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Monday 23 December 2013
Dear friends, this is Christmas week and with most traders already gone for the Christmas holidays, professionals will say that there is no use trying to trade the market until after the New Year. I do agree with them and would take this opportunity to wish everyone a Blessed Christmas and a Great New Year ahead.
Friday 20 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 20 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (44pips) bear closing just off the low on average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 As expected, prices have started to compress as price pushed lower. Levels of interest: 1.3600 key level – this is the previous daily breakout level and must hold in order for price to continue upward. The Asian range is 1.3648 – 1.3666 currently. SM will likely maintain selling pressure to test the current low before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3758, 1.3775, 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bear hammer closing on vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Breakout level 1.6480 The Asian range is 1.6329 – 1.6371 currently. Price is still well within the FOMC whipsaw range. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to continue fading weak longs before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6270, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6420, 1.6455, 1.6480
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (44pips) bear closing just off the low on average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 As expected, prices have started to compress as price pushed lower. Levels of interest: 1.3600 key level – this is the previous daily breakout level and must hold in order for price to continue upward. The Asian range is 1.3648 – 1.3666 currently. SM will likely maintain selling pressure to test the current low before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3758, 1.3775, 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bear hammer closing on vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Breakout level 1.6480 The Asian range is 1.6329 – 1.6371 currently. Price is still well within the FOMC whipsaw range. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to continue fading weak longs before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6270, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6420, 1.6455, 1.6480
Thursday 19 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 19 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (137pips) bear closing just off the low on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 A quick review of the FOMC shows market reaction as expected and the whipsaw down and back up was also expected owing to the relatively small taper. SM had in the first hour dived down to the 1.3700 key level and then reversed up to 1.3810 effectively wiping all weak longs/shorts off the board. It seemed that the stage was set for more up. However, the question and answer with Ben Bernanke was the game changer as Ben said that the FED could taper at every meeting. This effectively means that in theory, the FED’s balance sheet will be “healthier” with each meeting, this is a fundamental change and the market stalled and tanked shortly after. Levels of interest: 1.3600 key level – this is the previous daily breakout level and must hold in order for price to continue upward. We may see price compress as it reaches this level if it breaks and closes below the 1.3650 level. The Asian range is 1.3648 – 1.3693 currently. SM will likely create buying pressure to fade the weak shorts before reversing downwards to test the low.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3758, 1.3775, 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a very large spread (222pips) bull closing slightly more than 1/3 off the top on high vol>8days. The candle close suggests that there is selling and the volume suggests buying. Levels of interest: yesterday-tested breakout level 1.6480 Prices actually took stops above the previous swing high making a new high in 1.6483 before the FOMC gave SM cause to remove weak longs. The Asian range is 1.6364 – 1.6396 currently. Although there is climatic volume in H4, price action after taking out the 1.6464 level failed to show real absorption volume for a continuation as it failed to close above the 1.6464 level or close to it. Furthermore, the bulk of long positions from the recent 1.6215 swing up may still be in the SM inventory. This would suggest two possibilities, the first is that SM has distributed all its long positions which is rather improbable given the duration was so short at the swing high. The second is that SM has taken out the stops of the short traders and will retest the high for supply and distribute on the way back up to that level.
GU long levels: 1.6340, 1.6320, 1.6270, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6455, 1.6480
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (137pips) bear closing just off the low on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 A quick review of the FOMC shows market reaction as expected and the whipsaw down and back up was also expected owing to the relatively small taper. SM had in the first hour dived down to the 1.3700 key level and then reversed up to 1.3810 effectively wiping all weak longs/shorts off the board. It seemed that the stage was set for more up. However, the question and answer with Ben Bernanke was the game changer as Ben said that the FED could taper at every meeting. This effectively means that in theory, the FED’s balance sheet will be “healthier” with each meeting, this is a fundamental change and the market stalled and tanked shortly after. Levels of interest: 1.3600 key level – this is the previous daily breakout level and must hold in order for price to continue upward. We may see price compress as it reaches this level if it breaks and closes below the 1.3650 level. The Asian range is 1.3648 – 1.3693 currently. SM will likely create buying pressure to fade the weak shorts before reversing downwards to test the low.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3758, 1.3775, 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a very large spread (222pips) bull closing slightly more than 1/3 off the top on high vol>8days. The candle close suggests that there is selling and the volume suggests buying. Levels of interest: yesterday-tested breakout level 1.6480 Prices actually took stops above the previous swing high making a new high in 1.6483 before the FOMC gave SM cause to remove weak longs. The Asian range is 1.6364 – 1.6396 currently. Although there is climatic volume in H4, price action after taking out the 1.6464 level failed to show real absorption volume for a continuation as it failed to close above the 1.6464 level or close to it. Furthermore, the bulk of long positions from the recent 1.6215 swing up may still be in the SM inventory. This would suggest two possibilities, the first is that SM has distributed all its long positions which is rather improbable given the duration was so short at the swing high. The second is that SM has taken out the stops of the short traders and will retest the high for supply and distribute on the way back up to that level.
GU long levels: 1.6340, 1.6320, 1.6270, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6455, 1.6480
Wednesday 18 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 18 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (59pips) bull downthrust closing off the high on low vol<4days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests no demand. No change in Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 There is a trading range from 1.3708 – 1.3810 with TR1 1.3708 – 1.3758 and TR2 1.3758 – 1.3810 The Asian range is 1.3762 – 1.3772 currently, almost déjà vu with yesterday’s Asia range as SM pushed all the way to stop hunt below the 1.3727 level yesterday. We are in a trading range situation so it makes sense to trade the range high and low pre-FOMC if we get a setup. Anything in-between is risky although it is possible to take EU long from Asia low (confluence with TR middle 1.3758 and ema200 1.3760) but clear SM manipulation is required and stops should be as tight as possible. DailyFx states “The ECB’s balance sheet has declined by -24.6% in the 52-weeks ending December 6, 2013; to contrast, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown by +36.8% over this same period; and the Bank of Japan’s has growth by +40.7%.” SM cannot ignore the fundamentals and is likely to move EU up regardless of whether the FED tapers in Dec or Jan. In the event of a Dec taper, SM will likely use the FOMC news to whipsaw EU before reversing upward. The fact that the majority of open positions on most platforms are short makes it even more likely for SM to do so.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895, 1.3985, 1.4155, 1.4200, 1.4250
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (119pips) bear wide-body spinning top on low vol>1day. The candle close suggests that there is buying and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: H4/demand level 1.6190 – 1.6215 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Yesterday, SM tested broke Friday’s low and stop hunted the 1.6225 level going down to 1.6215 before reversing upward. Downward Swing range is now 249pips which is about what we could expect in a retracement move and price has taken stops just below the Daily 38.2%Fib 1.6231 The Asian range is 1.6260 – 1.6287 currently. The GU is likely to move together with the EU later with the FOMC news release as its movement will be based on USD strength/weakness and not cross-pair manipulation. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.6300 key level or perhaps yesterday’s high before reversing downward to retest at least 1.6225 before reversing upward. A H1/H4 close below yesterday’s low will likely see prices test the 1.6200 key level and lower.
GU long levels: 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (59pips) bull downthrust closing off the high on low vol<4days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests no demand. No change in Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 There is a trading range from 1.3708 – 1.3810 with TR1 1.3708 – 1.3758 and TR2 1.3758 – 1.3810 The Asian range is 1.3762 – 1.3772 currently, almost déjà vu with yesterday’s Asia range as SM pushed all the way to stop hunt below the 1.3727 level yesterday. We are in a trading range situation so it makes sense to trade the range high and low pre-FOMC if we get a setup. Anything in-between is risky although it is possible to take EU long from Asia low (confluence with TR middle 1.3758 and ema200 1.3760) but clear SM manipulation is required and stops should be as tight as possible. DailyFx states “The ECB’s balance sheet has declined by -24.6% in the 52-weeks ending December 6, 2013; to contrast, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown by +36.8% over this same period; and the Bank of Japan’s has growth by +40.7%.” SM cannot ignore the fundamentals and is likely to move EU up regardless of whether the FED tapers in Dec or Jan. In the event of a Dec taper, SM will likely use the FOMC news to whipsaw EU before reversing upward. The fact that the majority of open positions on most platforms are short makes it even more likely for SM to do so.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895, 1.3985, 1.4155, 1.4200, 1.4250
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (119pips) bear wide-body spinning top on low vol>1day. The candle close suggests that there is buying and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: H4/demand level 1.6190 – 1.6215 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Yesterday, SM tested broke Friday’s low and stop hunted the 1.6225 level going down to 1.6215 before reversing upward. Downward Swing range is now 249pips which is about what we could expect in a retracement move and price has taken stops just below the Daily 38.2%Fib 1.6231 The Asian range is 1.6260 – 1.6287 currently. The GU is likely to move together with the EU later with the FOMC news release as its movement will be based on USD strength/weakness and not cross-pair manipulation. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.6300 key level or perhaps yesterday’s high before reversing downward to retest at least 1.6225 before reversing upward. A H1/H4 close below yesterday’s low will likely see prices test the 1.6200 key level and lower.
GU long levels: 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Tuesday 17 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 17 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (70pips) bull closing ½ off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests no demand. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3751 – 1.3771 currently. The current daily candle close at what appears to be strong resistance is a likely bear trap prior to the positioning pre-FOMC where it is likely that SM will take prices. SM is likely to create buying pressure to continue fading the new shorts past the 1.3800 key level and then reverse back down before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (63pips) bull upthrust on low vol<24days. The candle close suggests that there is selling and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Daily 23.8%Fib @ 1.6318 Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.6231 Daily 50%Fib @ 1.6156 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 The Asian range is 1.6288 – 1.6318 currently and prices are still within yesterday’s range. With UK news expected later, we can expect SM to more or less move/position prices in the opposition direction prior to the news. SM is likely to create buying pressure to around 1.6354 before reversing to retest last Friday’s low.
GU long levels: 1.6261, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (70pips) bull closing ½ off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests no demand. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3751 – 1.3771 currently. The current daily candle close at what appears to be strong resistance is a likely bear trap prior to the positioning pre-FOMC where it is likely that SM will take prices. SM is likely to create buying pressure to continue fading the new shorts past the 1.3800 key level and then reverse back down before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (63pips) bull upthrust on low vol<24days. The candle close suggests that there is selling and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Daily 23.8%Fib @ 1.6318 Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.6231 Daily 50%Fib @ 1.6156 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 The Asian range is 1.6288 – 1.6318 currently and prices are still within yesterday’s range. With UK news expected later, we can expect SM to more or less move/position prices in the opposition direction prior to the news. SM is likely to create buying pressure to around 1.6354 before reversing to retest last Friday’s low.
GU long levels: 1.6261, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Monday 16 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 16 Dec 2013
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (117pips) bull closing 3/5 off the high on high vol>17weeks. The candle close and volume suggests selling as price reached the previous daily supply levels of around 1.3800 – 1.3831 The Daily candle is a below-average spread (60pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests buying and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 Prices opened slightly gapped down but has since been closed as SM fades the low-level shorts who were late to the party. The Asian range is 1.3727 – 1.3760 currently. SM is likely to create buying pressure to continue fading the shorts to Friday’s high 1.3768 and then reverse to induce shorts before reversing back upwards. Where will SM be likely to resume the upward push? Looking at last week’s price action, we are looking at the key 1.3700 not being tested in spite of all the news moves (there was a fair amount of tapering talk by various FED officials) and a fairly strong retracement fade upwards, this would suggest that SM has trapped traders below this level and it may not retest until after price has moved higher than the current swing high of 1.3831 so possible levels for the long would be the Asia low 1.3727 or around Friday’s NY low 1.3713.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (203pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests that there is no selling pressure and the context is one where supply looks to have been absorbed and prices may be positioned to climb to test the next supply levels. The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests that there is buying and the volume suggests no supply. Levels of interest: Daily 23.8%Fib @ 1.6318 Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.6231 Daily 50%Fib @ 1.6156 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Price opened with a small gap down which has since been closed and the Asian range is 1.6284 – 1.6307 currently. SM has trapped the low-level short traders and will most likely create buying pressure to fade them, retesting 1.6318 and higher (maybe close to last Friday’s high around 1.6354) before reversing back downward to test last Friday’s low or lower.
GU long levels: 1.6261, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (117pips) bull closing 3/5 off the high on high vol>17weeks. The candle close and volume suggests selling as price reached the previous daily supply levels of around 1.3800 – 1.3831 The Daily candle is a below-average spread (60pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests buying and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 Prices opened slightly gapped down but has since been closed as SM fades the low-level shorts who were late to the party. The Asian range is 1.3727 – 1.3760 currently. SM is likely to create buying pressure to continue fading the shorts to Friday’s high 1.3768 and then reverse to induce shorts before reversing back upwards. Where will SM be likely to resume the upward push? Looking at last week’s price action, we are looking at the key 1.3700 not being tested in spite of all the news moves (there was a fair amount of tapering talk by various FED officials) and a fairly strong retracement fade upwards, this would suggest that SM has trapped traders below this level and it may not retest until after price has moved higher than the current swing high of 1.3831 so possible levels for the long would be the Asia low 1.3727 or around Friday’s NY low 1.3713.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (203pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests that there is no selling pressure and the context is one where supply looks to have been absorbed and prices may be positioned to climb to test the next supply levels. The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests that there is buying and the volume suggests no supply. Levels of interest: Daily 23.8%Fib @ 1.6318 Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.6231 Daily 50%Fib @ 1.6156 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Price opened with a small gap down which has since been closed and the Asian range is 1.6284 – 1.6307 currently. SM has trapped the low-level short traders and will most likely create buying pressure to fade them, retesting 1.6318 and higher (maybe close to last Friday’s high around 1.6354) before reversing back downward to test last Friday’s low or lower.
