DAILY REVIEW 4 December 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (89pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2277, 1.2257, 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2733) Background: Euro's fundamentals remain weak and differences still remain between the ECB and Germany over potential implementation of QE for the Euro, of which possibly France would be a major beneficiary. The major event this week is the ECB interest rate decision today. The longer term bias remains downward. SM has gone very close but not made a lower low yet from yesterday. Possible stops for weak longs at 1.22280-90 and short term supply at 1.2350. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the 1.2300 level and possibly to around the 1.2380 to remove weak longs and then reverse to remove weak shorts to around 1.2350 at the higher levels prior to the ECB rate decision where they will likely wrong foot the herd before the continuation down.

EU long levels: 1.2277, 1.2257, 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2357, 


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (99pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low volu>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside but possible selling commencement. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: There is essentially no change to the fundamentals despite continued strong PMI data this week. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The order book shows a significant bunch of volume trapped short. The possible stops are at 1.5830, 1.5850, 1.5875. Price remains in Monday's range (1.5584 -1.5762) SM is likely to retest yesterday's high 1.5718 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. The technical trend remains down but the current SM cycle is long.

GU long levels: 1.5674, 1.5665, 1.5650, 1.5581, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5720, 1.5735-40, 1.5761, 1.5775, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 02.23 am EST