DAILY REVIEW 30 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (39pips) bull upthrust closing on low vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. From the H4, it appears that SM has been doing a lot of buying. This makes sense since if the orders had already been stacked, prices should have gone lower already. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around yesterday's NY low (1.3595) or to the 1.3585 breakout level before reversing to fade weak shorts up to the 1.3667 level.
EU long levels: 1.3595, 1.3587, 1.3561, 1.3572 - 1.3561 (Fib 61.8% confluence), 1.3476, 1.3399, 1.3294 EU short levels: 1.3630, 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730, 1.3750
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (48pips) bull small body spinning top closing on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Prices whipped up and down yesterday and look to be heading back up. SM is likely to continue fading weak shorts to yesterday's high (1.6740) or even higher to the 1.6781 level before reversing back to test the 1.6692 level or lower. A close below the 1.6655 will likely mean more downside.
GU long levels: 1.6692, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6730, 1.678, 1.6833, 1.6857, 1.6875, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 01.00 am EST
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Friday 30 May 2014
Thursday 29 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 29 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (49pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.3630 or perhaps even to the 1.3642 breakout level before reversing to continue the downward move.
EU long levels: 1.3587, 1.3561, 1.3572 - 1.3561 (Fib 61.8% confluence), 1.3476, 1.3399, 1.3294 EU short levels: 1.3630, 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730, 1.3750
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (118pips) bear closing on high vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.6730 or even higher to the 1.6781 level before reversing back to test the 1.6696 level or lower. A close below the 1.6655 will likely mean more downside.
GU long levels: 1.6696, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6730, 1.678, 1.6833, 1.6857, 1.6875, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 03.00 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (49pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.3630 or perhaps even to the 1.3642 breakout level before reversing to continue the downward move.
EU long levels: 1.3587, 1.3561, 1.3572 - 1.3561 (Fib 61.8% confluence), 1.3476, 1.3399, 1.3294 EU short levels: 1.3630, 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730, 1.3750
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (118pips) bear closing on high vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.6730 or even higher to the 1.6781 level before reversing back to test the 1.6696 level or lower. A close below the 1.6655 will likely mean more downside.
GU long levels: 1.6696, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6730, 1.678, 1.6833, 1.6857, 1.6875, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 03.00 am EST
Wednesday 28 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 28 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (56pips) bear small body spinning top on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests a smart money move fading weak shorts. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices bounced off the daily ema200SM a second time yesterday as SM removed more weak shorts. SM is likely continue fading weak shorts to the 1.3642 breakout level or higher before reversing to continue the downward move.
EU long levels: 1.3612, 1.3600, 1.3561, 1.3572 - 1.3561 (Fib 61.8% confluence), 1.3476, 1.3399, 1.3294 EU short levels: 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730, 1.3750
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (99pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 The poor UK news yesterday caused the drop of nearly 100 pips to 1.6781, just a pip below the day low of 16 May 2014, after which prices retraced abruptly to fade weak shorts. SM is likely to continue the buying pressure to fade weak shorts to 1.6833 or perhaps higher to the 1.6857 level before reversing back to test the 1.6781 level or lower to the 1.6730 level.
GU long levels: 1.6781, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6833, 1.6857, 1.6875, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 01.27 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (56pips) bear small body spinning top on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests a smart money move fading weak shorts. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices bounced off the daily ema200SM a second time yesterday as SM removed more weak shorts. SM is likely continue fading weak shorts to the 1.3642 breakout level or higher before reversing to continue the downward move.
EU long levels: 1.3612, 1.3600, 1.3561, 1.3572 - 1.3561 (Fib 61.8% confluence), 1.3476, 1.3399, 1.3294 EU short levels: 1.3642, 1.3667, 1.3687, 1.3730, 1.3750
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (99pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 The poor UK news yesterday caused the drop of nearly 100 pips to 1.6781, just a pip below the day low of 16 May 2014, after which prices retraced abruptly to fade weak shorts. SM is likely to continue the buying pressure to fade weak shorts to 1.6833 or perhaps higher to the 1.6857 level before reversing back to test the 1.6781 level or lower to the 1.6730 level.
