DAILY REVIEW 31 December 2014

It is New Year's Eve and just as yesterday, this is a holiday market devoid of significant news and we are heading into the month-end and year-end where we can expect institutions to dress-up and close their books as SM goes on an order-hunt to complete their business for the year.

I'm not doing a review today for obvious reasons and am still holding a long AudNzd position taken yesterday from 1.0430 which is now a "free" trade at +35pips. I'm not decided whether to close and take profit tonight or to just let it carry....

Anyway, it has been a very interesting year, one for which I am thankful to the various people who had requested me to teach them how to trade, subsequently giving birth to the VSAnalytiks Forex Course. 

Thanks also to my regular readers and visitors to this blog, for your kind words of encouragement and honest feedback. For those folk that read the blog and have not yet achieved consistent profits, I would suggest that seriously considering investing in yourself by getting proper training and mentoring to get out of that vicious cycle of false hope and despair. You are most welcome to join me, of course!

Most of all, I'm thankful to my Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ for blessing me with ability to trade well and impart that critical knowledge for my students to succeed in consistently good profits.

Finally, I wish all my readers a very 

HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR 2015!  

Yours truly,

Trek Trader

Posted 7.25 am EST 31 Dec 2014

DAILY REVIEW 30 December 2014

Note: It remains a holiday market devoid of significant news and heading into month-end and year-end tomorrow where we can expect institutions to dress-up and close their books. Flows can be expected to be either oscillatory or sudden huge ranges as SM goes on an order-hunt to complete their business for the year.

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a near-normal spread (78pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2300, 1.2356, 1.2375, 1.2425, 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600 Background: This is the holiday season with very thin liquidity. The fx order book shows order stacks at 1.2300-10, 1.2250, 1.2230, 1.2120-1.2130, 1.2100 Prices have made new lows today at 1.2131 testing the 1.2133 pivot and SM is likely continue selling pressure to the 1.2120 level or lower before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2275, 1.2300, 1.2370, 1.2400, 1.2440, 1.2500


GU Analysis:

GU: Day-The candle is a below average spread (78pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5761, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: This is the holiday season with very thin liquidity. Fx order book shows order stacks at 1.5800, 1.5750, 1.5700, 1.5650, 1.5600, 1.5540-50, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5400 Prices continue falling from yesterday to 1.5502 today. SM is likely to push back to around the 1.5540-50  before reversing to continue the down trend. 

GU long levels: 1.5426, 1.5400 

GU short levels: 1.5550, 1.5620, 1.5655, 1.5700, 1.5785, 1.5800, 1.5825, 1.5860

Posted at 11.40 pm EST 29 Dec 2014

DAILY REVIEW 29 December 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Weekly- The candle is a below average spread (107pips) bear closing near the low on very low vol<21weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Daily- The candle is a small spread (42pips) bear closing near the low on very low vol<82days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2300, 1.2356, 1.2375, 1.2425, 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600 Background: This is the holiday season with very thin liquidity. The fx order book shows order stacks at 1.2300-10, 1.2140-1.2150 Price action has been pretty anemic in a thin market devoid of significant news. SM is likely continue to fade weak shorts to the 1.2270 level or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.2152, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2275, 1.2300, 1.2370, 1.2400, 1.2440, 1.2500


GU Analysis:

GU: Weekly- The candle is a below average spread (179pips) bear closing almost 1/2 off the low on low vol<15weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Day-The candle is a very small spread (29pips) bull "dragon fly doji" closing on very low vol<82pips. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5761, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: This is the holiday season with very thin liquidity. Fx order book shows order stacks at 1.5800, 1.5750, 1.5700, 1.5650, 1.5600, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5400 Prices pushed higher to 1.5585 before retracing. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to around the 1.5620 level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.5426, 1.5400 

GU short levels: 1.5620, 1.5655, 1.5700, 1.5785, 1.5800, 1.5825, 1.5860

Posted at 7.51 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 23 December 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a small spread (55pips) bear "tombstone" closing on low vol<9days. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of selling interest but more downside can be expected. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2300, 1.2356, 1.2375, 1.2425, 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600 Background: Price continues lower post-FOMC as we approach the Christmas holidays. The fx order book shows order stacks at 1.2300-10, 1.2275-1.2285, 1.2210-20, 1.2190-1.2200 Prices pushed to a new low of 1.2215 yesterday before stalling. SM is likely induce shorts at the 1.2215 level or lower before fading weak shorts. 

EU long levels: 1.2200, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2275, 1.2300, 1.2370, 1.2400, 1.2440, 1.2500


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (92pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<9days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but with reduced selling pressure. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5761, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: Price has still not made a lower low post FOMC. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. Price broke and closed above the 1.5762 pivot yesterday before retracing. Fx order book shows order stacks at 1.5800, 1.5780, 1.5750-60, 1.5730-40, 1.5700-1.5710, 1.5670-80, 1.5600, 1.5565, 1.5530-40, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5400 Prices pushed past yesterday's low of 1.5572 to 1.5571 early in Asia. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around the 1.5560 level or lower and then reverse to fade upward to 1.5690 or higher before reversing to test the 1.5540 pivot.  A break below this will see the 1.5500 and the 1.5426 pivot next in line. 