GU long levels: 1.6261, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Friday 13 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 13 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (66pips) bear wide-body spinning top closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests possible commencement of buying. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3741 – 1.3759 currently. Yesterday saw prices push to the key 1.3800 level without testing the 1.3831 swing high. Subsequently, prices tanked when news of RBA calling for AU at 0.8500 triggered a strengthening of the USD and EU fell with mixed US news of poor employment figures and good Retail Sales. Whilst it is possible that a mid-week reversal has begun at the 1.3800 level, it could be only a retracement in the bigger scheme of things as SM loads up again at the lows for a push to 1.3831 which is still well within reach. SM is likely to create selling pressure to test the yesterday’s low or lower and then reverse upwards to fade the weak shorts to test the higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3736, 1.3720, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests that there is buying into the candle. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Yesterday SM did as expected to test close to 1.6420 and then stalled at the 1.6320 which is still holding. The Asian range is 1.6331 – 1.6359 currently. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test yesterday’s low and reverse upward to test 1.6480 and higher.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6290 GU short levels: 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Note: With FOMC expected next week and today being Friday with not much significant news events, SM may not really move prices all that much until very late in order to trap traders going into the weekend.
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (66pips) bear wide-body spinning top closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests possible commencement of buying. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3741 – 1.3759 currently. Yesterday saw prices push to the key 1.3800 level without testing the 1.3831 swing high. Subsequently, prices tanked when news of RBA calling for AU at 0.8500 triggered a strengthening of the USD and EU fell with mixed US news of poor employment figures and good Retail Sales. Whilst it is possible that a mid-week reversal has begun at the 1.3800 level, it could be only a retracement in the bigger scheme of things as SM loads up again at the lows for a push to 1.3831 which is still well within reach. SM is likely to create selling pressure to test the yesterday’s low or lower and then reverse upwards to fade the weak shorts to test the higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3736, 1.3720, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests that there is buying into the candle. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Yesterday SM did as expected to test close to 1.6420 and then stalled at the 1.6320 which is still holding. The Asian range is 1.6331 – 1.6359 currently. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test yesterday’s low and reverse upward to test 1.6480 and higher.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6290 GU short levels: 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Note: With FOMC expected next week and today being Friday with not much significant news events, SM may not really move prices all that much until very late in order to trap traders going into the weekend.
Thursday 12 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 12 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (71pips) bull spinning top closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>2days with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Price has broken to the 1.3810 level and near the daily/weekly swing high level 1.3831 Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3772 – 1.3802. Nothing has changed and the fact remains that price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a H1/H4 close above will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level or higher. These two levels remain significant levels for reversal or retracement for profit taking. SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.3800 key level again then reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels from which a mid-week reversal is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3746, 1.3720, 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (118pips) bear closing about slightly more than 1/4 off the low on low vol>2days. The candle close suggests that there is some buying into the candle. The Asian range is 1.6351 – 1.6414. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 As seen in the H4 charts, SM is likely to have been accumulating for a push north from 1.6300 upwards. Shown is a H4 chart that was posted yesterday. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.6421 and maybe higher before reversing to fade weak longs and reversing again back to test 1.6480 and higher.
GU long levels: 1.6351, 1.6338, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (71pips) bull spinning top closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>2days with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Price has broken to the 1.3810 level and near the daily/weekly swing high level 1.3831 Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3772 – 1.3802. Nothing has changed and the fact remains that price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a H1/H4 close above will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level or higher. These two levels remain significant levels for reversal or retracement for profit taking. SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.3800 key level again then reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels from which a mid-week reversal is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3746, 1.3720, 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (118pips) bear closing about slightly more than 1/4 off the low on low vol>2days. The candle close suggests that there is some buying into the candle. The Asian range is 1.6351 – 1.6414. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 As seen in the H4 charts, SM is likely to have been accumulating for a push north from 1.6300 upwards. Shown is a H4 chart that was posted yesterday. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.6421 and maybe higher before reversing to fade weak longs and reversing again back to test 1.6480 and higher.
GU long levels: 1.6351, 1.6338, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Wednesday 11 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 11 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>1day with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling. However, with price somewhat in the middle of nowhere and close enough to the 1.3800 key level and daily swing high level 1.3830, it is more likely a bear trap for SM short-term load up and unload at the top. The H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 has also likely been absorbed and prices look poised for at least one test of the key level 1.3800. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with Monday Asia high 1.3720, Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 The Asian range is 1.3746 – 1.3765 currently. Broker platforms still show a net-short bias giving SM a nice food chain to the upside. Price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a close above that will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level or higher. SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.3800 key level then reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels from which a mid-week reversal is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3720, 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (47pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>1day with continued bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests that there is no buying momentum. However, without any climatic volume being seen in the upward pushes, there is always the possibility that there could be a further push upward. This would make sense since brokers’ platforms do show net short positions indicating that the possibility of foraging for more orders to the upside by SM is still there. The Asian range is 1.6429 – 1.6456 currenty. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the current high and maybe higher before reversing.
GU long levels: 1.6375, 1.6353, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6570, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>1day with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling. However, with price somewhat in the middle of nowhere and close enough to the 1.3800 key level and daily swing high level 1.3830, it is more likely a bear trap for SM short-term load up and unload at the top. The H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 has also likely been absorbed and prices look poised for at least one test of the key level 1.3800. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with Monday Asia high 1.3720, Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 The Asian range is 1.3746 – 1.3765 currently. Broker platforms still show a net-short bias giving SM a nice food chain to the upside. Price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a close above that will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level or higher. SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.3800 key level then reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels from which a mid-week reversal is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3720, 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (47pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>1day with continued bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests that there is no buying momentum. However, without any climatic volume being seen in the upward pushes, there is always the possibility that there could be a further push upward. This would make sense since brokers’ platforms do show net short positions indicating that the possibility of foraging for more orders to the upside by SM is still there. The Asian range is 1.6429 – 1.6456 currenty. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the current high and maybe higher before reversing.
GU long levels: 1.6375, 1.6353, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6570, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Tuesday 10 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 10 Dec 2013
My apologies just got back after the whole day out attending to urgent matters. Posted EST 7.30am
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (51pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<3days with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests further upside but the volume suggests a lack of buying interest. Unchanged Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 The Asian range is 1.3732 – 1.3766. Potential TR Lower: 1.3610 – 1.3650 TR Upper: 1.3650 – 1.3720. Price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a close above that will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level. These supply levels will be tested and are high probability reversal levels for a retracement for SM to take profit. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a above-average spread (109pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<24days. The candle close suggests more upside but volume suggests that momentum has slowed and may be topping off. The Asian range is 1.6417 – 1.6464. SM has actually reset GU to a long bias again. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure and then reverse back upward but volume is falling off so we may see very choppy price action if not a full blown reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6380, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6452, 1.6490, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
My apologies just got back after the whole day out attending to urgent matters. Posted EST 7.30am
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (51pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<3days with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests further upside but the volume suggests a lack of buying interest. Unchanged Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 The Asian range is 1.3732 – 1.3766. Potential TR Lower: 1.3610 – 1.3650 TR Upper: 1.3650 – 1.3720. Price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a close above that will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level. These supply levels will be tested and are high probability reversal levels for a retracement for SM to take profit. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a above-average spread (109pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<24days. The candle close suggests more upside but volume suggests that momentum has slowed and may be topping off. The Asian range is 1.6417 – 1.6464. SM has actually reset GU to a long bias again. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure and then reverse back upward but volume is falling off so we may see very choppy price action if not a full blown reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6380, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6452, 1.6490, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Monday 9 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 09 Dec 2013
EU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (182pips) bull closing at the high closing on high vol>17days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a large spread (87pips) bull closing at the high on average vol<2days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests further upside but the volume suggests a lack of demand. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 As anticipated, SM used the NFP news on Friday to wipe out another bunch of weak shorts who jumped in on the “strong” NFP numbers. Price opened today with a small gap up taking out any remaining shorts and has closed the gap with the Asian range currently 1.3699 – 1.3720. The current H4 swing low to high is about 325pips and given that we had two days (Thursday and Friday) of inefficient news moves, it suggests that the main participants long now are the SM. So the question is what will they be likely to do with a bucketful of long orders? We are possibly at a very key level as a daily close above 1.3850 will likely expose the 1.4000 – 1.4500 levels. Therefore this area could be a potential launch pad for further assault on the higher supply levels or a major reversal level. Potential TR Lower: 1.3610 – 1.3650 TR Upper: 1.3650 – 1.3720. Having closed the gap, if SM retests the high or higher inducing longs before reversing to take profit (remember they have many long orders), they are likely to reverse back up again once they have re-stocked long orders. If SM keeps the selling pressure from today’s highs, they will also likely reverse back upwards once they have sufficient orders again. Either way, SM is likely to test the 1.3830 level sometime soon unless we get some tape bomb that cause USD to strengthen or EURO to weaken fundamentally, which I believe is unlikely with Euro interest rate decision out of the way.
EU long levels: 1.3650 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3720, 1.3780, 1.3800, 1.3825
GU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (152pips) bear small-bodied spinning top closing on high vol>17days. The Daily candle is a normal spread (103pips) bull small-bodied spinning top closing on high vol<2days. (will update later)
EU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (182pips) bull closing at the high closing on high vol>17days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a large spread (87pips) bull closing at the high on average vol<2days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests further upside but the volume suggests a lack of demand. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 As anticipated, SM used the NFP news on Friday to wipe out another bunch of weak shorts who jumped in on the “strong” NFP numbers. Price opened today with a small gap up taking out any remaining shorts and has closed the gap with the Asian range currently 1.3699 – 1.3720. The current H4 swing low to high is about 325pips and given that we had two days (Thursday and Friday) of inefficient news moves, it suggests that the main participants long now are the SM. So the question is what will they be likely to do with a bucketful of long orders? We are possibly at a very key level as a daily close above 1.3850 will likely expose the 1.4000 – 1.4500 levels. Therefore this area could be a potential launch pad for further assault on the higher supply levels or a major reversal level. Potential TR Lower: 1.3610 – 1.3650 TR Upper: 1.3650 – 1.3720. Having closed the gap, if SM retests the high or higher inducing longs before reversing to take profit (remember they have many long orders), they are likely to reverse back up again once they have re-stocked long orders. If SM keeps the selling pressure from today’s highs, they will also likely reverse back upwards once they have sufficient orders again. Either way, SM is likely to test the 1.3830 level sometime soon unless we get some tape bomb that cause USD to strengthen or EURO to weaken fundamentally, which I believe is unlikely with Euro interest rate decision out of the way.
EU long levels: 1.3650 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3720, 1.3780, 1.3800, 1.3825
GU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (152pips) bear small-bodied spinning top closing on high vol>17days. The Daily candle is a normal spread (103pips) bull small-bodied spinning top closing on high vol<2days. (will update later)
Friday 6 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 06 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (134pips) bull closing at the high on very high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 SM used both sets of news to sweep out weak shorts and longs again yesterday, definitely re-stocking inventory for a continued upward push. The Asian range is 1.3654 – 1.3676 currently. Most broker platforms have increased net short positions. The current H4 swing low to high is about 280pips and given that the news move yesterday was inefficient, SM may retrace deeper to create a mini “mid-week reversal” but before doing that they will want to remove the weak shorts since some broker platforms report a 10% increase of short positions over last week. Supply at the previous breakout level 1.3660 is already absorbed and SM will likely create buying pressure to test yesterday’s high and quite possibly spike the 1.3700 key level inducing breakout traders before reversing to remove weak longs before reversing, possibly the reversal will use the NFP news just as SM did yesterday except that it will likely be clearer as we will not have Euro news at the same time to create more whipsaw.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3676, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780, 1.3800, 1.3825
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (103pips) bear wide-bodied spinning top closing on very high vol>79days. The candle close and volume suggests that there is the commencement of buying into the candle. This may just signal a possible reverse upwards as climatic volume can already be seen in H4 with prices currently holding at the H4 short term demand level 1.6296 – 1.6320. The next H4 demand level (also short term and a possible manipulation level) is just below at 1.6255 – 1.6270. The Asian range is 1.6317 – 1.6341 currently. SM retests Asian high or higher before reversing down to test yesterday’s low. Although the SM bias is downwards at the moment, volume suggests that a push back upwards is likely soon. SM will likely position GU against the expected direction before the NFP news today and will likely reverse this upwards to take out the large number of shorts that have jumped in already. A H1/H4 close above 1.6400 will likely see a retest of the 1.6441 level. This would of course be in line with the anticipated EU push back upwards. After all, to move EU will require selling USD and EU has the largest percentage by volume (which will definitely move GU up), not only manipulating EG. Depending on the impact of the news, a reversal back upwards or cycle reset is still possible. To accommodate the possible impact of news, I have added more levels.
GU long levels: 1.6300, 1.6260, 1.6240 (breakout level), 1.6209, 1.6133 GU short levels: 1.6367, 1.6400, 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (134pips) bull closing at the high on very high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 SM used both sets of news to sweep out weak shorts and longs again yesterday, definitely re-stocking inventory for a continued upward push. The Asian range is 1.3654 – 1.3676 currently. Most broker platforms have increased net short positions. The current H4 swing low to high is about 280pips and given that the news move yesterday was inefficient, SM may retrace deeper to create a mini “mid-week reversal” but before doing that they will want to remove the weak shorts since some broker platforms report a 10% increase of short positions over last week. Supply at the previous breakout level 1.3660 is already absorbed and SM will likely create buying pressure to test yesterday’s high and quite possibly spike the 1.3700 key level inducing breakout traders before reversing to remove weak longs before reversing, possibly the reversal will use the NFP news just as SM did yesterday except that it will likely be clearer as we will not have Euro news at the same time to create more whipsaw.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3676, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780, 1.3800, 1.3825
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (103pips) bear wide-bodied spinning top closing on very high vol>79days. The candle close and volume suggests that there is the commencement of buying into the candle. This may just signal a possible reverse upwards as climatic volume can already be seen in H4 with prices currently holding at the H4 short term demand level 1.6296 – 1.6320. The next H4 demand level (also short term and a possible manipulation level) is just below at 1.6255 – 1.6270. The Asian range is 1.6317 – 1.6341 currently. SM retests Asian high or higher before reversing down to test yesterday’s low. Although the SM bias is downwards at the moment, volume suggests that a push back upwards is likely soon. SM will likely position GU against the expected direction before the NFP news today and will likely reverse this upwards to take out the large number of shorts that have jumped in already. A H1/H4 close above 1.6400 will likely see a retest of the 1.6441 level. This would of course be in line with the anticipated EU push back upwards. After all, to move EU will require selling USD and EU has the largest percentage by volume (which will definitely move GU up), not only manipulating EG. Depending on the impact of the news, a reversal back upwards or cycle reset is still possible. To accommodate the possible impact of news, I have added more levels.