GU long levels: 1.6781, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6833, 1.6857, 1.6875, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 01.27 am EST
Tuesday 27 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 27 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (42pips) bull spinning top on low vol<24days. The candle close and volume suggests a smart money move fading weak shorts. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3662, 1.3687, 1.3730 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices bounced off the daily ema200SM yesterday as SM removes weak shorts before continuing downwards. Prices broke the 1.3662 level in early Asia and appear to be retracing, possibly after taking out stop orders of shorts trading the 1.3642 pivot breakout level. The likely move is a continuation of the fade long so SM is likely to induce more shorts by testing the Asia low of 1.3642 (coincidence or design that it is also the previous pivot?) or lower to the 1.3634 NY session low before reversing to around 1.3687 or 1.3730
EU long levels: 1.3642, 1.3635, 1.3612, 1.3600, 1.3561, 1.3572 - 1.3561 (Fib 61.8% confluence), 1.3476, 1.3399, 1.3294 EU short levels: 1.3687, 1.3730, 1.3750
GU: The Daily candle is a very small spread (29pips) bull small body spinning top closing on low vol<24days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday I wrote "SM is likely to remove weak shorts to around the 1.6855 or even to the 1.6875 level..." Yesterday's high was 1.6852 and technically, yesterday's candle is an "inside day". Today, prices surged upward on low volume in early Asia to a current high of 1.6868 and appear to be retracing. SM is likely to continue the buying pressure to test the 1.6875 - 1.6880 level before reversing back to test the 1.6800 key level. Continuation long from the retracement move is likely around the Asia low 1.6833 level.
GU long levels: 1.6833, 1.6812, 1.6800, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6875, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.01 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (42pips) bull spinning top on low vol<24days. The candle close and volume suggests a smart money move fading weak shorts. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3662, 1.3687, 1.3730 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices bounced off the daily ema200SM yesterday as SM removes weak shorts before continuing downwards. Prices broke the 1.3662 level in early Asia and appear to be retracing, possibly after taking out stop orders of shorts trading the 1.3642 pivot breakout level. The likely move is a continuation of the fade long so SM is likely to induce more shorts by testing the Asia low of 1.3642 (coincidence or design that it is also the previous pivot?) or lower to the 1.3634 NY session low before reversing to around 1.3687 or 1.3730
EU long levels: 1.3642, 1.3635, 1.3612, 1.3600, 1.3561, 1.3572 - 1.3561 (Fib 61.8% confluence), 1.3476, 1.3399, 1.3294 EU short levels: 1.3687, 1.3730, 1.3750
GU: The Daily candle is a very small spread (29pips) bull small body spinning top closing on low vol<24days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday I wrote "SM is likely to remove weak shorts to around the 1.6855 or even to the 1.6875 level..." Yesterday's high was 1.6852 and technically, yesterday's candle is an "inside day". Today, prices surged upward on low volume in early Asia to a current high of 1.6868 and appear to be retracing. SM is likely to continue the buying pressure to test the 1.6875 - 1.6880 level before reversing back to test the 1.6800 key level. Continuation long from the retracement move is likely around the Asia low 1.6833 level.
GU long levels: 1.6833, 1.6812, 1.6800, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6875, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.01 am EST
Monday 26 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 26 May 2014
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (118pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a small spread (43pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling and continued buying at the lows. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3662, 1.3687, 1.3730 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM has closed below the 1.3642 pivot and is probably heading to test the 1.3561 level. SM opened slightly gapped down but has since closed it by a 28 pips whiplash price action that also broke last week's low. SM will likely want to remove weak shorts before continuing downwards. It is unlikely that there will be retail traders going long and that means that to attract orders, SM is likely to induce more shorts by testing the current low of 1.3612 or lower to the 1.3600 key level before reversing to around 1.3662 or 1.3687 or 1.3730 depending on how the orders stack up.
EU long levels: 1.3561, 1.3572 - 1.3561 (Fib 61.8% confluence), 1.3476, 1.3399, 1.3294 EU short levels: 1.3662, 1.3687, 1.3730, 1.3750
GU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (118pips) bull upthrust on low vol>5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a below average spread (62pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Prices opened gapped up and spiked to 1.6823 before reversing back upwards. UK news was good last week but GU got dragged down by USD strength. SM is likely to remove weak shorts to around the 1.6855 or even to the 1.6875 level before reversing back down to test 1.6800.
GU long levels: 1.6812, 1.6800, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6855, 1.6875, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 03.45 am EST
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (118pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a small spread (43pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling and continued buying at the lows. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3662, 1.3687, 1.3730 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM has closed below the 1.3642 pivot and is probably heading to test the 1.3561 level. SM opened slightly gapped down but has since closed it by a 28 pips whiplash price action that also broke last week's low. SM will likely want to remove weak shorts before continuing downwards. It is unlikely that there will be retail traders going long and that means that to attract orders, SM is likely to induce more shorts by testing the current low of 1.3612 or lower to the 1.3600 key level before reversing to around 1.3662 or 1.3687 or 1.3730 depending on how the orders stack up.
