Subscribe To
Posts
All Comments
Monday 23 December 2013
Dear friends, this is Christmas week and with most traders already gone for the Christmas holidays, professionals will say that there is no use trying to trade the market until after the New Year. I do agree with them and would take this opportunity to wish everyone a Blessed Christmas and a Great New Year ahead.
Friday 20 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 20 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (44pips) bear closing just off the low on average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 As expected, prices have started to compress as price pushed lower. Levels of interest: 1.3600 key level – this is the previous daily breakout level and must hold in order for price to continue upward. The Asian range is 1.3648 – 1.3666 currently. SM will likely maintain selling pressure to test the current low before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3758, 1.3775, 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bear hammer closing on vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Breakout level 1.6480 The Asian range is 1.6329 – 1.6371 currently. Price is still well within the FOMC whipsaw range. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to continue fading weak longs before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6270, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6420, 1.6455, 1.6480
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (44pips) bear closing just off the low on average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 As expected, prices have started to compress as price pushed lower. Levels of interest: 1.3600 key level – this is the previous daily breakout level and must hold in order for price to continue upward. The Asian range is 1.3648 – 1.3666 currently. SM will likely maintain selling pressure to test the current low before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3758, 1.3775, 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bear hammer closing on vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Breakout level 1.6480 The Asian range is 1.6329 – 1.6371 currently. Price is still well within the FOMC whipsaw range. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to continue fading weak longs before reversing back upwards.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6270, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6420, 1.6455, 1.6480
Thursday 19 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 19 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (137pips) bear closing just off the low on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 A quick review of the FOMC shows market reaction as expected and the whipsaw down and back up was also expected owing to the relatively small taper. SM had in the first hour dived down to the 1.3700 key level and then reversed up to 1.3810 effectively wiping all weak longs/shorts off the board. It seemed that the stage was set for more up. However, the question and answer with Ben Bernanke was the game changer as Ben said that the FED could taper at every meeting. This effectively means that in theory, the FED’s balance sheet will be “healthier” with each meeting, this is a fundamental change and the market stalled and tanked shortly after. Levels of interest: 1.3600 key level – this is the previous daily breakout level and must hold in order for price to continue upward. We may see price compress as it reaches this level if it breaks and closes below the 1.3650 level. The Asian range is 1.3648 – 1.3693 currently. SM will likely create buying pressure to fade the weak shorts before reversing downwards to test the low.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3758, 1.3775, 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a very large spread (222pips) bull closing slightly more than 1/3 off the top on high vol>8days. The candle close suggests that there is selling and the volume suggests buying. Levels of interest: yesterday-tested breakout level 1.6480 Prices actually took stops above the previous swing high making a new high in 1.6483 before the FOMC gave SM cause to remove weak longs. The Asian range is 1.6364 – 1.6396 currently. Although there is climatic volume in H4, price action after taking out the 1.6464 level failed to show real absorption volume for a continuation as it failed to close above the 1.6464 level or close to it. Furthermore, the bulk of long positions from the recent 1.6215 swing up may still be in the SM inventory. This would suggest two possibilities, the first is that SM has distributed all its long positions which is rather improbable given the duration was so short at the swing high. The second is that SM has taken out the stops of the short traders and will retest the high for supply and distribute on the way back up to that level.
GU long levels: 1.6340, 1.6320, 1.6270, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6455, 1.6480
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (137pips) bear closing just off the low on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 A quick review of the FOMC shows market reaction as expected and the whipsaw down and back up was also expected owing to the relatively small taper. SM had in the first hour dived down to the 1.3700 key level and then reversed up to 1.3810 effectively wiping all weak longs/shorts off the board. It seemed that the stage was set for more up. However, the question and answer with Ben Bernanke was the game changer as Ben said that the FED could taper at every meeting. This effectively means that in theory, the FED’s balance sheet will be “healthier” with each meeting, this is a fundamental change and the market stalled and tanked shortly after. Levels of interest: 1.3600 key level – this is the previous daily breakout level and must hold in order for price to continue upward. We may see price compress as it reaches this level if it breaks and closes below the 1.3650 level. The Asian range is 1.3648 – 1.3693 currently. SM will likely create buying pressure to fade the weak shorts before reversing downwards to test the low.
EU long levels: 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3758, 1.3775, 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a very large spread (222pips) bull closing slightly more than 1/3 off the top on high vol>8days. The candle close suggests that there is selling and the volume suggests buying. Levels of interest: yesterday-tested breakout level 1.6480 Prices actually took stops above the previous swing high making a new high in 1.6483 before the FOMC gave SM cause to remove weak longs. The Asian range is 1.6364 – 1.6396 currently. Although there is climatic volume in H4, price action after taking out the 1.6464 level failed to show real absorption volume for a continuation as it failed to close above the 1.6464 level or close to it. Furthermore, the bulk of long positions from the recent 1.6215 swing up may still be in the SM inventory. This would suggest two possibilities, the first is that SM has distributed all its long positions which is rather improbable given the duration was so short at the swing high. The second is that SM has taken out the stops of the short traders and will retest the high for supply and distribute on the way back up to that level.