GU long levels: 1.6300, 1.6260, 1.6240 (breakout level), 1.6209, 1.6133 GU short levels: 1.6367, 1.6400, 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620
Thursday 5 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 05 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (77pips) bull small-bodied hammer closing off the high on high vol>10days. In the context of the TR, the candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 After reversing price up on Tue, SM used news to sweep out weak longs again yesterday suggesting a stocking of inventory for an coming upward push. The Asian range is 1.3579 – 1.3638 currently. The daily hammer candle is likely displayed to seduce more short orders that will have stops placed above the current TR high 1.3621. SM will likely create buying pressure to test the 1.3660 breakout level and reverse to remove weak longs before reversing around the 1.3600 – 1.3590 level before reversing upwards to test 1.3660 (updated, corrected the error earlier) and higher.
EU long levels: 1.3600, 1.3590, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3660, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (81pips) bear small-bodied hammer closing on high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle but in the context of the weekly price action and current TR 1.6313 – 1.6441, it would suggest a reset of buying for more upside.
The Asian range is 1.6368 – 1.6397 currently. SM retests the Asia low or lower around 1.6346 before reversing up test the 1.6441 supply and higher .
GU long levels: 1.6367, 1.6346, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620
EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (77pips) bull small-bodied hammer closing off the high on high vol>10days. In the context of the TR, the candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 After reversing price up on Tue, SM used news to sweep out weak longs again yesterday suggesting a stocking of inventory for an coming upward push. The Asian range is 1.3579 – 1.3638 currently. The daily hammer candle is likely displayed to seduce more short orders that will have stops placed above the current TR high 1.3621. SM will likely create buying pressure to test the 1.3660 breakout level and reverse to remove weak longs before reversing around the 1.3600 – 1.3590 level before reversing upwards to test 1.3660 (updated, corrected the error earlier) and higher.
EU long levels: 1.3600, 1.3590, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3660, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (81pips) bear small-bodied hammer closing on high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle but in the context of the weekly price action and current TR 1.6313 – 1.6441, it would suggest a reset of buying for more upside.
The Asian range is 1.6368 – 1.6397 currently. SM retests the Asia low or lower around 1.6346 before reversing up test the 1.6441 supply and higher .
GU long levels: 1.6367, 1.6346, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620
Wednesday 4 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 04 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing 1/4 off the high on average vol<1days. The candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest (unchanged): Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Yesterday, price reversed the entire down move as anticipated. The Asian range is 1.3581 – 1.3597 currently. The daily spinning top is likely displayed to seduce more short orders. SM will likely create selling pressure to fade the weak longs possibly to around the 1.3556 level before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3556, 1.3530, 1.3504 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull upthrust closing on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle.
The Asian range is 1.6377 – 1.6396 currently. As anticipated, SM did stophunt the 1.6423 level to 1.6435 before reverse downwards after taking out the weak shorts. Since SM did not retest the high of 1.6441 yesterday, some of the possibilities: 1)SM retests the 1.6367 level before reversing up again to retest the 1.6441 supply and higher 2)SM tests the 1.6452 level then reverses for a possible mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6367, 1.6346, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing 1/4 off the high on average vol<1days. The candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest (unchanged): Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Yesterday, price reversed the entire down move as anticipated. The Asian range is 1.3581 – 1.3597 currently. The daily spinning top is likely displayed to seduce more short orders. SM will likely create selling pressure to fade the weak longs possibly to around the 1.3556 level before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3556, 1.3530, 1.3504 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull upthrust closing on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle.
The Asian range is 1.6377 – 1.6396 currently. As anticipated, SM did stophunt the 1.6423 level to 1.6435 before reverse downwards after taking out the weak shorts. Since SM did not retest the high of 1.6441 yesterday, some of the possibilities: 1)SM retests the 1.6367 level before reversing up again to retest the 1.6441 supply and higher 2)SM tests the 1.6452 level then reverses for a possible mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6367, 1.6346, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527
Tuesday 3 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 03 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bear closing nearly 1/3 off the low on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests buying into the candle as price reached the daily ema50 @ 1.3515 Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Price has continued to hold and the Asian range is 1.3523 – 1.3552 currently. SM has dropped yesterday and likely have most traders thinking short, SM is likely to test the NY session high 1.3559 and reverse creating selling pressure to induce shorts before reversing back up around 1.3515 or 1.3504. A H1/H4 close below 1.3498 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3515, 1.3504 EU short levels: 1.3559, 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (100pips) bear upthrust closing on average vol>6days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle.
The Asian range is 1.6345 – 1.6383 currently. As expected, SM did reverse downwards after taking out the weak shorts and as mentioned yesterday the current GU swing is also now about just over 300pips. Since SM did not retest the high of 1.6441 yesterday, some of the possibilities: 1)SM tests near the session highs yesterday (1.6395, 1.6423) or yesterday’s high and then reverses to create selling pressure to fade weak longs before reversing up again. 2)SM breaks yesterday’s high and tests the 1.6452 level then reverses for a possible deep retracement, maybe a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6341, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6395, 1.6423, 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bear closing nearly 1/3 off the low on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests buying into the candle as price reached the daily ema50 @ 1.3515 Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Price has continued to hold and the Asian range is 1.3523 – 1.3552 currently. SM has dropped yesterday and likely have most traders thinking short, SM is likely to test the NY session high 1.3559 and reverse creating selling pressure to induce shorts before reversing back up around 1.3515 or 1.3504. A H1/H4 close below 1.3498 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3515, 1.3504 EU short levels: 1.3559, 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (100pips) bear upthrust closing on average vol>6days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle.
The Asian range is 1.6345 – 1.6383 currently. As expected, SM did reverse downwards after taking out the weak shorts and as mentioned yesterday the current GU swing is also now about just over 300pips. Since SM did not retest the high of 1.6441 yesterday, some of the possibilities: 1)SM tests near the session highs yesterday (1.6395, 1.6423) or yesterday’s high and then reverses to create selling pressure to fade weak longs before reversing up again. 2)SM breaks yesterday’s high and tests the 1.6452 level then reverses for a possible deep retracement, maybe a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6341, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6395, 1.6423, 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527
Monday 2 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 02 Dec 2013
EU: Monthly – the candle is a small spread (327pips) downthrust dragonfly doji closing on low vol>3months. Price is really not at any significant level. Weekly – the candle is a small spread (132pips) bull closing 1/4 off the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but price is not at any significant level. The Daily candle is a small spread (42pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>1day with daily bearish volume divergence. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3581 – 1.3610 currently. The new TR 1.3559 – 1.3621 is holding at the moment. The food chain for SM is still northbound and SM is likely to retest the highs to induce more shorts, then reverse, possibly to Asia low before reversing back north. A H1/H4 close below 1.3581 may see price testing lower to the 1.3557 level before pushing back up.
EU long levels: 1.3580, 1.3564, 1.3557 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: Monthly- the candle is a normal spread (530pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggest more upside. Weekly- the candle is a near-normal spread (251pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>12weeks. The candle close and volume suggest upside. Levels of interest: Likely target 1.6750 Daily breakout of congestion level 1.6455 The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (70pips) bull small-bodied spinning top closing on average vol>5days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume does suggest selling into the candle.
Price has gapped up and broken last week’s high. The Asian range is 1.6367 – 1.6441 currently. The large range in Asia is likely to have taken out a significant number of weak shorts. The current GU swing is also now about just over 300pips, prices are also close to test the previous daily congestion breakout level of 1.6455 SM has done the business to take profits for November and this should be a good level to start fading the new longs and the weak longs. Today may see a retracement downwards at the test of the 1.6455 level. SM is likely to induce breakout traders at the retest of the high or around the 1.6455 level before reversing for a retracement trade down which may turn out to be a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6352, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527
EU: Monthly – the candle is a small spread (327pips) downthrust dragonfly doji closing on low vol>3months. Price is really not at any significant level. Weekly – the candle is a small spread (132pips) bull closing 1/4 off the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but price is not at any significant level. The Daily candle is a small spread (42pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>1day with daily bearish volume divergence. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3581 – 1.3610 currently. The new TR 1.3559 – 1.3621 is holding at the moment. The food chain for SM is still northbound and SM is likely to retest the highs to induce more shorts, then reverse, possibly to Asia low before reversing back north. A H1/H4 close below 1.3581 may see price testing lower to the 1.3557 level before pushing back up.
EU long levels: 1.3580, 1.3564, 1.3557 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: Monthly- the candle is a normal spread (530pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggest more upside. Weekly- the candle is a near-normal spread (251pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>12weeks. The candle close and volume suggest upside. Levels of interest: Likely target 1.6750 Daily breakout of congestion level 1.6455 The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (70pips) bull small-bodied spinning top closing on average vol>5days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume does suggest selling into the candle.
Price has gapped up and broken last week’s high. The Asian range is 1.6367 – 1.6441 currently. The large range in Asia is likely to have taken out a significant number of weak shorts. The current GU swing is also now about just over 300pips, prices are also close to test the previous daily congestion breakout level of 1.6455 SM has done the business to take profits for November and this should be a good level to start fading the new longs and the weak longs. Today may see a retracement downwards at the test of the 1.6455 level. SM is likely to induce breakout traders at the retest of the high or around the 1.6455 level before reversing for a retracement trade down which may turn out to be a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6352, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527
Friday 29 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 29 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (54pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing on very low vol<27days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests no buying interest. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 The Asian range is 1.3599 – 1.3621 currently. Price has broken yesterday’s high with SM springing the bear trap mentioned yesterday trapping shorts and already removed lots of weak longs. Price has kissed the Fib 23.8% level and looks like it has stalled here with bearish volume divergence. Today being Friday and the last working day of the month means we can expect month-end flows. We have seen consecutive 3 days of rise since Tuesday this week and about 224pips from the swing low to current swing high. Thinking aloud, is it possible that SM is going to have a mid-week reversal today or even a full blown reversal? It looks like SM has established a new TR 1.3559 – 1.3621 from which to launch a fresh assault on the highs. SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce shorts and remove weak longs until around the 1.3580 or even 1.3564 level before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3580, 1.3564, 1.3557 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (80pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing on low vol<2days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests more upside. Price has broken yesterday’s high and the Asian range is 1.6330 – 1.6373 currently. Like EU, GU has also seen 3 consecutive days of rise with about 235pips from the swing low to swing high. With a new high in place and a likely continuation of higher prices to close out the month, SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to induce shorts as well as fade the weak longs to book profits then reverse upward to fade the new shorts and book in more profits to close out the day on a higher high.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (54pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing on very low vol<27days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests no buying interest. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 The Asian range is 1.3599 – 1.3621 currently. Price has broken yesterday’s high with SM springing the bear trap mentioned yesterday trapping shorts and already removed lots of weak longs. Price has kissed the Fib 23.8% level and looks like it has stalled here with bearish volume divergence. Today being Friday and the last working day of the month means we can expect month-end flows. We have seen consecutive 3 days of rise since Tuesday this week and about 224pips from the swing low to current swing high. Thinking aloud, is it possible that SM is going to have a mid-week reversal today or even a full blown reversal? It looks like SM has established a new TR 1.3559 – 1.3621 from which to launch a fresh assault on the highs. SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce shorts and remove weak longs until around the 1.3580 or even 1.3564 level before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3580, 1.3564, 1.3557 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a near normal spread (80pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing on low vol<2days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests more upside. Price has broken yesterday’s high and the Asian range is 1.6330 – 1.6373 currently. Like EU, GU has also seen 3 consecutive days of rise with about 235pips from the swing low to swing high. With a new high in place and a likely continuation of higher prices to close out the month, SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to induce shorts as well as fade the weak longs to book profits then reverse upward to fade the new shorts and book in more profits to close out the day on a higher high.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527
Thursday 28 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 28 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (55pips) bull upthrust pin closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 The Asian range is 1.3563 – 1.3585 currently. Nothing has really changed except that SM look like they are not yet ready to push up strongly. As for the the daily upthrust candle, the position of the candle is in no-man’s land. This is likely a bear trap by SM to snare traders short on retest of the high up to yesterday’s high or even around the Fib 23.8% level and then reverse to around the 1.3557 level before reversing back upwards. With barely 10 pips between the two levels, SM can snare both long breakout traders, support/resistance traders as well as the Fib traders.
EU long levels: 1.3557, 1.3542, 1.3530 EU short levels: 1.3612, 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (130pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>3days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests more upside. Price is close to yesterday’s high and the Asian range is 1.6276 – 1.6326 SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test or spike the current day high to induce shorts then reverse downward to fade weak longs before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6329 (short term only), 1.6353, 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (55pips) bull upthrust pin closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 The Asian range is 1.3563 – 1.3585 currently. Nothing has really changed except that SM look like they are not yet ready to push up strongly. As for the the daily upthrust candle, the position of the candle is in no-man’s land. This is likely a bear trap by SM to snare traders short on retest of the high up to yesterday’s high or even around the Fib 23.8% level and then reverse to around the 1.3557 level before reversing back upwards. With barely 10 pips between the two levels, SM can snare both long breakout traders, support/resistance traders as well as the Fib traders.