EU long levels: 1.3561, 1.3572 - 1.3561 (Fib 61.8% confluence), 1.3476, 1.3399, 1.3294 EU short levels: 1.3662, 1.3687, 1.3730, 1.3750
GU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (118pips) bull upthrust on low vol>5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a below average spread (62pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Prices opened gapped up and spiked to 1.6823 before reversing back upwards. UK news was good last week but GU got dragged down by USD strength. SM is likely to remove weak shorts to around the 1.6855 or even to the 1.6875 level before reversing back down to test 1.6800.
GU long levels: 1.6812, 1.6800, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6855, 1.6875, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 03.45 am EST
Friday 23 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 23 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (42pips) bear closing off the low on average vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests the reduced selling and continued buying at the lows. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM has tested the previous pivot at 1.3642 and looks likely to reverse from this level back to the 1.3688 or higher. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3642, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (65pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday, I wrote "likely to maintain the selling pressure to test yesterday's low at 1.6856 or lower.." Prices actually went to 1.6850 and held the level. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to the 1.6900 level.
GU long levels: 1.6850, 1.6840, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6863, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.54 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (42pips) bear closing off the low on average vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests the reduced selling and continued buying at the lows. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM has tested the previous pivot at 1.3642 and looks likely to reverse from this level back to the 1.3688 or higher. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3642, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (65pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday, I wrote "likely to maintain the selling pressure to test yesterday's low at 1.6856 or lower.." Prices actually went to 1.6850 and held the level. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to the 1.6900 level.
GU long levels: 1.6850, 1.6840, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6863, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.54 am EST
Thursday 22 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 22 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (88pips) bear reverse upthrust closing on high vol>3days. The candle and volume suggests the commencement of buying. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Just pre-FOMC, SM took orders below the 1.3642 level all the way to 1.3633 before reversing back upwards as expected. FED members appear to be preparing for the end of QE and coupled with the possible rate cut in Euro, has led to some US dollar strength. SM is likely to retest the 1.3650 level or the previous pivot at 1.3642 before reversing. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3642, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (90pips) bull closing off the high on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday I wrote "... and may push as high as 1.6861 before reversing.." Prices pushed up to 1.6919 yesterday on the UK news and subsequently retraced on the FOMC release. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to test yesterday's low at 1.6856 or lower to around 1.6840 level before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6856, 1.6840, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6863, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.26 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (88pips) bear reverse upthrust closing on high vol>3days. The candle and volume suggests the commencement of buying. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Just pre-FOMC, SM took orders below the 1.3642 level all the way to 1.3633 before reversing back upwards as expected. FED members appear to be preparing for the end of QE and coupled with the possible rate cut in Euro, has led to some US dollar strength. SM is likely to retest the 1.3650 level or the previous pivot at 1.3642 before reversing. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3642, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (90pips) bull closing off the high on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday I wrote "... and may push as high as 1.6861 before reversing.." Prices pushed up to 1.6919 yesterday on the UK news and subsequently retraced on the FOMC release. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to test yesterday's low at 1.6856 or lower to around 1.6840 level before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6856, 1.6840, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6863, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.26 am EST
Wednesday 21 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 20 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (36pips) bear closing on low vol>1day. The candle and volume suggests no buying interest. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices barely moved yesterday in spite of the French sovereign downgrade rumours and FED members' speeches. SM broke the 1.3684 level only to reverse and fade the breakout shorts. SM should continue the fade to the current trading range high 1.3733 or the breakout 1.3744 level before reversing to retest the pivot low at 1.3647. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3641, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (62pips) bull closing almost 1/2 off the high on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday I wrote "... and may push as high as 1.6861 before reversing.." SM pushed to 1.6863 and dropped 42pips and now appears to be coming back up again. With the UK news due today, SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to test the 1.6863 or even up to the 1.6905 level before reversing to retest the 1.6730 level. A break and close below 1.6730 will likely see a test of the 1.6650 level.
GU long levels: 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6863, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.15 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (36pips) bear closing on low vol>1day. The candle and volume suggests no buying interest. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices barely moved yesterday in spite of the French sovereign downgrade rumours and FED members' speeches. SM broke the 1.3684 level only to reverse and fade the breakout shorts. SM should continue the fade to the current trading range high 1.3733 or the breakout 1.3744 level before reversing to retest the pivot low at 1.3647. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3641, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (62pips) bull closing almost 1/2 off the high on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday I wrote "... and may push as high as 1.6861 before reversing.." SM pushed to 1.6863 and dropped 42pips and now appears to be coming back up again. With the UK news due today, SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to test the 1.6863 or even up to the 1.6905 level before reversing to retest the 1.6730 level. A break and close below 1.6730 will likely see a test of the 1.6650 level.
