DAILY REVIEW 02 May 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (26pips) bull “pseudo upthrust” closing on low vol<7days. The candle and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3843 (Fib38.2% confluence) , 1.3832, 1.3800 (Fib 50% confluence) Supply: short-term  As expected, there was no volume in the market yesterday with Labour Day being a public holiday in many countries. Prior to the FOMC statement, SM used “low impact” Italian economic data to push past the previous pivot at 1.3778 to complete the Reaccumulation and then marked up strongly prior to the FOMC statement. Following the FOMC statement, prices have closed the gap at 1.3884 before dropping off. SM is likely to create selling pressure to the 1.3843 level or lower before reversing to retest the 1.3966 level.  A break and close below 1.3778 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3843, 1.3832, 1.3815, 1.3800, 1.3785, 1.3690 EU short levels:  1.3888, 1.3905, 1.3966, 1.400, 1.4050

GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (49pips) bull closing ½ off the high on low vol<7days. The candle close and volume suggests a bear trap. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term- 1.6859 (Fib 38.2% confluence), 1.6842 (Fib 50% confluence), 1.6825 (Fib 61.8% and H1 ema200 confluence), 1.6810, 1.6800 Background: Good UK news coupled with the FOMC statement have given a bullish sentiment to GBP. SM is likely to create buying pressure at the 1.6900 level (previous pivot) before reversing to fade weak longs back and create selling pressure to around the 1.6842 level or lower to reaccumulate before reversing back up. Only a close below 1.6761 would indicate a reversal back down.  
GU long levels:  1.6859, 1.6842, 1.6825, 1.6810, 1.6800 GU short levels: 1.6900, 1.7000, 1.7030, 1.7042

Posted at 00.55 am EST