EU long levels: 1.3557, 1.3542, 1.3530 EU short levels: 1.3612, 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (130pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>3days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests more upside. Price is close to yesterday’s high and the Asian range is 1.6276 – 1.6326 SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test or spike the current day high to induce shorts then reverse downward to fade weak longs before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6329 (short term only), 1.6353, 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527
Wednesday 27 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 27 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (60pips) bull closing at the top on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Some analyst’s headlines state “Forex Crowds Grow Further Short EURUSD”. Price has broken and held above TR1 high 1.3578 with the Asian range 1.3557 – 1.3598 currently. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Prices have already broken yesterday’s high and SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.3600 key level to induce longs and then reversing downwards to fade the weak longs and later reverse back upward into the new “uptrend”.
EU long levels: 1.3557, 1.3542, 1.3530 EU short levels: 1.3608, 1.3625, 1.3695
GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (80pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Price has broken yesterday’s high with a daily close at 1.6113 (above previous Asia breakout level of 1.6209) and the Asian range is 1.6198 – 1.6229 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the current day high or this week’s high 1.6239 before reversing downward to fade weak and reload inventory before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6196, 1.6177, 1.6144 GU short levels: 1.6239 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (60pips) bull closing at the top on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Some analyst’s headlines state “Forex Crowds Grow Further Short EURUSD”. Price has broken and held above TR1 high 1.3578 with the Asian range 1.3557 – 1.3598 currently. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Prices have already broken yesterday’s high and SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.3600 key level to induce longs and then reversing downwards to fade the weak longs and later reverse back upward into the new “uptrend”.
EU long levels: 1.3557, 1.3542, 1.3530 EU short levels: 1.3608, 1.3625, 1.3695
GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (80pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Price has broken yesterday’s high with a daily close at 1.6113 (above previous Asia breakout level of 1.6209) and the Asian range is 1.6198 – 1.6229 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the current day high or this week’s high 1.6239 before reversing downward to fade weak and reload inventory before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6196, 1.6177, 1.6144 GU short levels: 1.6239 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380
Tuesday 26 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 26 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (70pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. Most analysts’ platforms still show an increase in net short positions. Price is still within TR1: 1.3498 – 1.3578 with the Asian range 1.3514 – 1.3540 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test yesterday’s or Friday’s high to induce longs before reversing downwards to fade the weak longs then reverse back upward.
EU long levels: 1.3559 (if price breaks and closes above 1.3578 during London and retests), 1.3537, 1.3515, 13500 EU short levels: 1.3578, 1.3695
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (107pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<6days. The candle close does suggest some downside but the volume suggests that this move was a SM fade to remove weak longs. The Asian range is 1.6144 – 1.6191 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.6209 Asia breakout level before reversing downward to retest yesterday’s low and reload inventory, before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6144, 1.6133, 1.6102 GU short levels: 1.6239 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (70pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. Most analysts’ platforms still show an increase in net short positions. Price is still within TR1: 1.3498 – 1.3578 with the Asian range 1.3514 – 1.3540 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test yesterday’s or Friday’s high to induce longs before reversing downwards to fade the weak longs then reverse back upward.
EU long levels: 1.3559 (if price breaks and closes above 1.3578 during London and retests), 1.3537, 1.3515, 13500 EU short levels: 1.3578, 1.3695
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (107pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<6days. The candle close does suggest some downside but the volume suggests that this move was a SM fade to remove weak longs. The Asian range is 1.6144 – 1.6191 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.6209 Asia breakout level before reversing downward to retest yesterday’s low and reload inventory, before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6144, 1.6133, 1.6102 GU short levels: 1.6239 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380
Monday 25 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 25 Nov 2013
EU: Weekly – the candle is a small spread (180pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (117pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<3days. Price is still within TR1: 1.3498 – 1.3578 today (refer to last Friday’s review). Most analysts’ platforms show an increase in net short positions. Levels of interest: 1.3517 (H4 ema200) 1.3500 key level. The Asian range is 1.3534 – 1.3559 currently. SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce more shorts possibly to 1.3500 key level before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3533, 1.3515, 13500, 1.3461 EU short levels: 1.3578, 1.3695
GU: Weekly – the candle is a small spread (186pips) bull closing at the high on average vol >12days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside to test the supply levels at around 1.6280 The Daily candle is a small spread (51pips) bull closing at the high on high vol<3days with bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests more upside but volume suggests no demand. Price opened slightly gapped up today but has since closed and the Asian range is 1.6204 – 1.6239 currently. On the weekly chart, price had tested the supply zone around 1.6280 THREE times previously. SM is likely to create selling pressure to reload inventory, perhaps to around the 1.6183 level before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6180, 1.6167, 1.6133, 1.6102 GU short levels: 1.6239 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: Weekly – the candle is a small spread (180pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (117pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<3days. Price is still within TR1: 1.3498 – 1.3578 today (refer to last Friday’s review). Most analysts’ platforms show an increase in net short positions. Levels of interest: 1.3517 (H4 ema200) 1.3500 key level. The Asian range is 1.3534 – 1.3559 currently. SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce more shorts possibly to 1.3500 key level before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3533, 1.3515, 13500, 1.3461 EU short levels: 1.3578, 1.3695
GU: Weekly – the candle is a small spread (186pips) bull closing at the high on average vol >12days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside to test the supply levels at around 1.6280 The Daily candle is a small spread (51pips) bull closing at the high on high vol<3days with bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests more upside but volume suggests no demand. Price opened slightly gapped up today but has since closed and the Asian range is 1.6204 – 1.6239 currently. On the weekly chart, price had tested the supply zone around 1.6280 THREE times previously. SM is likely to create selling pressure to reload inventory, perhaps to around the 1.6183 level before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6180, 1.6167, 1.6133, 1.6102 GU short levels: 1.6239 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380
Friday 22 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 22 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (87pips) bull closing just off the high on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Prices barely moved on strong US Home Sales yesterday and reversed on poor Philly news. Even talk of negative interest by ECB personnel barely moved the prices any lower, instead it closed way above Wednesday’s low smack in the middle of Wednesday’s price action. Even talk of US FED tapering failed to make any impact leaving us an “inside day” situation. It will be best to look at possible trading ranges- TR1: 1.3498 – 1.3578 TR2: 1.3398 – 1.3498 Trap Zone: 1.3480 – 1.3504 (if you notice this gap has been used to trap traders long and short) Therefore any price close in H1/H4 above or below these trap levels would suggest either a long or short bias for the day. The Asian range is 1.3461 – 1.3485 currently. One analyst says “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week”. Especially after the ECB tape bomb, there will be a food chain for SM to gobble up northward as many traders will have jumped in on momentum thus not near the highs pre-announcement. SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to induce more shorts possibly to 1.3500 key level before reversing downwards to fade weak longs to possibly around 1.3447 before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3461, 1.3447, 1.3419, 1.3400 EU short levels: 1.3500, 1.3540, 1.3578
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (128pips) bull closing near the high on high vol<1days (BUT greater than the previous 68 days – Remember the perspective). The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Again, SM has used the news to accumulate inventory for the move north. The Asian range is 1.6175 – 1.6203 currently. Looking at the weekly chart, you will find that price has tested the supply zone around 1.6280 THREE times already. Since then, price has formed a trading range to absorb supply from between 1.5853 – 1.6259 Once price breaks and closes above 1.6259, the likely first target is 1.6500 hence I will look for shorts at the end of SM intraday cycles as short term trades and longs as longer term swing trades.
GU long levels: 1.6175, 1.6167, 1.6133, 1.6102 GU short levels: 1.6207 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (87pips) bull closing just off the high on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Prices barely moved on strong US Home Sales yesterday and reversed on poor Philly news. Even talk of negative interest by ECB personnel barely moved the prices any lower, instead it closed way above Wednesday’s low smack in the middle of Wednesday’s price action. Even talk of US FED tapering failed to make any impact leaving us an “inside day” situation. It will be best to look at possible trading ranges- TR1: 1.3498 – 1.3578 TR2: 1.3398 – 1.3498 Trap Zone: 1.3480 – 1.3504 (if you notice this gap has been used to trap traders long and short) Therefore any price close in H1/H4 above or below these trap levels would suggest either a long or short bias for the day. The Asian range is 1.3461 – 1.3485 currently. One analyst says “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week”. Especially after the ECB tape bomb, there will be a food chain for SM to gobble up northward as many traders will have jumped in on momentum thus not near the highs pre-announcement. SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to induce more shorts possibly to 1.3500 key level before reversing downwards to fade weak longs to possibly around 1.3447 before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3461, 1.3447, 1.3419, 1.3400 EU short levels: 1.3500, 1.3540, 1.3578
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (128pips) bull closing near the high on high vol<1days (BUT greater than the previous 68 days – Remember the perspective). The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Again, SM has used the news to accumulate inventory for the move north. The Asian range is 1.6175 – 1.6203 currently. Looking at the weekly chart, you will find that price has tested the supply zone around 1.6280 THREE times already. Since then, price has formed a trading range to absorb supply from between 1.5853 – 1.6259 Once price breaks and closes above 1.6259, the likely first target is 1.6500 hence I will look for shorts at the end of SM intraday cycles as short term trades and longs as longer term swing trades.
GU long levels: 1.6175, 1.6167, 1.6133, 1.6102 GU short levels: 1.6207 (short term only), 1.6255, 1.6290 – 1.6300, 1.6321, 1.6353, 1.6380
Thursday 21 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 21 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (164pips) bear closing just off the low on high vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Current Swing Fib50% @ 1.3498 Fib38.2% @ 1.3476 confluence with M15 ema200 @ 1.3480. Price tanked suddenly on the ECB tape bomb at the mention of negative interest rates consideration and has continued to push just a bit lower so far with the Asian range is 1.3413 – 1.3441 currently. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to induce more shorts possibly to 1.3400 key level (there will be stops there probably too tempting for SM to resist) before reversing upwards to remove weak longs and fade weak shorts to possibly around 1.3475 before reversing back down.
EU long levels: 1.3413, 1.3400, 1.3362, 1.3344, 1.3300 U short levels: 1.3442, 1.3480, 1.3500
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (91pips) upthrust bear closing off the low on high vol>68days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.6071 – 1.6107 currently. Levels of interest: M15 ema200 @ 1.6109 Fib50% @ 1.6123 Fib61.8% @ 1.6135 SM will be likely to create buying pressure to induce longs before reversing down. Yesterday’s down move after making the new high probably caught most traders by surprise so the likelihood is an inducing of new longs before trapping them while at the same time fading the late shorts. This is probably the mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6072, 1.6045, 1.6020, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6109, 1.6123, 1.6135, 1.6147, 1.6180
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (164pips) bear closing just off the low on high vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Current Swing Fib50% @ 1.3498 Fib38.2% @ 1.3476 confluence with M15 ema200 @ 1.3480. Price tanked suddenly on the ECB tape bomb at the mention of negative interest rates consideration and has continued to push just a bit lower so far with the Asian range is 1.3413 – 1.3441 currently. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to induce more shorts possibly to 1.3400 key level (there will be stops there probably too tempting for SM to resist) before reversing upwards to remove weak longs and fade weak shorts to possibly around 1.3475 before reversing back down.