GU long levels: 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6863, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.15 am EST
Tuesday 20 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 19 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (41pips) bull pseudo upthrust closing on low vol>1day. The candle and volume suggests no buying interest. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Nothing has changed since yesterday and SM should retest the yesterday's high 1.3733 or the breakout 1.3744 level before reversing to reaccumulate around the 1.3665 level. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3641, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (39pips) bear pseudo upthrust closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 It still does not look like the re-accumulation is completed yet. Yesterday I wrote that SM would continue the buying pressure to 1.6840 or higher, they eventually settled for 1.6844 but did not continue much lower. SM is likely to retest the 1.6844 level and may push as high as 1.6861 before reversing to test the 1.6730 before reversing back up. A break and close below 1.6730 will likely see a test of the 1.6650 level.
GU long levels: 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 01.45 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (41pips) bull pseudo upthrust closing on low vol>1day. The candle and volume suggests no buying interest. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Nothing has changed since yesterday and SM should retest the yesterday's high 1.3733 or the breakout 1.3744 level before reversing to reaccumulate around the 1.3665 level. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3641, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (39pips) bear pseudo upthrust closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 It still does not look like the re-accumulation is completed yet. Yesterday I wrote that SM would continue the buying pressure to 1.6840 or higher, they eventually settled for 1.6844 but did not continue much lower. SM is likely to retest the 1.6844 level and may push as high as 1.6861 before reversing to test the 1.6730 before reversing back up. A break and close below 1.6730 will likely see a test of the 1.6650 level.
GU long levels: 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 01.45 am EST
Monday 19 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 19 May 2014
EU: Weekly- the candle is a below average spread (126pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol>4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a small spread (41pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<3days. The candle and volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Last Friday, I wrote "SM is likely to test the 1.3730 level before reversing to the 1.3700 or 1.3688 level before reversing upwards. It is very unlikely that SM will be going lower as there would not have been many retail traders long from the lows." Although this was true almost to the pip both up and down, the upside continuation did not happen which suggests that the down move may not be done yet. In this case, SM should move back to the 1.3730 or retest the breakout 1.3744 level or even as high as the 1.3800 level before reversing to reaccumulate around the 1.3665 level. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3641, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: Weekly- the candle is an average spread (171pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests buying however because of the price level, we should expect downside before further upward moves. The Daily candle is a small spread (57pips) bull closing almost 1/2 off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 It still does not look like the re-accumulation is completed yet. SM is likely to continue buying pressure to induce breakout longs at 1.6840 and may push as high as 1.6861 before reversing to test the 1.6730 before reversing back up. A break and close below 1.6730 will likely see a test of the 1.6650 level.
GU long levels: 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.34 am EST
EU: Weekly- the candle is a below average spread (126pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol>4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a small spread (41pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<3days. The candle and volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Last Friday, I wrote "SM is likely to test the 1.3730 level before reversing to the 1.3700 or 1.3688 level before reversing upwards. It is very unlikely that SM will be going lower as there would not have been many retail traders long from the lows." Although this was true almost to the pip both up and down, the upside continuation did not happen which suggests that the down move may not be done yet. In this case, SM should move back to the 1.3730 or retest the breakout 1.3744 level or even as high as the 1.3800 level before reversing to reaccumulate around the 1.3665 level. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3641, 1.3561 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: Weekly- the candle is an average spread (171pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests buying however because of the price level, we should expect downside before further upward moves. The Daily candle is a small spread (57pips) bull closing almost 1/2 off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 It still does not look like the re-accumulation is completed yet. SM is likely to continue buying pressure to induce breakout longs at 1.6840 and may push as high as 1.6861 before reversing to test the 1.6730 before reversing back up. A break and close below 1.6730 will likely see a test of the 1.6650 level.
GU long levels: 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.34 am EST
Friday 16 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 16 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (82pips) bear reverse upthrust closing on very high vol>4days. The candle and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term- 1.700 key level, 1.3688 (Fib61.8% confluence) Daily 1.3572 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib50% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM pushed prices all the way to the 1.3647 level just missing the pivot at 1.3642 on news before reversing strongly. It must be said that even the good Philly data did little to reverse prices suggesting that this is no ordinary move. Although there might be some selling pressure still on the EU with market talk of a bear squeeze, the market structure tells us otherwise and we should expect upside. SM is likely to test the 1.3730 level before reversing to the 1.3700 or 1.3688 level before reversing upwards. It is very unlikely that SM will be going lower as there would not have been many retail traders long from the lows.
