DAILY REVIEW 21 April 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (589pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is a normal spread (231pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

DAY- The candle is an above average spread (97pips) bear closing  at the low on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC Minutes release put in a nutshell simply says, "we want to raise rates but we won't tell you until we see more supporting data"..... This has led to continued USD weakness and will continue to do so.

Oanda order book:  Newly trapped short volumes are significant from the 1.1280 level and higher.

Potential demand stacks:  not applicable

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1350-1.1340, 1.1317-1.1307
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.135-1.1315, 1.1382-1.1391, 1.1510-1.1605,1.1622-1.1635

US news and Euro rate decision today will be the catalyst. SM has the weak shorts trapped and currently fading them to the 1.1315 level or higher before reversing. The News releases and rate decision later may well spark a push back up to retest the 1.1380 or higher as there is no real supply level. There is no incentive for SM to go back down as there are no net stop positions lower. Only strong US data may induce a test of the low to trap more short traders. I may be wrong but yesterday's range and volume don't quite add up so be aware.

EU long levels: 1.1290-1.1280

EU short levels: 1.1384, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1450, 1.1494-1.1505, 1.1527-1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (610pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (257pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests initial seeling.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (83pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Trapped short volumes are significant.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4320-1.4305

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4350-1.4400, 1.4411-1.4445, 1.4504-1.4530

SM used the poor UK Retail Sales release to induce shorts. SM is now fading weak shorts to Asia high 1.4358 level or higher before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4350, 1.4320, 1.4307

GU short levels: 1.4420-1.4436, 1.4450-1.4460, 1.4485, 1.4515, 1.4600

Posted at 6.18 am EST