EU long levels: 1.3413, 1.3400, 1.3362, 1.3344, 1.3300 U short levels: 1.3442, 1.3480, 1.3500
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (91pips) upthrust bear closing off the low on high vol>68days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.6071 – 1.6107 currently. Levels of interest: M15 ema200 @ 1.6109 Fib50% @ 1.6123 Fib61.8% @ 1.6135 SM will be likely to create buying pressure to induce longs before reversing down. Yesterday’s down move after making the new high probably caught most traders by surprise so the likelihood is an inducing of new longs before trapping them while at the same time fading the late shorts. This is probably the mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6072, 1.6045, 1.6020, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6109, 1.6123, 1.6135, 1.6147, 1.6180
Wednesday 20 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 20 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (60pips) bull closing just off the high on below average vol>2days. The candle close and increasing volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Previous Week High 1.3546. TR1 (1.3460 – 1.3550) 61.8%Fib @ 1.3625 confluence with Previous breakout level 1.3650 Price has broken above the congestion breakout high of 1.3550 overnight as SM cleared stops above the 50%Fib (1.3558) and induced Fib traders short. The Asian range is 1.3532 – 1.3578 currently. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to fade the weak longs and test the 1.3533 level or a bit lower before reversing upwards. If price falls and H1/H4 closes below 1.3474, we can expect more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3532, 1.3520, 1.3508 EU short levels: 1.3578, 1.3600, 1.3625, 1.3650, 1.3700
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (73pips) bull hammer closing off the high on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle and more downside. However, with the weekly price action in the background, the re-accumulation of orders by SM yesterday right down to 1.6058 and the current level suggests that the hammer may be a short trap. The Asian range is 1.6102 – 1.6142 currently. SM will be likely to build buying pressure to maybe spike 1.6147 to induce longs before reversing down to retest 1.6102 and reversing back again to fade weak shorts. With price still in no-man’s land, a H1/H4 close below 1.6102 will likely mean more downside and the possibility of a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6072, 1.6045, 1.6020, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6147, 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6240, 1.6259
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (60pips) bull closing just off the high on below average vol>2days. The candle close and increasing volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Previous Week High 1.3546. TR1 (1.3460 – 1.3550) 61.8%Fib @ 1.3625 confluence with Previous breakout level 1.3650 Price has broken above the congestion breakout high of 1.3550 overnight as SM cleared stops above the 50%Fib (1.3558) and induced Fib traders short. The Asian range is 1.3532 – 1.3578 currently. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to fade the weak longs and test the 1.3533 level or a bit lower before reversing upwards. If price falls and H1/H4 closes below 1.3474, we can expect more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3532, 1.3520, 1.3508 EU short levels: 1.3578, 1.3600, 1.3625, 1.3650, 1.3700
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (73pips) bull hammer closing off the high on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle and more downside. However, with the weekly price action in the background, the re-accumulation of orders by SM yesterday right down to 1.6058 and the current level suggests that the hammer may be a short trap. The Asian range is 1.6102 – 1.6142 currently. SM will be likely to build buying pressure to maybe spike 1.6147 to induce longs before reversing down to retest 1.6102 and reversing back again to fade weak shorts. With price still in no-man’s land, a H1/H4 close below 1.6102 will likely mean more downside and the possibility of a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6072, 1.6045, 1.6020, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6147, 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6240, 1.6259
Tuesday 19 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 19 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (67pips) bull small-body spinning top closing on below average vol>1day. The candle close suggests more downside but this looks to be more of a retracement. Levels of interest: Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. H4 supply level 1.3510 – 1.3562 The Asian range is 1.3498 – 1.3522 currently. Price is still sitting in the congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 After a snail-like rise in prices since 11 Nov 2013, the H1 and H4 bearish volume divergences finally kicked in and prices fell somewhat but the move does not look anything like a full blown reversal. A H1/H4 close below 1.3469 will likely see lower prices. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to test the 1.3500 level or a bit lower before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3497, 1.3474, 1.3455, 1.3433, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels: 1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (67pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling interest. The Asian range is 1.6097 – 1.6123 currently. Price action yesterday suggests that SM faded weak shorts and then reversed back to fade weak longs, effectively clearing the way to move up quickly when opportunity arises. Price continues to be in no-man’s land. A H1/H4 close below yesterday’s low will likely mean more downside before price reverses upwards. SM may continue the selling pressure to 1.6081 before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6095, 1.6081, 1.6048, 1.6020 GU short levels: 1.6123, 1.6150, 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6210
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (67pips) bull small-body spinning top closing on below average vol>1day. The candle close suggests more downside but this looks to be more of a retracement. Levels of interest: Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. H4 supply level 1.3510 – 1.3562 The Asian range is 1.3498 – 1.3522 currently. Price is still sitting in the congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 After a snail-like rise in prices since 11 Nov 2013, the H1 and H4 bearish volume divergences finally kicked in and prices fell somewhat but the move does not look anything like a full blown reversal. A H1/H4 close below 1.3469 will likely see lower prices. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to test the 1.3500 level or a bit lower before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3497, 1.3474, 1.3455, 1.3433, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels: 1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (67pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling interest. The Asian range is 1.6097 – 1.6123 currently. Price action yesterday suggests that SM faded weak shorts and then reversed back to fade weak longs, effectively clearing the way to move up quickly when opportunity arises. Price continues to be in no-man’s land. A H1/H4 close below yesterday’s low will likely mean more downside before price reverses upwards. SM may continue the selling pressure to 1.6081 before reversing upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6095, 1.6081, 1.6048, 1.6020 GU short levels: 1.6123, 1.6150, 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6210
Monday 18 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 18 Nov 2013
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (161pips) bull closing at high on average vol <1day. The candle close and volume suggest more upside. The Daily candle is a below average spread (74pips) bull closing just off the high on vol<3days. The candle close suggests suggests more upside although the volume does not indicate any buying interest. Levels of interest: congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. H4 ema200 @1.3525 and H4 supply level 1.3510 – 1.3562 The Asian range is 1.3474 – 1.3498 currently. Broker’s platforms once again show net an increase of short positions. In the absence of major news today, SM is likely to induce buying pressure and spike the 1.3500 key level to take stops and reverse back to fade weak longs before pushing up to test the 1.3524 and higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3455, 1.3433, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels: 1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600
GU: Weekly- the candle is a normal spread (280pips) bull closing off the high on vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (86pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests no demand. The Asian range is 1.6102 – 1.6126 Broker platforms also show an increase in short positions and this would suggest that the food chain for SM continues to be northbound. Price is in no-man’s land at the moment. SM may induce buying pressure to 1.6133 or higher before reversing to fade weak longs and reversing back up again.
GU long levels: 1.6088, 1.6055 GU short levels: 1.6133, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6210
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (161pips) bull closing at high on average vol <1day. The candle close and volume suggest more upside. The Daily candle is a below average spread (74pips) bull closing just off the high on vol<3days. The candle close suggests suggests more upside although the volume does not indicate any buying interest. Levels of interest: congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. H4 ema200 @1.3525 and H4 supply level 1.3510 – 1.3562 The Asian range is 1.3474 – 1.3498 currently. Broker’s platforms once again show net an increase of short positions. In the absence of major news today, SM is likely to induce buying pressure and spike the 1.3500 key level to take stops and reverse back to fade weak longs before pushing up to test the 1.3524 and higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3455, 1.3433, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels: 1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600
GU: Weekly- the candle is a normal spread (280pips) bull closing off the high on vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (86pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests no demand. The Asian range is 1.6102 – 1.6126 Broker platforms also show an increase in short positions and this would suggest that the food chain for SM continues to be northbound. Price is in no-man’s land at the moment. SM may induce buying pressure to 1.6133 or higher before reversing to fade weak longs and reversing back up again.
GU long levels: 1.6088, 1.6055 GU short levels: 1.6133, 1.6155, 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6210
Friday 15 November 2013
Thursday 14 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 14 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (105pips) bull closing just off the high on above average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. The Asian range is 1.3462 – 1.3497 SM used the news yesterday to effectively clear the entire 1.3389 – 1.3470 range by first removing the weak shorts and then the weak longs before making the real move upwards and stopping just short of the key 1.3500 level. SM has made a new high this morning but price is still trading below the high. After clearing such a wide range, SM will likely have taken out the traders trapped short and based on the broker’s platforms, net shorts are still more which means there is more upside. However, entering into the previous congestion breakout area will likely see some choppy price action as SM will likely clear the shorts in this level as well. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.3443 - 1.3435 and reverse to take out the weak shorts by spiking the key level 1.3500 retracing to take the breakout (long) trader’s stops then reverse again upward.
EU long levels: 1.3443, 1.3428, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels: 1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (189pips) bull closing at the high on average vol>2days. The close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Fib38.2% @ 1.5708 (daily confluence with ema200 @ 1.5713) The Asian range is 1.6026 – 1.6063 SM used yesterday’s UK news to push price up and continued the rise all the way through. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.6025 – 1.6000 before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6000, 1.5980, 1.5952 GU short levels: 1.6100, 1.6120, 1.6180, 1.6200
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (105pips) bull closing just off the high on above average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: congestion breakout level 1.3461 – 1.3550 Previous breakout level 1.3650 Previous Week High 1.3546. The Asian range is 1.3462 – 1.3497 SM used the news yesterday to effectively clear the entire 1.3389 – 1.3470 range by first removing the weak shorts and then the weak longs before making the real move upwards and stopping just short of the key 1.3500 level. SM has made a new high this morning but price is still trading below the high. After clearing such a wide range, SM will likely have taken out the traders trapped short and based on the broker’s platforms, net shorts are still more which means there is more upside. However, entering into the previous congestion breakout area will likely see some choppy price action as SM will likely clear the shorts in this level as well. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.3443 - 1.3435 and reverse to take out the weak shorts by spiking the key level 1.3500 retracing to take the breakout (long) trader’s stops then reverse again upward.
EU long levels: 1.3443, 1.3428, 1.3407, 1.3390 EU short levels: 1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3559, 1.3600
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (189pips) bull closing at the high on average vol>2days. The close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Fib38.2% @ 1.5708 (daily confluence with ema200 @ 1.5713) The Asian range is 1.6026 – 1.6063 SM used yesterday’s UK news to push price up and continued the rise all the way through. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.6025 – 1.6000 before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6000, 1.5980, 1.5952 GU short levels: 1.6100, 1.6120, 1.6180, 1.6200
Wednesday 13 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 13 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (97pips) bull closing off the high on vol>1day. The candle close suggests some selling/supply coming in but the volume suggests increased buying interest. Levels of interest: Last Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also last Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500, daily Fib50% (retracement from current swing low) @ 1.3559 and last Friday’s low 1.3317 Price managed to break the 1.3441 level but failed to close above it. The Asian range is 1.3429 – 1.3450 Broker platforms show that there are increased short positions. The short orders still sitting above make it tempting for SM to push up as “retracement”. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts by spiking yesterday’s high or maybe around 1.3476 (confluence with H1 ema200) then reverse and induce more shorts with selling pressure before reversing upwards at Asia low or lower.
EU long levels: 1.3421, 1.3400, 1.3365 EU short levels: 1.3455, 1.3476, 1.3500, 1.3510, 1.3559
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (159pips) bear closing ¼ off the low on average vol>1day. The close and volume suggests volume suggest buying activity price is likely to retest yesterday’s low which is the gap close level. A failure to close below may see price reverse upwards. Levels of interest: Fib38.2% @ 1.5708 (daily confluence with ema200 @ 1.5713) The Asian range is 1.5884 – 1.5906 SM used yesterday’s UK news to push price down to close the gap after which SM faded weak shorts by reversing upwards for 92pips before continuing the downward move. SM is already likely to have stocked up enough orders for the ride down to test yesterday’s low and possibly lower. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade more weak shorts to around 1.5925 – 1.5950 before reversing back downwards.
GU long levels: 1.5850, 1.5780, 1.5708, 1.5680 GU short levels: 1.5925, 1.5950, 1.6000, 1.6020, 1.6055
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (97pips) bull closing off the high on vol>1day. The candle close suggests some selling/supply coming in but the volume suggests increased buying interest. Levels of interest: Last Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also last Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500, daily Fib50% (retracement from current swing low) @ 1.3559 and last Friday’s low 1.3317 Price managed to break the 1.3441 level but failed to close above it. The Asian range is 1.3429 – 1.3450 Broker platforms show that there are increased short positions. The short orders still sitting above make it tempting for SM to push up as “retracement”. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts by spiking yesterday’s high or maybe around 1.3476 (confluence with H1 ema200) then reverse and induce more shorts with selling pressure before reversing upwards at Asia low or lower.
EU long levels: 1.3421, 1.3400, 1.3365 EU short levels: 1.3455, 1.3476, 1.3500, 1.3510, 1.3559
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (159pips) bear closing ¼ off the low on average vol>1day. The close and volume suggests volume suggest buying activity price is likely to retest yesterday’s low which is the gap close level. A failure to close below may see price reverse upwards. Levels of interest: Fib38.2% @ 1.5708 (daily confluence with ema200 @ 1.5713) The Asian range is 1.5884 – 1.5906 SM used yesterday’s UK news to push price down to close the gap after which SM faded weak shorts by reversing upwards for 92pips before continuing the downward move. SM is already likely to have stocked up enough orders for the ride down to test yesterday’s low and possibly lower. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade more weak shorts to around 1.5925 – 1.5950 before reversing back downwards.
GU long levels: 1.5850, 1.5780, 1.5708, 1.5680 GU short levels: 1.5925, 1.5950, 1.6000, 1.6020, 1.6055
Tuesday 12 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 12 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (71pips) bull closing off the high on vol<9days. The candle close suggests buying but the volume suggests no real buying interest. Levels of interest: Last Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also last Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500 78.6%Fib @ 1.3259 Friday low 1.3317 and Weekly low 1.3294 Nothing has really changed since yesterday. Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3381 – 1.3413 Yesterday’s price action suggests that price is likely to push to the upside. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs to 1.3365 or lower before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3365, 1.3344, 1.3317, 1.3294, 1.3260 EU short levels: 1.3448, 1.3467, 1.3500, 1.3510
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (56pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<4days. The close and volume suggest buying activity but with price not at any significant level, and with the background of the weekly candle, we can expect price to test the lows again. Levels of interest: Fib23.6% @ 1.5918 daily ema200 @ 1.5898 confluence with key level 1.5900 The Asian range is 1.5950 – 1.5991 SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs before reversing back upwards. We have a slew of UK news coming up so it will be best to let SM show their hand before taking any positions.
GU long levels: 1.5950, 1.5918, 1.5900 GU short levels: 1.6000, 1.6055, 1.6082, 1.6105
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (71pips) bull closing off the high on vol<9days. The candle close suggests buying but the volume suggests no real buying interest. Levels of interest: Last Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also last Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500 78.6%Fib @ 1.3259 Friday low 1.3317 and Weekly low 1.3294 Nothing has really changed since yesterday. Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3381 – 1.3413 Yesterday’s price action suggests that price is likely to push to the upside. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs to 1.3365 or lower before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3365, 1.3344, 1.3317, 1.3294, 1.3260 EU short levels: 1.3448, 1.3467, 1.3500, 1.3510
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (56pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<4days. The close and volume suggest buying activity but with price not at any significant level, and with the background of the weekly candle, we can expect price to test the lows again. Levels of interest: Fib23.6% @ 1.5918 daily ema200 @ 1.5898 confluence with key level 1.5900 The Asian range is 1.5950 – 1.5991 SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs before reversing back upwards. We have a slew of UK news coming up so it will be best to let SM show their hand before taking any positions.
GU long levels: 1.5950, 1.5918, 1.5900 GU short levels: 1.6000, 1.6055, 1.6082, 1.6105
Monday 11 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 11 Nov 2013
EU: Weekly: the candle is a below-average spread (252pips) bear wide-body spinning top closing ¼ off the low on above-average vol>13weeks. The candle close and volume suggests buying into the candle as price may be poised to retest the gap level of 1.3292 again. The Daily candle is a large spread (120pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests buying but with price being in no man’s land, it is unlikely to just reverse and take off upwards. Levels of interest: Last Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also last Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500 78.6%Fib @ 1.3259 Friday low 1.3317 and Weekly low 1.3294 Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3344 – 1.3366 SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts before reversing to test Friday’s low and perhaps even the gap level of 1.3294
EU long levels: 1.3294, 1.3260 EU short levels: 1.3448, 1.3467, 1.3500, 1.3510
GU: Weekly- the candle is a below-average spread (202pips) bull closing ½ off the high on below-average vol <1week. The candle close and volume suggest selling and more downside. The Daily candle is a very large spread (149pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on very high vol<1day. The close and volume suggest buying activity as price moved towards the daily demand level 1.5920 Price opened with a small gap down that has been closed. The Asian range is 1.5998 – 1.6020 SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade the weak shorts before reversing downwards.