EU long levels: 1.3700, 1.3688, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (74pips) bull closing off the high on high vol>4days. The candle and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6761, 1.6805, 1.6820, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Prices reacted to the US dollar strength plunging to a previous session low 1.6730 and then reversing back to 1.6905 on weakness yesterday. This pair does not look like the re-accumulation is completed yet. SM is likely to continue buying pressure to retest the 1.6905 high yesterday before reversing to fade weak shorts to around 1.6775 or even to yesterday’s low at 1.6752 before reversing back up with several possible turning points along the way..
GU long levels: 1.6775, 1.6752, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6761, 1.6805, 1.6820, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.42 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (82pips) bear reverse upthrust closing on very high vol>4days. The candle and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term- 1.700 key level, 1.3688 (Fib61.8% confluence) Daily 1.3572 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib50% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM pushed prices all the way to the 1.3647 level just missing the pivot at 1.3642 on news before reversing strongly. It must be said that even the good Philly data did little to reverse prices suggesting that this is no ordinary move. Although there might be some selling pressure still on the EU with market talk of a bear squeeze, the market structure tells us otherwise and we should expect upside. SM is likely to test the 1.3730 level before reversing to the 1.3700 or 1.3688 level before reversing upwards. It is very unlikely that SM will be going lower as there would not have been many retail traders long from the lows.
EU long levels: 1.3700, 1.3688, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (74pips) bull closing off the high on high vol>4days. The candle and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6761, 1.6805, 1.6820, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Prices reacted to the US dollar strength plunging to a previous session low 1.6730 and then reversing back to 1.6905 on weakness yesterday. This pair does not look like the re-accumulation is completed yet. SM is likely to continue buying pressure to retest the 1.6905 high yesterday before reversing to fade weak shorts to around 1.6775 or even to yesterday’s low at 1.6752 before reversing back up with several possible turning points along the way..
GU long levels: 1.6775, 1.6752, 1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6761, 1.6805, 1.6820, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.42 am EST
Thursday 15 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 15 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a very small spread (32pips) bull “pseudo upthrust” closing on low vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term- 1.3688 (Fib61.8% confluence) Daily 1.3572 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib50% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. There has been no change since yesterday and even with the good US PPI news, prices barely moved and failed to break below 1.3701 Prices have been compressed in this very tight range for the past 2 days now. Based on order flow, it would appear that SM are likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts to test yesterday’s high at 1.3730 before reversing to create selling pressure to the pivot low at 1.3688 or lower to induce breakout traders short before reversing back to the 1.3800 level.
EU long levels: 1.3688, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641, 1.3574, 1.3560 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (121pips) bear closing off the low on high vol>3days. The candle and volume suggests more downside but buying has commenced. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6761, 1.6805, 1.6820, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Prices tanked yesterday taking out the previous pivot at 1.6761 on the release of UK employment data and BOE Governor Carney’s speech. SM is likely to continue buying pressure to fade weak shorts to around 1.6786 or higher and reverse to test the previous pivot 1.6761 or yesterday’s low at 1.6752 before reversing back up.
GU long levels: 1.6760, 1.6752, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6761, 1.6805, 1.6820, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.14 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a very small spread (32pips) bull “pseudo upthrust” closing on low vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term- 1.3688 (Fib61.8% confluence) Daily 1.3572 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib50% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. There has been no change since yesterday and even with the good US PPI news, prices barely moved and failed to break below 1.3701 Prices have been compressed in this very tight range for the past 2 days now. Based on order flow, it would appear that SM are likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts to test yesterday’s high at 1.3730 before reversing to create selling pressure to the pivot low at 1.3688 or lower to induce breakout traders short before reversing back to the 1.3800 level.
EU long levels: 1.3688, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641, 1.3574, 1.3560 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (121pips) bear closing off the low on high vol>3days. The candle and volume suggests more downside but buying has commenced. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6761, 1.6805, 1.6820, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 Prices tanked yesterday taking out the previous pivot at 1.6761 on the release of UK employment data and BOE Governor Carney’s speech. SM is likely to continue buying pressure to fade weak shorts to around 1.6786 or higher and reverse to test the previous pivot 1.6761 or yesterday’s low at 1.6752 before reversing back up.