GU long levels: 1.5560, 1.5540, 1.5500, 1.5426, 1.5400 

GU short levels: 1.5700, 1.5785, 1.5800, 1.5825, 1.5860

Posted at 2.31 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 22 December 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Weekly- The candle is an above average (247pips) bear closing just off the low on very high vol>6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Daily- The candle is a normal spread (87pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<8days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2300, 1.2356, 1.2375, 1.2425, 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600 Background: Price continued to dive post-FOMC. The fx order book shows order stacks at 1.2300-10, 1.2210-20, 1.2190-1.2200 Prices opened slightly gapped down. SM is likely to fade the weak shorts to the 1.2300 level or higher before continuing the downtrend. A close below 1.2240 will likely see a push to the 1.2041 pivot.

EU long levels: 1.2200, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2300, 1.2370, 1.2400, 1.2440, 1.2500


GU Analysis:

GU: Weekly- The candle is an above average spread (246pips) bear spinning top closing on very high vol>4weeks (real Futures contracts) The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Day- The candle is a below average spread (77pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5761, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: Price has still not made a lower low post FOMC. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. Price broke and closed above the 1.5762 pivot yesterday before retracing. Fx order book shows order stacks at 1.5800, 1.5780, 1.5750-60, 1.5730-40, 1.5700-1.5710, 1.5670-80, 1.5600, 1.5550-70, 1.5520, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5400 The fading of weak shorts continues. SM is likely to create selling pressure to around the 1.5600 level and then reverse to continue the fade upward to 1.5690 or higher before reversing to test the 1.5540 pivot.  A break below this will see the 1.5500 and the 1.5426 pivot next in line. 

GU long levels: 1.5600, 1.5540, 1.5500, 1.5426, 1.5400 

GU short levels: 1.5700, 1.5785, 1.5800, 1.5825, 1.5860

Posted at 11.50 pm EST 21 Dec 2015

DAILY REVIEW 19 December 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (87pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2257, 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600 Background: After the FOMC statement, price has made a new low today. The fx order book shows order stacks at 1.2300-10, 1.2235-55, 1.2190-1.2200 SM is likely to keep the selling pressure to test the 1.2247 pivot or lower before reversing to fade the weak shorts. A close below 1.2240 will likely see a push to the 1.2041 pivot.

EU long levels: 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2370, 1.2400, 1.2440, 1.2500


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a large spread (128pips) bull closing off the high on high vol<3 days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5761, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: After the FOMC release, price has not made a lower low. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. Price broke and closed above the 1.5762 pivot yesterday before retracing. Fx order book shows order stacks at 1.5780, 1.5750, 1.5700, 1.5690, 1.5530-40, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5400 The fading of weak shorts is continuing and SM is likely to fade to 1.5690 or higher before reversing to test the 1.5540 pivot.  A break below this will see the 1.5500 and the 1.5426 pivot next in line. 

GU long levels: 1.5540, 1.5500, 1.5426, 1.5400 

GU short levels: 1.5700, 1.5785, 1.5800, 1.5825, 1.5860

Posted at 06.06 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 18 December 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a very large spread (195pips) bear closing just off the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2257, 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600 Background: The fundamentals of the Euro is weak. This, coupled with the FOMC statement yesterday where the new term "patience" regading rate increases plus the dropping of the term "considerable time" resulted in a surge in the greenback and US equities. As always, after a huge move on news, there will be a large number of traders trapped and also an almost equal number in profit. The question now is whether or not this move is the real continuation of the downtrend. The fx order book shows order stacks at 1.2300-10, 1.2235-55, 1.2190-1.2200 SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around 1.2370 or higher before reversing to test the 1.2246 pivot. A close below 1.2240 will likely see a push to the 1.2041 pivot.

EU long levels: 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2370, 1.2400, 1.2440, 1.2500


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a very large spread (212pips) bear closing off the low on ultrahigh vol>43 days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside and also possible buying activity commencement. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5761, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: Gbp's "corrective" upward retracement was brought to an abrupt halt and reversed by the FOMC release. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. Price broke and closed above the 1.5762 pivot yesterday before retracing. Fx order book shows order stacks at 1.5780, 1.5750, 1.5700, 1.5530-40, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5400 SM is likely to fade the weak shorts to 1.5650 or higher before reversing to test the 1.5540 pivot. BOE Governor Carney speaking later today will likely be the catalyst for the SM move. A break below this will see the 1.5500 and the 1.5426 pivot next in line. Note that the huge volume activity seen without the accompanying outcome may also be possibly the accumulation of longs by the SM and the pivot 1.5526 may well be a reversal level.

GU long levels: 1.5546, 1.5500, 1.5426, 1.5400 

GU short levels: 1.5641, 1.5700, 1.5785, 1.5800, 1.5825, 1.5860

Posted at 03.18 am EST