GU long levels: 1.5975, 1.5956 GU short levels: 1.6055, 1.6082, 1.6105
EU: Weekly: the candle is a below-average spread (252pips) bear wide-body spinning top closing ¼ off the low on above-average vol>13weeks. The candle close and volume suggests buying into the candle as price may be poised to retest the gap level of 1.3292 again. The Daily candle is a large spread (120pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests buying but with price being in no man’s land, it is unlikely to just reverse and take off upwards. Levels of interest: Last Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also last Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500 78.6%Fib @ 1.3259 Friday low 1.3317 and Weekly low 1.3294 Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3344 – 1.3366 SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts before reversing to test Friday’s low and perhaps even the gap level of 1.3294
EU long levels: 1.3294, 1.3260 EU short levels: 1.3448, 1.3467, 1.3500, 1.3510
GU: Weekly- the candle is a below-average spread (202pips) bull closing ½ off the high on below-average vol <1week. The candle close and volume suggest selling and more downside. The Daily candle is a very large spread (149pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on very high vol<1day. The close and volume suggest buying activity as price moved towards the daily demand level 1.5920 Price opened with a small gap down that has been closed. The Asian range is 1.5998 – 1.6020 SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade the weak shorts before reversing downwards.
GU long levels: 1.5975, 1.5956 GU short levels: 1.6055, 1.6082, 1.6105
Friday 8 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 8 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a very large spread (234pips) bear pin bar closing 1/2 off the low on ultrahigh vol>70days. Levels of interest: Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500 78.6%Fib @ 1.3259 The Asian range is 1.3405 – 1.3424 The unlikely triple-act of the ECB rate cut, US GDP and Yen strength caused the EU to tank and later to retrace significantly. Although the daily candle close and volume suggests more upside, the fundamental news of the ECB would likely weigh on the EU. With NDP later today and optimistic numbers expected, EU is likely to head south. SM has already tested the 1.3441 Monday low and is likely to retest it again. Likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to retest the 1.3448 retracement high yesterday but there will be orders further up and SM may just go higher if they want more inventory for the ride down.
EU long levels: 1.3294, 1.3260 EU short levels: 1.3448, 1.3467, 1.3500, 1.3510
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (105pips) bull hanging man closing just off the high on very high vol>59days, the close and volume suggest selling as price also failed to test yesterday’s high. The Asian range is 1.6076 – 1.6101 Yesterday’s price action saw a strong push downward in synch with the ECB rate decision and US GDP, however, it did not just retrace the entire move but even went back all the way to nearly test the previous day high. This price action either suggests that the way down has been cleared and the movement back up is an inventory resupply exercise or that the inventory resupply was at the lows and price is set to go higher. Given that price is close to the TR breakout level of 1.6120 the daily hanging man shown has credibility but being Friday NFP, one has to be mindful of possible wild swings like yesterday. From a price action perspective, 1.6105 looks like the level where long traders are trapped. SM is likely to create buying pressure to Asia high or higher before revesing.
GU long levels: 1.6055 GU short levels: 1.6105, 1.6130, 1.6150, 1.6170, 1.6200
EU: The Daily candle is a very large spread (234pips) bear pin bar closing 1/2 off the low on ultrahigh vol>70days. Levels of interest: Monday’s low @ 1.3441 daily 50%Fib @ 1.3467 (also Wed Asia low) key level 1.3500 78.6%Fib @ 1.3259 The Asian range is 1.3405 – 1.3424 The unlikely triple-act of the ECB rate cut, US GDP and Yen strength caused the EU to tank and later to retrace significantly. Although the daily candle close and volume suggests more upside, the fundamental news of the ECB would likely weigh on the EU. With NDP later today and optimistic numbers expected, EU is likely to head south. SM has already tested the 1.3441 Monday low and is likely to retest it again. Likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to retest the 1.3448 retracement high yesterday but there will be orders further up and SM may just go higher if they want more inventory for the ride down.
EU long levels: 1.3294, 1.3260 EU short levels: 1.3448, 1.3467, 1.3500, 1.3510
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (105pips) bull hanging man closing just off the high on very high vol>59days, the close and volume suggest selling as price also failed to test yesterday’s high. The Asian range is 1.6076 – 1.6101 Yesterday’s price action saw a strong push downward in synch with the ECB rate decision and US GDP, however, it did not just retrace the entire move but even went back all the way to nearly test the previous day high. This price action either suggests that the way down has been cleared and the movement back up is an inventory resupply exercise or that the inventory resupply was at the lows and price is set to go higher. Given that price is close to the TR breakout level of 1.6120 the daily hanging man shown has credibility but being Friday NFP, one has to be mindful of possible wild swings like yesterday. From a price action perspective, 1.6105 looks like the level where long traders are trapped. SM is likely to create buying pressure to Asia high or higher before revesing.
GU long levels: 1.6055 GU short levels: 1.6105, 1.6130, 1.6150, 1.6170, 1.6200
Thursday 7 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 7 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (79pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on below average vol<1day. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3500 – 1.3523 (still within yesterday’s high). Looks very clear that SM has the low level shorts well and truly trapped and are poised to push further upward (see yesterday’s review for the reasoning). SM has already bounced off the 1.3500 key level and pushing upwards, this will likely end with them expanding the Asia high even upto yesterday’s high before reversing to create selling pressure to fade weak longs and induce more “low level” shorts, possibly to Asia low or slightly below to take out the weak longs that have already moved to breakeven before reversing upwards to continue the expected retracement. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3500, 1.3487.
EU long levels: 1.3500, 1.3487, 1.3477, 1.3451 EU short levels: 1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (76pips) bull closing ½ off the high on below average vol<1day, the close suggests some slowing of buying as it broke and closed above yesterday’s high but there is daily bearish volume divergence as price tested the previous TR breakout level of 1.6120. The Asian range is 1.6064 – 1.6085 With price already making >200pips from the swing low, and daily bearish divergence in place, a short at yesterday’s high is a possibility but with both the Euro and UK interest rate decisions due out, it will be an opportunity for SM to push to the 1.6150 – 1.6170 level to grab stops before reversing. SM has come close to the daily breakout level of 1.6061 during Asia and moving upward to fade weak shorts, likely to around 1.6095 – 1.6100 where they may reverse to fade the weak longs and induce more shorts by creating selling pressure before the news.
GU long levels: 1.6050, 1.6040, 1.6018, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6100, 1.6130, 1.6150, 1.6170, 1.6200
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (79pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on below average vol<1day. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3500 – 1.3523 (still within yesterday’s high). Looks very clear that SM has the low level shorts well and truly trapped and are poised to push further upward (see yesterday’s review for the reasoning). SM has already bounced off the 1.3500 key level and pushing upwards, this will likely end with them expanding the Asia high even upto yesterday’s high before reversing to create selling pressure to fade weak longs and induce more “low level” shorts, possibly to Asia low or slightly below to take out the weak longs that have already moved to breakeven before reversing upwards to continue the expected retracement. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3500, 1.3487.
EU long levels: 1.3500, 1.3487, 1.3477, 1.3451 EU short levels: 1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (76pips) bull closing ½ off the high on below average vol<1day, the close suggests some slowing of buying as it broke and closed above yesterday’s high but there is daily bearish volume divergence as price tested the previous TR breakout level of 1.6120. The Asian range is 1.6064 – 1.6085 With price already making >200pips from the swing low, and daily bearish divergence in place, a short at yesterday’s high is a possibility but with both the Euro and UK interest rate decisions due out, it will be an opportunity for SM to push to the 1.6150 – 1.6170 level to grab stops before reversing. SM has come close to the daily breakout level of 1.6061 during Asia and moving upward to fade weak shorts, likely to around 1.6095 – 1.6100 where they may reverse to fade the weak longs and induce more shorts by creating selling pressure before the news.
GU long levels: 1.6050, 1.6040, 1.6018, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6100, 1.6130, 1.6150, 1.6170, 1.6200
Wednesday 6 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 6 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (72pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on below average vol>1day. The candle close and the volume suggests buying interest. It is likely that the yesterday’s low 1.3448 will be untested. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3467 – 1.3520 (still within yesterday’s high). SM is likely to create selling pressure after just failing to break yesterday’s high to fade weak longs and induce “low level” shorts, possibly to Asia low before reversing upwards for the expected retracement. The low level shorts are likely those who missed the large down-move and believe that getting a good price now will get them back in the “downtrend” since they are not selling at the absolute low. However if SM has held price above 1.3448 and never tested Friday’s low of 1.3441, it is likely that they have already a significant value of orders locked at that level and will not be releasing the trapped traders therefore a continuation of that downtrend is improbable. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3477 (breakout of congestion level), although a retest of 1.3460 – 1.3451 is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3477, 1.3451, 1.3441 EU short levels: 1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (114pips) bull closing off the high on below average vol>1day, the close and volume suggests more upside and it has already broken yesterday’s high. The Asian range is 1.6040 – 1.6094 The retracement upward has started, fuelled by yesterday’s good UK news. SM is likely to fade the weak longs and induce shorts by creating selling pressure as price tests the 1.6100 level before reversing back into the retracement northward.
GU long levels: 1.6060, 1.6040, 1.6018, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6130, 1.6180, 1.6200
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (72pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on below average vol>1day. The candle close and the volume suggests buying interest. It is likely that the yesterday’s low 1.3448 will be untested. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3467 – 1.3520 (still within yesterday’s high). SM is likely to create selling pressure after just failing to break yesterday’s high to fade weak longs and induce “low level” shorts, possibly to Asia low before reversing upwards for the expected retracement. The low level shorts are likely those who missed the large down-move and believe that getting a good price now will get them back in the “downtrend” since they are not selling at the absolute low. However if SM has held price above 1.3448 and never tested Friday’s low of 1.3441, it is likely that they have already a significant value of orders locked at that level and will not be releasing the trapped traders therefore a continuation of that downtrend is improbable. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3477 (breakout of congestion level), although a retest of 1.3460 – 1.3451 is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3477, 1.3451, 1.3441 EU short levels: 1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (114pips) bull closing off the high on below average vol>1day, the close and volume suggests more upside and it has already broken yesterday’s high. The Asian range is 1.6040 – 1.6094 The retracement upward has started, fuelled by yesterday’s good UK news. SM is likely to fade the weak longs and induce shorts by creating selling pressure as price tests the 1.6100 level before reversing back into the retracement northward.
GU long levels: 1.6060, 1.6040, 1.6018, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6130, 1.6180, 1.6200
Tuesday 5 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 5 Nov 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (82pips) bull reverse upthrust closing off the high on below average vol<4days. The candle close suggests buying but the volume suggests no buying interest. Since the reverse upthrust occurred after stops were taken below 1.3461 which was a significant support level. If price is going to retrace from this level, I would not expect price to go lower than 1.3441 which is also the current week low. Unchanged Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3490 – 1.3521 SM is likely to fade weak longs but creating selling pressure before reversing upwards. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3477, 1.3451
EU long levels: 1.3477, 1.3451, 1.3441 EU short levels: 1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (75pips) bull closing off the high on vol<4days, the close suggests more upside but the volume suggests a lack of demand. Levels of interest: LOW 1.5902, 1.5925 week open, Daily 50%Fib @ 1.5842, Gap close @ 1.5872 The Asian range is 1.5953 – 1.5981 The likely SM move seeing as the range is still relatively tight may well be to drop from Asia high to induce shorts, test the current lows and reverse for the retracement long and take out weak shorts. Broker platforms are still net short which makes the likely food chain for SM to the upside.
GU long levels: 1.5940, 1.5925, 1.5902, 1.5860, 1.5835 GU short levels: 1.6005, 1.6025, 1.6075, 1.6100
EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (82pips) bull reverse upthrust closing off the high on below average vol<4days. The candle close suggests buying but the volume suggests no buying interest. Since the reverse upthrust occurred after stops were taken below 1.3461 which was a significant support level. If price is going to retrace from this level, I would not expect price to go lower than 1.3441 which is also the current week low. Unchanged Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3490 – 1.3521 SM is likely to fade weak longs but creating selling pressure before reversing upwards. Possible manipulation level for potential reversal 1.3477, 1.3451
EU long levels: 1.3477, 1.3451, 1.3441 EU short levels: 1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (75pips) bull closing off the high on vol<4days, the close suggests more upside but the volume suggests a lack of demand. Levels of interest: LOW 1.5902, 1.5925 week open, Daily 50%Fib @ 1.5842, Gap close @ 1.5872 The Asian range is 1.5953 – 1.5981 The likely SM move seeing as the range is still relatively tight may well be to drop from Asia high to induce shorts, test the current lows and reverse for the retracement long and take out weak shorts. Broker platforms are still net short which makes the likely food chain for SM to the upside.
GU long levels: 1.5940, 1.5925, 1.5902, 1.5860, 1.5835 GU short levels: 1.6005, 1.6025, 1.6075, 1.6100
Monday 4 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 4 Nov 2013
EU: Weekly: The candle is a large spread (338pips) bear closing just off the low on vol>5weeks, the close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (109pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol<1day and the candle close and volume also suggests more downside. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3441 – 1.3501 SM has actually broken the 1.3461 level and taken stops about 20pips lower but failed to close below it, instead closing with a H1/H4 bullish volume divergence. As the 1.3461 is a significant level of support, this may well be a possible retracement upward before any further downward movement. It is also likely that after a straight drop of >300pips, it will be time for SM to remove the weaker shorts even if they want to push further south. SM has already induced shorts past Friday’s low and the likely move today will be to create selling pressure from Asia high to induce shorts again before reversing at the low to retrace and fade the weak shorts.
