DAILY REVIEW 19 May 2014
EU: Weekly- the candle is a below average spread (126pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol>4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a small spread (41pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<3days. The candle and volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Demand: 1.3650 – 1.3642 (Fib61.8% confluence) 1.3576 – 1.3561 (Fib78.6% confluence) 1.3551 (H4 pivot) 1.3525 – 1.3512 (Fib88.6% confluence) Supply: short-term: 1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3834 -1.3850, 1.3975, 1.4000 key level Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Last Friday, I wrote "SM is likely to test the 1.3730 level before reversing to the 1.3700 or 1.3688 level before reversing upwards. It is very unlikely that SM will be going lower as there would not have been many retail traders long from the lows." Although this was true almost to the pip both up and down, the upside continuation did not happen which suggests that the down move may not be done yet. In this case, SM should move back to the 1.3730 or retest the breakout 1.3744 level or even as high as the 1.3800 level before reversing to reaccumulate around the 1.3665 level. A close below the 1.3642 pivot will probably see the 1.3561 level tested.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3641, 1.3561 EU short levels:  1.3730, 1.3750, 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3833, 1.3975, 1.400

GU: Weekly- the candle is an average spread (171pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests buying however because of the price level, we should expect downside before further upward moves. The Daily candle is a small spread (57pips) bull closing almost 1/2 off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Supply:  short-term 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995 Weekly/Daily supply level: 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term- 1.6760, 1.6720 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6690 (confluence Fib88.6%), 1.6670, 1.6654 It still does not look like the re-accumulation is completed yet. SM is likely to continue buying pressure to induce breakout longs at 1.6840 and may push as high as 1.6861 before reversing to test the 1.6730 before reversing back up. A break and close below 1.6730 will likely see a test of the 1.6650 level.  
GU long levels:  1.6730, 1.6670, 1.6654 GU short levels: 1.6850, 1.6861, 1.6905, 1.6918, 1.6995, 1.7030, 1.7042

Posted at 00.34 am EST