GU long levels: 1.6760, 1.6752, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6761, 1.6805, 1.6820, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.14 am EST
Wednesday 14 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 14 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (82pips) bear closing near the low on high vol>2days. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily 1.3696 – 1.3671 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.3572 (Fib78.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices finally closed the gap at 1.3695 from 6 April 2014 and have reversed from there. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to yesterday’s NY session high or higher to fade weak shorts before reversing to test yesterday’s low or lower.
EU long levels: 1.3688, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641, 1.3574, 1.3560 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3772, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (64pips) bear closing just off the low on high vol>2days. The candle and volume suggests more downside followed by upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6865, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday, I wrote “SM is likely to induce shorts at yesterday’s low or lower at around 1.6818 before reversing…” SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure in fading weak shorts perhaps to the 1.6865 previous Asia breakout level or even to the 1.6902 level before reversing to test yesterday’s low or lower.
GU long levels: 1.6818, 1.6800, 1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6865, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.15 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (82pips) bear closing near the low on high vol>2days. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily 1.3696 – 1.3671 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.3572 (Fib78.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices finally closed the gap at 1.3695 from 6 April 2014 and have reversed from there. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to yesterday’s NY session high or higher to fade weak shorts before reversing to test yesterday’s low or lower.
EU long levels: 1.3688, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641, 1.3574, 1.3560 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3772, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (64pips) bear closing just off the low on high vol>2days. The candle and volume suggests more downside followed by upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6865, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 Yesterday, I wrote “SM is likely to induce shorts at yesterday’s low or lower at around 1.6818 before reversing…” SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure in fading weak shorts perhaps to the 1.6865 previous Asia breakout level or even to the 1.6902 level before reversing to test yesterday’s low or lower.
GU long levels: 1.6818, 1.6800, 1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6865, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.15 am EST
Tuesday 13 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a very small spread (26pips) bull “pseudo upthrust” closing on low vol<4days. The candle and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term- 1.3735 (Fib50% confluence), Daily 1.3696 – 1.3671 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.3572 (Fib78.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. There has been no change since and SM are likely to create selling pressure to yesterday’s or Friday’s lows to induce shorts before reversing to fade them and continue upwards to remove weak shorts to the 1.3800 key level or higher before reversing.
EU long levels: 1.3744, 1.3690, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641, 1.3574, 1.3560 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a smal spread (60pips) bull “pseudo upthrust” closing on low vol<4days. The candle and volume suggests more downside followed by upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 SM stopped just short of the 1.6905 level yesterday at 1.6902 before reversing. SM is likely to induce shorts at yesterday’s low or lower at around 1.6818 before reversing to fade weak shorts back to around the 1.6902 or even to around the 1.6918 level before reversing.
GU long levels: 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.40 am EST
EU long levels: 1.3744, 1.3690, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641, 1.3574, 1.3560 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: The Daily candle is a smal spread (60pips) bull “pseudo upthrust” closing on low vol<4days. The candle and volume suggests more downside followed by upside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 SM stopped just short of the 1.6905 level yesterday at 1.6902 before reversing. SM is likely to induce shorts at yesterday’s low or lower at around 1.6818 before reversing to fade weak shorts back to around the 1.6902 or even to around the 1.6918 level before reversing.
GU long levels: 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.40 am EST
Monday 12 May 2014
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DAILY REVIEW 12 May 2014
EU: Weekly- the candle is a normal spread (248pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (99pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term- 1.3735 (Fib50% confluence), Daily 1.3696 – 1.3671 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.3572 (Fib78.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. With the hangover from Draghi’s speech still resonating, prices opened with a slight gap down that has since been closed. SM are likely to maintain buying pressure to remove weak shorts to the 1.3800 key level or higher before reversing to test Friday’s lows and lower.
EU long levels: 1.3690, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641, 1.3574, 1.3560 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: Weekly- the candle is a below average (164pips) bear upthrust closing off the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (104pips) bear closing off the low on average vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around the 1.6900 key level or higher before reversing to test the Friday’s low or lower. A close below the 1.6960 level will likely see more downside.
GU long levels: 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 01.27 am EST
EU: Weekly- the candle is a normal spread (248pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (99pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term- 1.3735 (Fib50% confluence), Daily 1.3696 – 1.3671 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.3572 (Fib78.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. With the hangover from Draghi’s speech still resonating, prices opened with a slight gap down that has since been closed. SM are likely to maintain buying pressure to remove weak shorts to the 1.3800 key level or higher before reversing to test Friday’s lows and lower.
EU long levels: 1.3690, 1.3672, 1.3660, 1.3641, 1.3574, 1.3560 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400
GU: Weekly- the candle is a below average (164pips) bear upthrust closing off the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (104pips) bear closing off the low on average vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply: short-term 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around the 1.6900 key level or higher before reversing to test the Friday’s low or lower. A close below the 1.6960 level will likely see more downside.