EU long levels: 1.3441 EU short levels: 1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: Weekly: the candle is a normal spread (300pips) bear closing just off the low on below average vol >3weeks. The close suggests more downside but the volume seems to indicate reducing selling intent. The Daily candle is a large spread (138pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<3days, the close suggests more downside but the volume suggests a lack of supply. Technicals: Daily 50%Fib @ 1.5842, Gap close @ 1.5872 The Asian range is 1.5902 – 1.5939 Price has also broken below Friday’s low but failed to close below. H4 also closed with bullish volume divergence earlier. While price may actually test the current low and retrace upwards, there is also the possibility of one more downward push to take the long gap traders’ stops before that since it is well within reach. Ultimately this business is about where SM can get their hands on orders to fulfill their targets. The likely SM move seeing as the range is still relatively tight may well be to drop from Asia high to induce shorts, test the current low or further to close the gap and reverse for the retracement long and take out weak shorts.
GU long levels: 1.5860, 1.5835 GU short levels: 1.6005, 1.6025, 1.6075, 1.6100
EU: Weekly: The candle is a large spread (338pips) bear closing just off the low on vol>5weeks, the close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (109pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol<1day and the candle close and volume also suggests more downside. Technicals: daily 38.2%Fib @1.35971 50%Fib @ 1.3612 The Asian range is 1.3441 – 1.3501 SM has actually broken the 1.3461 level and taken stops about 20pips lower but failed to close below it, instead closing with a H1/H4 bullish volume divergence. As the 1.3461 is a significant level of support, this may well be a possible retracement upward before any further downward movement. It is also likely that after a straight drop of >300pips, it will be time for SM to remove the weaker shorts even if they want to push further south. SM has already induced shorts past Friday’s low and the likely move today will be to create selling pressure from Asia high to induce shorts again before reversing at the low to retrace and fade the weak shorts.
EU long levels: 1.3441 EU short levels: 1.3545, 1.3597, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: Weekly: the candle is a normal spread (300pips) bear closing just off the low on below average vol >3weeks. The close suggests more downside but the volume seems to indicate reducing selling intent. The Daily candle is a large spread (138pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<3days, the close suggests more downside but the volume suggests a lack of supply. Technicals: Daily 50%Fib @ 1.5842, Gap close @ 1.5872 The Asian range is 1.5902 – 1.5939 Price has also broken below Friday’s low but failed to close below. H4 also closed with bullish volume divergence earlier. While price may actually test the current low and retrace upwards, there is also the possibility of one more downward push to take the long gap traders’ stops before that since it is well within reach. Ultimately this business is about where SM can get their hands on orders to fulfill their targets. The likely SM move seeing as the range is still relatively tight may well be to drop from Asia high to induce shorts, test the current low or further to close the gap and reverse for the retracement long and take out weak shorts.
GU long levels: 1.5860, 1.5835 GU short levels: 1.6005, 1.6025, 1.6075, 1.6100
Friday 1 November 2013
DAILY REVIEW 1 Nov 2013
EU: Monthly: the candle closed as a small spread (359pips) bull upthrust with a long wick to the top on below average vol >1month with bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a large spread (164pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol>30days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.3539 – 1.3588 Technicals: Daily ema50 @ 1.3525 confluence with Daily Fib 38.2% @ 1.3553, Daily 50% Fib @1.3467 confluence with swing low 1.3461 on 25 Sep 2013. If 1.3461 is broken with a H1/H4 close below, the next demand level is the 1.3351 which is also the gap open level on 16 Sep 2013. Before this level, we have the Oct low of 1.3472 which may also be a manipulation level for SM. With Greece back on the agenda and the FED insisting that tapering is not off the table, EU sold off in volume confirming the pent up weekly and daily bearish volume divergences that were seen. Now we must know that SM does not drive huge volume, SM will step in as prices reach a clear level of demand/support. Although we have very high daily climatic volume, we have not seen stopping volume yet and today being a Friday, we may just see price test and find the reversal level or the next trading range (TR) before the next move, whether a continuation lower or a retest upward. Today will likely see a formation of the new TR before the next move. As EU has moved substantially, it will also be natural for SM to restock for moves in either direction. Being Friday and with no NFP today, I don’t expect the same kind of move as yesterday but what is probable will be for price to test the 1.3500 key level which is well within reach. With the negative sentiment over Europe, SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to induce even more shorts to Asia low or lower before reversing upwards to leave these folks trapped over the weekend.
EU long levels: 1.3539, 1.3525, 1.3500, 1.3472, 1.3461 EU short levels: 1.3590, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: Monthly: the candle is small spread (367pips) bear closing off the low on below average vol >1month. The close is just above the monthly ema50 1.6017 and the candle close and volume suggests no selling interest and perhaps even hints at a possible retest of the highs. The Daily candle is a small spread (63pips) bull near-doji closing on very high vol>9days.The candle close and volume suggests buying and possible stalling for a move back up. Technicals: Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.5941 confluence with Daily ema50 @ 1.5940 The Asian range is 1.6015 – 1.6045, pretty much the same as yesterday so we know that this is a range for either accumulation or redistribution. Yesterday’s price action saw SM pick up stops below the 1.6000 key level down to 1.5997 and although the daily close and volume suggests a slowing of the selling, price is nowhere near a significant demand level and is likely to push further downward to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure in tandem with EU before reversing to trap the low level shorts over the weekend.
GU long levels: 1.6000, 1.5941, 1.5920, 1.5900 GU short levels: 1.6075, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: Monthly: the candle closed as a small spread (359pips) bull upthrust with a long wick to the top on below average vol >1month with bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a large spread (164pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol>30days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.3539 – 1.3588 Technicals: Daily ema50 @ 1.3525 confluence with Daily Fib 38.2% @ 1.3553, Daily 50% Fib @1.3467 confluence with swing low 1.3461 on 25 Sep 2013. If 1.3461 is broken with a H1/H4 close below, the next demand level is the 1.3351 which is also the gap open level on 16 Sep 2013. Before this level, we have the Oct low of 1.3472 which may also be a manipulation level for SM. With Greece back on the agenda and the FED insisting that tapering is not off the table, EU sold off in volume confirming the pent up weekly and daily bearish volume divergences that were seen. Now we must know that SM does not drive huge volume, SM will step in as prices reach a clear level of demand/support. Although we have very high daily climatic volume, we have not seen stopping volume yet and today being a Friday, we may just see price test and find the reversal level or the next trading range (TR) before the next move, whether a continuation lower or a retest upward. Today will likely see a formation of the new TR before the next move. As EU has moved substantially, it will also be natural for SM to restock for moves in either direction. Being Friday and with no NFP today, I don’t expect the same kind of move as yesterday but what is probable will be for price to test the 1.3500 key level which is well within reach. With the negative sentiment over Europe, SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to induce even more shorts to Asia low or lower before reversing upwards to leave these folks trapped over the weekend.
EU long levels: 1.3539, 1.3525, 1.3500, 1.3472, 1.3461 EU short levels: 1.3590, 1.3620, 1.3650
GU: Monthly: the candle is small spread (367pips) bear closing off the low on below average vol >1month. The close is just above the monthly ema50 1.6017 and the candle close and volume suggests no selling interest and perhaps even hints at a possible retest of the highs. The Daily candle is a small spread (63pips) bull near-doji closing on very high vol>9days.The candle close and volume suggests buying and possible stalling for a move back up. Technicals: Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.5941 confluence with Daily ema50 @ 1.5940 The Asian range is 1.6015 – 1.6045, pretty much the same as yesterday so we know that this is a range for either accumulation or redistribution. Yesterday’s price action saw SM pick up stops below the 1.6000 key level down to 1.5997 and although the daily close and volume suggests a slowing of the selling, price is nowhere near a significant demand level and is likely to push further downward to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure in tandem with EU before reversing to trap the low level shorts over the weekend.
GU long levels: 1.6000, 1.5941, 1.5920, 1.5900 GU short levels: 1.6075, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
Thursday 31 October 2013
DAILY REVIEW 31 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (89pips) bear narrow-body spinning top on high vol<1days. The candle close and volume suggests buying interest and a possible slowing of the selling momentum. The Asian range is 1.3688 – 1.3738 Yesterday I wrote “Levels of interest for a possible short before FOMC would be 1.3775 (price has rotated around this level several times) “ and FOMC price action yesterday saw SM spike up to grab stops to 1.3783 before reversing sharply downwards. SM is likely to create selling pressure from around the Asia high to induce even more shorts before fading these traders by reversing upward to confirm the buying that was started yesterday. A failure to close below 1.3650 will likely see price re-accumulate (or chop around) in a range for a few days before pushing back up to test supply levels again.
EU long levels: 1.3670, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3765, 1.3783, 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (80pips) bear narrow-body spinning top closing on high vol<1days.The candle close and volume suggests buying and possible stalling for a move back up. The Asian range is 1.6004 – 1.6042. Yesterday’s price action saw SM pick up stops below the 1.6000 key level down to 1.5997 and although the daily close and volume suggests a slowing of the selling, price is nowhere near a significant demand level and is likely to push further downward to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 Bearing in mind that the short orders sitting above are still very much for the taking by SM, news permitting. SM is likely to create buying pressure before reversing downward to test the daily demand levels.
GU long levels: 1.6000, 1.5920, 1.5900 GU short levels: 1.6065, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (89pips) bear narrow-body spinning top on high vol<1days. The candle close and volume suggests buying interest and a possible slowing of the selling momentum. The Asian range is 1.3688 – 1.3738 Yesterday I wrote “Levels of interest for a possible short before FOMC would be 1.3775 (price has rotated around this level several times) “ and FOMC price action yesterday saw SM spike up to grab stops to 1.3783 before reversing sharply downwards. SM is likely to create selling pressure from around the Asia high to induce even more shorts before fading these traders by reversing upward to confirm the buying that was started yesterday. A failure to close below 1.3650 will likely see price re-accumulate (or chop around) in a range for a few days before pushing back up to test supply levels again.
EU long levels: 1.3670, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3765, 1.3783, 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (80pips) bear narrow-body spinning top closing on high vol<1days.The candle close and volume suggests buying and possible stalling for a move back up. The Asian range is 1.6004 – 1.6042. Yesterday’s price action saw SM pick up stops below the 1.6000 key level down to 1.5997 and although the daily close and volume suggests a slowing of the selling, price is nowhere near a significant demand level and is likely to push further downward to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 Bearing in mind that the short orders sitting above are still very much for the taking by SM, news permitting. SM is likely to create buying pressure before reversing downward to test the daily demand levels.
GU long levels: 1.6000, 1.5920, 1.5900 GU short levels: 1.6065, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
Wednesday 30 October 2013
DAILY REVIEW 30 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (77pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.3732 – 1.749 and not done yet. Price action yesterday saw SM spike up to grab stops above 1.3800 on poor US news and it looks like the correction has begun as price has closed below the daily congestion level low of 1.3741 With the FOMC coming up later, we can expect SM to do their thing again whipping price around as there are no clear levels to long and SM is not actually going to hand us a nice beautiful short level unless they first convince us that it is going up. Based on the current structure, the levels of interest for a potential long would be 1.3710 (previous month high), 1.3700 key level, Daily demand level 1.3650 – 1.3675 confluence with daily Fib23.6% @ 1.3660 Levels of interest for a possible short before FOMC would be 1.3775 (price has rotated around this level several times) and 1.3800 key level as well as the higher supply levels. FOMC has the impact to change sentiment and with the perspective of the current monthly chart showing a slightly increased buying activity (current and may change based on FOMC), it would not surprise me if prices push back all the way up before the correction. SM is likely to create selling pressure from around the Asia high to induce even more shorts before fading these traders by reversing upward into a stall before the FOMC. If the lower long levels are reached, the trades are likely retracement-type trades but if the drop is shallow, we may expect a test of the higher supply levels. This is not impossible given the recent US government shutdown possibly being the excuse to delay the reeling in of QE, especially if they mention dates that are further than anticipated.
EU long levels: 1.3732, 1.3710, 1.3700, 1.3670, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (122pips) bear closing near the low on high vol>7days.The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Price has a daily close below the daily Fib23.6% and looks set to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 Previously, price went below to 1.5920 and spiked below as well so the level is not as clear as it could be. The Asian range is 1.6023 – 1.6056. Enough said about the FOMC, it will affect GU in much the same way. There are still significant orders piled above so it may tempt SM to smash and grab some if the news permits. SM has created some kind of a “support” level and created buying pressure to induce more shorts but this is likely to be a reload strategy prior to the FOMC news.
GU long levels: 1.6000, 1.5920, 1.5900 GU short levels: 1.6065, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (77pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Asian range is 1.3732 – 1.749 and not done yet. Price action yesterday saw SM spike up to grab stops above 1.3800 on poor US news and it looks like the correction has begun as price has closed below the daily congestion level low of 1.3741 With the FOMC coming up later, we can expect SM to do their thing again whipping price around as there are no clear levels to long and SM is not actually going to hand us a nice beautiful short level unless they first convince us that it is going up. Based on the current structure, the levels of interest for a potential long would be 1.3710 (previous month high), 1.3700 key level, Daily demand level 1.3650 – 1.3675 confluence with daily Fib23.6% @ 1.3660 Levels of interest for a possible short before FOMC would be 1.3775 (price has rotated around this level several times) and 1.3800 key level as well as the higher supply levels. FOMC has the impact to change sentiment and with the perspective of the current monthly chart showing a slightly increased buying activity (current and may change based on FOMC), it would not surprise me if prices push back all the way up before the correction. SM is likely to create selling pressure from around the Asia high to induce even more shorts before fading these traders by reversing upward into a stall before the FOMC. If the lower long levels are reached, the trades are likely retracement-type trades but if the drop is shallow, we may expect a test of the higher supply levels. This is not impossible given the recent US government shutdown possibly being the excuse to delay the reeling in of QE, especially if they mention dates that are further than anticipated.
