, 1.1320, 1.1384, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1450, 1.1494-1.1505, 1.1527-1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (320pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (139pips) bull closing near the high on average vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Trapped short volumes are more significant but there are also profitable long volumes that may come into play.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4420-1.4388, 1.4367-1.4355, 1.4344-1.4331, 1.4135-1.4308, 1.4295-1.4280, 1.4270-1.4260

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4454-1.4470, 1.4507-1.4525, 1.4605-1.4615

Last week's comment was that a bear trap was in place, the trap was sprung and prices opened gapped up by 75 pips today. Price gap traders look are selling to try closing the gap now. SM is likely to fade weak longs to the 1.4400 key level or lower before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4405-1.4400, 1.4367, 1.4335, 1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4458, 1.4470, 1.4515-1.4520, 1.4600

Posted at 1.34 am EST