GU long levels: 1.6830, 1.6810, 1.6800,1.6775, 1.6760, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 01.27 am EST
Thursday 8 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 08 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (28pips) bull closing at the low on high vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3911 (Fib23.6% confluence), 1.3895 (Fib38.2% confluence), 1.3860 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.3832, 1.3800 Supply: short-term: 1.3950, 1.3966, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM is likely to test the 1.3937 level or the 1.3952 pivot before reversing to Asia low 1.3905 level to remove weak longs before reversing to test the 1.3966 pivot.
EU long levels: 1.3900, 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels: 1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (34pips) bear closing at the low on average vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: short-term 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8%), 1.6810, 1.6800 SM is likely to test the 1.6985 or previous pivot 1.6995 before reversing. A close above the 1.7000 key level will likely see a test of the 1.7042 pivot.
GU long levels: 1.6942, 1.6929, 1.6918, 1.6980, 1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6919, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 04.44 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (28pips) bull closing at the low on high vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3911 (Fib23.6% confluence), 1.3895 (Fib38.2% confluence), 1.3860 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.3832, 1.3800 Supply: short-term: 1.3950, 1.3966, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM is likely to test the 1.3937 level or the 1.3952 pivot before reversing to Asia low 1.3905 level to remove weak longs before reversing to test the 1.3966 pivot.
EU long levels: 1.3900, 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels: 1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (34pips) bear closing at the low on average vol<1day. The candle and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: short-term 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8%), 1.6810, 1.6800 SM is likely to test the 1.6985 or previous pivot 1.6995 before reversing. A close above the 1.7000 key level will likely see a test of the 1.7042 pivot.
GU long levels: 1.6942, 1.6929, 1.6918, 1.6980, 1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6919, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 04.44 am EST
Wednesday 7 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 07 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (79pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>2days. The candle and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3911 (Fib23.6% confluence), 1.3895 (Fib38.2% confluence), 1.3860 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.3832, 1.3800 Supply: short-term: 1.3950, 1.3966, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM is likely to test the 1.3935 level before reversing to Asia low or lower to the 1.3905 level to remove weak longs before reversing to test the 1.3966 pivot.
EU long levels: 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels: 1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (130pips) bull closing just off the high on high vol>3days. The candle and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: short-term 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8%), 1.6810, 1.6800 SM is likely to test the 1.6985 or the 1.6995 before reversing to test the 1.6918 breakout level. A close above the 1.7000 key level will likely see a test of the 1.7042 pivot.
GU long levels: 1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6919, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.23 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (79pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>2days. The candle and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3911 (Fib23.6% confluence), 1.3895 (Fib38.2% confluence), 1.3860 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.3832, 1.3800 Supply: short-term: 1.3950, 1.3966, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM is likely to test the 1.3935 level before reversing to Asia low or lower to the 1.3905 level to remove weak longs before reversing to test the 1.3966 pivot.
EU long levels: 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels: 1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (130pips) bull closing just off the high on high vol>3days. The candle and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: short-term 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8%), 1.6810, 1.6800 SM is likely to test the 1.6985 or the 1.6995 before reversing to test the 1.6918 breakout level. A close above the 1.7000 key level will likely see a test of the 1.7042 pivot.
GU long levels: 1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6919, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.23 am EST
Monday 5 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 05 May 2014
EU: Monthly- the candle is a small spread (234pips) bull “hammer” closing just off the high on vol<35months. Weekly- the candle is a small spread (118pips) bull “hammer” closing just off the high on low vol>2weeks. The Daily candle is a below average spread (69pips) dragonfly doji closing on high vol>1day. The candle and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3843 (Fib38.2% confluence) , 1.3832, 1.3800 (Fib 50% confluence) Supply: short-term Background: NFP last Friday resulted in a very quick movement down and back up as SM took out all the weak short traders quite possibly not just because of NFP but also because of month end-flows delayed from Labour Day. Prices opened gapped up by about 16pips today with the gap already closed in early Asia trading. SM is likely to induce longs at Asia high or higher to the 1.3905 pivot before reversing. A break and close below 1.3778 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels: 1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050
GU: Monthly- the candle is a below average spread (360pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<15months. The candle close suggests more upside but the volume suggests SM markup. Weekly- the candle is a below average spread (141pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol>2weeks with a continuing bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests we may see a reversal soon. The Daily candle is a small spread (73pips) bear reverse upthrust on high vol>1day. The candle close and volume in the current context suggests the commencement of selling. Levels of interest: short-term 1.6900 key level, Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8%), 1.6810, 1.6800 Background: NFP last Friday resulted in SM doing exactly the same with month-end flows. Price opened with a small gap up (11pips) and has not closed the gap yet. SM is likely to induce longs by retesting the 1.6919 pivot before reversing for a potential reversal. Only a close below 1.6761 would indicate a reversal back down.