EU long levels: 1.3732, 1.3710, 1.3700, 1.3670, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (122pips) bear closing near the low on high vol>7days.The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Price has a daily close below the daily Fib23.6% and looks set to test the Fib38.2% @ 1.5940 confluence with daily ema50 @ 1.5932 Previously, price went below to 1.5920 and spiked below as well so the level is not as clear as it could be. The Asian range is 1.6023 – 1.6056. Enough said about the FOMC, it will affect GU in much the same way. There are still significant orders piled above so it may tempt SM to smash and grab some if the news permits. SM has created some kind of a “support” level and created buying pressure to induce more shorts but this is likely to be a reload strategy prior to the FOMC news.
GU long levels: 1.6000, 1.5920, 1.5900 GU short levels: 1.6065, 1.6100, 1.6120 (previous breakout level), 1.6142, 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
Tuesday 29 October 2013
DAILY REVIEW 29 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (43pips) bear spinning top on low vol<4days. The candle close suggests that there may be a bit more downside but the volume suggests no selling pressure. The Asian range is 1.3768 – 1.793 and remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 Yesterday saw SM absorb shorts to slightly above the 1.3800 key level. Broker platforms continue to show high levels of open short positions, the closest orders will all be north-bound and on the way to the supply at 1.3860 SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce even more shorts before reversing upward possibly to test yesterday’s high and also maybe push higher to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3768, 1.3743 EU short levels: 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (84pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<4days.The candle close and volume suggests that there no selling interest. The Asian range is 1.6063 – 1.6143. SM has been inducing shorts the whole day. Probable SM move will be to reverse and create buying pressure to fade the weak short about the 1.6180 and then chop around before news determines their next move. The likely move is still upwards owing to the stacks of orders piled on from above.
GU long levels: 1.6085, 1.6010, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (43pips) bear spinning top on low vol<4days. The candle close suggests that there may be a bit more downside but the volume suggests no selling pressure. The Asian range is 1.3768 – 1.793 and remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 Yesterday saw SM absorb shorts to slightly above the 1.3800 key level. Broker platforms continue to show high levels of open short positions, the closest orders will all be north-bound and on the way to the supply at 1.3860 SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce even more shorts before reversing upward possibly to test yesterday’s high and also maybe push higher to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3768, 1.3743 EU short levels: 1.3808, 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (84pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<4days.The candle close and volume suggests that there no selling interest. The Asian range is 1.6063 – 1.6143. SM has been inducing shorts the whole day. Probable SM move will be to reverse and create buying pressure to fade the weak short about the 1.6180 and then chop around before news determines their next move. The likely move is still upwards owing to the stacks of orders piled on from above.
GU long levels: 1.6085, 1.6010, 1.6000 GU short levels: 1.6200, 1.6220, 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
Monday 28 October 2013
DAILY REVIEW 28 Oct 2013
EU: Weekly: the candle is a below-average spread (181pips) bull wide-body spinning top closing off the highs on low vol<3days with bearish volume divergence visible. The Daily candle is a below-average spread (58pips) doji with equal up/down wicks on vol<1days with continued bearish volume divergence.
Price opened with a small gap up and the Asian range is 1.3799 – 1.3817 Nothing has changed from last week as price remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 The month high 1.3870 (Nov 2011) is significant. Broker platforms continue to show open short positions at an extreme. We also have a weekly and daily bearish volume divergence in place now so we can expect to see indicative “topping” price action soon. SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce even more shorts before reversing upward possibly to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3778, 1.3763, 1.3743 EU short levels: 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: Weekly: the candle is a small spread (141pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<1week. The Daily candle is a normal spread (96pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<1day.The candle close and volume suggests that there no selling interest. Market opened with a small gap up and has cince closed. The Asian range is 1.6166 – 1.6188. Broker platforms also reveal that open short positions have increased. As the food chain continues to be to the north, potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) Probable SM move will be to create buying pressure to about the 1.62000 key level and then reverse back downward to accumulate orders for the long before reversing to test the highs.
GU long levels: 1.6166, 1.6150, 1.6137 GU short levels: 1.6200, 1.6220 (London possibly), 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: Weekly: the candle is a below-average spread (181pips) bull wide-body spinning top closing off the highs on low vol<3days with bearish volume divergence visible. The Daily candle is a below-average spread (58pips) doji with equal up/down wicks on vol<1days with continued bearish volume divergence.
Price opened with a small gap up and the Asian range is 1.3799 – 1.3817 Nothing has changed from last week as price remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 The month high 1.3870 (Nov 2011) is significant. Broker platforms continue to show open short positions at an extreme. We also have a weekly and daily bearish volume divergence in place now so we can expect to see indicative “topping” price action soon. SM is likely to create selling pressure to induce even more shorts before reversing upward possibly to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 will likely see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3778, 1.3763, 1.3743 EU short levels: 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: Weekly: the candle is a small spread (141pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol<1week. The Daily candle is a normal spread (96pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<1day.The candle close and volume suggests that there no selling interest. Market opened with a small gap up and has cince closed. The Asian range is 1.6166 – 1.6188. Broker platforms also reveal that open short positions have increased. As the food chain continues to be to the north, potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) Probable SM move will be to create buying pressure to about the 1.62000 key level and then reverse back downward to accumulate orders for the long before reversing to test the highs.
GU long levels: 1.6166, 1.6150, 1.6137 GU short levels: 1.6200, 1.6220 (London possibly), 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
Friday 25 October 2013
DAILY REVIEW 25 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bull spinning top closing off the high on increased vol>4days with continued bearish volume divergence and the Asian range is 1.3784 – 1.3831 at the moment, price has broken but failed to close above yesterday’s high. Yesterday’s close and volume suggests possible topping out is coming. Price remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 A significant level is the month high 1.3870 (Nov 2011). TR is 1.3763 – 1.3831 A continued daily bearish volume divergence is in place and may give a possible reversal at or near current levels. Today is Friday so we can expect that SM will want to reverse direction of the past week to book profits so they will likely want to keep the bulls piling in. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure especially after throwing 2 pins to the high on H1 to induce shorts, keep the upward move, maybe make one last push to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3763, 1.3743, 1.3726 EU short levels: 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (85pips) bull spinning top closing about ¼ off the high on increased vol>4days.The candle close and volume suggests that there was buying into the candle so further upside is possible. The Asian range is 1.6178 – 1.6245. SM has been busy taking out the weak short from the herd as they kept piling in short positions. Price may test and break the high, if so, potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) Probable SM move will be to create selling pressure to re-induce shorts and then reverse to test the highs.
GU long levels: 1.6180, 1.6160, 1.6137 GU short levels: 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bull spinning top closing off the high on increased vol>4days with continued bearish volume divergence and the Asian range is 1.3784 – 1.3831 at the moment, price has broken but failed to close above yesterday’s high. Yesterday’s close and volume suggests possible topping out is coming. Price remains within the daily congestion level approximately 1.3741 – 1.3866 A significant level is the month high 1.3870 (Nov 2011). TR is 1.3763 – 1.3831 A continued daily bearish volume divergence is in place and may give a possible reversal at or near current levels. Today is Friday so we can expect that SM will want to reverse direction of the past week to book profits so they will likely want to keep the bulls piling in. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure especially after throwing 2 pins to the high on H1 to induce shorts, keep the upward move, maybe make one last push to around the month high of 1.3860 - 1.3880 to take stops and drop for a reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3741 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3763, 1.3743, 1.3726 EU short levels: 1.3865, 1.3900
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (85pips) bull spinning top closing about ¼ off the high on increased vol>4days.The candle close and volume suggests that there was buying into the candle so further upside is possible. The Asian range is 1.6178 – 1.6245. SM has been busy taking out the weak short from the herd as they kept piling in short positions. Price may test and break the high, if so, potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) Probable SM move will be to create selling pressure to re-induce shorts and then reverse to test the highs.
GU long levels: 1.6180, 1.6160, 1.6137 GU short levels: 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
Thursday 24 October 2013
DAILY REVIEW 24 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (52pips) bear almost-dragonfly doji closing off the low on vol>3days with continued bearish volume divergence. The close and volume suggests possible topping out. Price remains in the same level as yesterday i.e. daily congestion level approximately 1.3766 – 1.3866 Of significance is month high 1.3870 (Nov 2011) The Asian range is 1.3773 – 1.3787 at the moment. TR is 1.3726 – 1.3792 As anticipated, SM faded a lot of weak longs yesterday and after that reversed and retested the high and made a new high. SM is likely to be eyeing orders above the 1.3800 key level to load inventory before reversing downward. A continued daily bearish volume divergence is in place and may give a possible reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3726 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3773, 1.3743, 1.3726 (pre-London, London) EU short levels: 1.3792, 1.3800, 1.3860
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (137pips) bear closing about ¼ off the low on vol>3days.The candle close and volume suggests that there was buying into the candle so further upside to test the week high and possibly even higher prices may still be possible. The Asian range is 1.6161 – 1.6201 (and still going). SM took out many weak longs in one move yesterday wiping out all the NFP long traders who did not take profits and the likely SM move today is to fade weak shorts through London retest the day high at least. The possible levels where price might pause and reverse could be 1.6226 (breakout), 1.6247 (Tue high), 1.6255 (yesterday’s high). Broker platforms report that net-short positions in this pair have increased which means the food chain for SM is upward. If price breaks the high, potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013)
GU long levels: 1.6161, 1.6118 GU short levels: 1.6226, 1.6247, 1.6255, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (52pips) bear almost-dragonfly doji closing off the low on vol>3days with continued bearish volume divergence. The close and volume suggests possible topping out. Price remains in the same level as yesterday i.e. daily congestion level approximately 1.3766 – 1.3866 Of significance is month high 1.3870 (Nov 2011) The Asian range is 1.3773 – 1.3787 at the moment. TR is 1.3726 – 1.3792 As anticipated, SM faded a lot of weak longs yesterday and after that reversed and retested the high and made a new high. SM is likely to be eyeing orders above the 1.3800 key level to load inventory before reversing downward. A continued daily bearish volume divergence is in place and may give a possible reversal. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3726 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3773, 1.3743, 1.3726 (pre-London, London) EU short levels: 1.3792, 1.3800, 1.3860
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (137pips) bear closing about ¼ off the low on vol>3days.The candle close and volume suggests that there was buying into the candle so further upside to test the week high and possibly even higher prices may still be possible. The Asian range is 1.6161 – 1.6201 (and still going). SM took out many weak longs in one move yesterday wiping out all the NFP long traders who did not take profits and the likely SM move today is to fade weak shorts through London retest the day high at least. The possible levels where price might pause and reverse could be 1.6226 (breakout), 1.6247 (Tue high), 1.6255 (yesterday’s high). Broker platforms report that net-short positions in this pair have increased which means the food chain for SM is upward. If price breaks the high, potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013)
GU long levels: 1.6161, 1.6118 GU short levels: 1.6226, 1.6247, 1.6255, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
Wednesday 23 October 2013
DAILY REVIEW 23 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (130pips) bull closing just off the high on vol>2days. The close and volume suggests more upside and there is now daiy bearish volume divergence. Price is now in the previous daily congestion level approximately 1.3766 – 1.3866 and next daily supply level at 1.4200 – 1.4250 With the daily bearish divergence in place, the probability is for price to compress in the congestion area and probably correct downwards before further attempts upwards. The Asian range is 1.3768 – 1.3792 at the moment. TR is 1.3726 – 1.3792 SM killed off a lot of weak shorts yesterday and these blokes are not about to jump back in a hurry. The anticipated SM move will be to fade weak longs before reversing to test the high. As a daily bearish divergence is in place, this may also be a possible reversal level as stated yesterday. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3766 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3743, 1.3726 (pre-London, London) EU short levels: 1.3792, 1.3800, 1.3860
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (132pips) bull closing just off the high on vol>2days.The candle close and volume suggests further upside and there is also daily bearish volume divergence. The immediate potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) and the next daily supply level is at 1.6400 – 1.6455
The Asian range is 1.6226 – 1.6255 TR 1.6177 – 1.6255 TRL 1.6177 – 1.6210 TRU 1.6210 – 1.6255 SM took out many weak shorts in one move yesterday and the likely move is to fade weak longs through London before reversing and moving up to retest the day high at least. The only two levels that will be of interest to go long will be the 1.6210 and 1.6177 level. A H1 close below the TRL low of 1.6177 may lead to a change of bias.
GU long levels: 1.6202, 1.6077 (pre-London/London), GU short levels: 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (130pips) bull closing just off the high on vol>2days. The close and volume suggests more upside and there is now daiy bearish volume divergence. Price is now in the previous daily congestion level approximately 1.3766 – 1.3866 and next daily supply level at 1.4200 – 1.4250 With the daily bearish divergence in place, the probability is for price to compress in the congestion area and probably correct downwards before further attempts upwards. The Asian range is 1.3768 – 1.3792 at the moment. TR is 1.3726 – 1.3792 SM killed off a lot of weak shorts yesterday and these blokes are not about to jump back in a hurry. The anticipated SM move will be to fade weak longs before reversing to test the high. As a daily bearish divergence is in place, this may also be a possible reversal level as stated yesterday. A H1 close below the TR low of 1.3766 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3743, 1.3726 (pre-London, London) EU short levels: 1.3792, 1.3800, 1.3860
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (132pips) bull closing just off the high on vol>2days.The candle close and volume suggests further upside and there is also daily bearish volume divergence. The immediate potential supply is at 1.6300 key level, 1.6330 and 1.6380 (swing high 2 Jan 2013) and the next daily supply level is at 1.6400 – 1.6455
The Asian range is 1.6226 – 1.6255 TR 1.6177 – 1.6255 TRL 1.6177 – 1.6210 TRU 1.6210 – 1.6255 SM took out many weak shorts in one move yesterday and the likely move is to fade weak longs through London before reversing and moving up to retest the day high at least. The only two levels that will be of interest to go long will be the 1.6210 and 1.6177 level. A H1 close below the TRL low of 1.6177 may lead to a change of bias.
GU long levels: 1.6202, 1.6077 (pre-London/London), GU short levels: 1.6259, 1.6325, 1.6353, 1.6380
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