GU long levels: 1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6919, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.47 am EST
EU: Monthly- the candle is a small spread (234pips) bull “hammer” closing just off the high on vol<35months. Weekly- the candle is a small spread (118pips) bull “hammer” closing just off the high on low vol>2weeks. The Daily candle is a below average spread (69pips) dragonfly doji closing on high vol>1day. The candle and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3843 (Fib38.2% confluence) , 1.3832, 1.3800 (Fib 50% confluence) Supply: short-term Background: NFP last Friday resulted in a very quick movement down and back up as SM took out all the weak short traders quite possibly not just because of NFP but also because of month end-flows delayed from Labour Day. Prices opened gapped up by about 16pips today with the gap already closed in early Asia trading. SM is likely to induce longs at Asia high or higher to the 1.3905 pivot before reversing. A break and close below 1.3778 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels: 1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050
GU: Monthly- the candle is a below average spread (360pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<15months. The candle close suggests more upside but the volume suggests SM markup. Weekly- the candle is a below average spread (141pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol>2weeks with a continuing bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests we may see a reversal soon. The Daily candle is a small spread (73pips) bear reverse upthrust on high vol>1day. The candle close and volume in the current context suggests the commencement of selling. Levels of interest: short-term 1.6900 key level, Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8%), 1.6810, 1.6800 Background: NFP last Friday resulted in SM doing exactly the same with month-end flows. Price opened with a small gap up (11pips) and has not closed the gap yet. SM is likely to induce longs by retesting the 1.6919 pivot before reversing for a potential reversal. Only a close below 1.6761 would indicate a reversal back down.
GU long levels: 1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6919, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 02.47 am EST
Friday 2 May 2014
DAILY REVIEW 02 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (26pips) bull “pseudo upthrust” closing on low vol<7days. The candle and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3843 (Fib38.2% confluence) , 1.3832, 1.3800 (Fib 50% confluence) Supply: short-term As expected, there was no volume in the market yesterday with Labour Day being a public holiday in many countries. Prior to the FOMC statement, SM used “low impact” Italian economic data to push past the previous pivot at 1.3778 to complete the Reaccumulation and then marked up strongly prior to the FOMC statement. Following the FOMC statement, prices have closed the gap at 1.3884 before dropping off. SM is likely to create selling pressure to the 1.3843 level or lower before reversing to retest the 1.3966 level. A break and close below 1.3778 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels: 1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (49pips) bull closing ½ off the high on low vol<7days. The candle close and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8% and H1 ema200 confluence), 1.6810, 1.6800 Background: Good UK news coupled with the FOMC statement have given a bullish sentiment to GBP. SM is likely to create buying pressure at the 1.6900 level (previous pivot) before reversing to fade weak longs back and create selling pressure to around the 1.6842 level or lower to reaccumulate before reversing back up. Only a close below 1.6761 would indicate a reversal back down.
GU long levels: 1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6900, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.55 am EST
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (26pips) bull “pseudo upthrust” closing on low vol<7days. The candle and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3843 (Fib38.2% confluence) , 1.3832, 1.3800 (Fib 50% confluence) Supply: short-term As expected, there was no volume in the market yesterday with Labour Day being a public holiday in many countries. Prior to the FOMC statement, SM used “low impact” Italian economic data to push past the previous pivot at 1.3778 to complete the Reaccumulation and then marked up strongly prior to the FOMC statement. Following the FOMC statement, prices have closed the gap at 1.3884 before dropping off. SM is likely to create selling pressure to the 1.3843 level or lower before reversing to retest the 1.3966 level. A break and close below 1.3778 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels: 1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (49pips) bull closing ½ off the high on low vol<7days. The candle close and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand: short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8% and H1 ema200 confluence), 1.6810, 1.6800 Background: Good UK news coupled with the FOMC statement have given a bullish sentiment to GBP. SM is likely to create buying pressure at the 1.6900 level (previous pivot) before reversing to fade weak longs back and create selling pressure to around the 1.6842 level or lower to reaccumulate before reversing back up. Only a close below 1.6761 would indicate a reversal back down.
GU long levels: 1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6900, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042
Posted at 00.55 am EST
Thursday 1 May 2014
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