GU long levels: 1.6340, 1.6320, 1.6270, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6455, 1.6480
Wednesday 18 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 18 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (59pips) bull downthrust closing off the high on low vol<4days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests no demand. No change in Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 There is a trading range from 1.3708 – 1.3810 with TR1 1.3708 – 1.3758 and TR2 1.3758 – 1.3810 The Asian range is 1.3762 – 1.3772 currently, almost déjà vu with yesterday’s Asia range as SM pushed all the way to stop hunt below the 1.3727 level yesterday. We are in a trading range situation so it makes sense to trade the range high and low pre-FOMC if we get a setup. Anything in-between is risky although it is possible to take EU long from Asia low (confluence with TR middle 1.3758 and ema200 1.3760) but clear SM manipulation is required and stops should be as tight as possible. DailyFx states “The ECB’s balance sheet has declined by -24.6% in the 52-weeks ending December 6, 2013; to contrast, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown by +36.8% over this same period; and the Bank of Japan’s has growth by +40.7%.” SM cannot ignore the fundamentals and is likely to move EU up regardless of whether the FED tapers in Dec or Jan. In the event of a Dec taper, SM will likely use the FOMC news to whipsaw EU before reversing upward. The fact that the majority of open positions on most platforms are short makes it even more likely for SM to do so.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895, 1.3985, 1.4155, 1.4200, 1.4250
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (119pips) bear wide-body spinning top on low vol>1day. The candle close suggests that there is buying and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: H4/demand level 1.6190 – 1.6215 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Yesterday, SM tested broke Friday’s low and stop hunted the 1.6225 level going down to 1.6215 before reversing upward. Downward Swing range is now 249pips which is about what we could expect in a retracement move and price has taken stops just below the Daily 38.2%Fib 1.6231 The Asian range is 1.6260 – 1.6287 currently. The GU is likely to move together with the EU later with the FOMC news release as its movement will be based on USD strength/weakness and not cross-pair manipulation. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.6300 key level or perhaps yesterday’s high before reversing downward to retest at least 1.6225 before reversing upward. A H1/H4 close below yesterday’s low will likely see prices test the 1.6200 key level and lower.
GU long levels: 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (59pips) bull downthrust closing off the high on low vol<4days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests no demand. No change in Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 There is a trading range from 1.3708 – 1.3810 with TR1 1.3708 – 1.3758 and TR2 1.3758 – 1.3810 The Asian range is 1.3762 – 1.3772 currently, almost déjà vu with yesterday’s Asia range as SM pushed all the way to stop hunt below the 1.3727 level yesterday. We are in a trading range situation so it makes sense to trade the range high and low pre-FOMC if we get a setup. Anything in-between is risky although it is possible to take EU long from Asia low (confluence with TR middle 1.3758 and ema200 1.3760) but clear SM manipulation is required and stops should be as tight as possible. DailyFx states “The ECB’s balance sheet has declined by -24.6% in the 52-weeks ending December 6, 2013; to contrast, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown by +36.8% over this same period; and the Bank of Japan’s has growth by +40.7%.” SM cannot ignore the fundamentals and is likely to move EU up regardless of whether the FED tapers in Dec or Jan. In the event of a Dec taper, SM will likely use the FOMC news to whipsaw EU before reversing upward. The fact that the majority of open positions on most platforms are short makes it even more likely for SM to do so.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3810, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895, 1.3985, 1.4155, 1.4200, 1.4250
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (119pips) bear wide-body spinning top on low vol>1day. The candle close suggests that there is buying and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: H4/demand level 1.6190 – 1.6215 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Yesterday, SM tested broke Friday’s low and stop hunted the 1.6225 level going down to 1.6215 before reversing upward. Downward Swing range is now 249pips which is about what we could expect in a retracement move and price has taken stops just below the Daily 38.2%Fib 1.6231 The Asian range is 1.6260 – 1.6287 currently. The GU is likely to move together with the EU later with the FOMC news release as its movement will be based on USD strength/weakness and not cross-pair manipulation. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.6300 key level or perhaps yesterday’s high before reversing downward to retest at least 1.6225 before reversing upward. A H1/H4 close below yesterday’s low will likely see prices test the 1.6200 key level and lower.
GU long levels: 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Tuesday 17 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 17 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (70pips) bull closing ½ off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests no demand. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3751 – 1.3771 currently. The current daily candle close at what appears to be strong resistance is a likely bear trap prior to the positioning pre-FOMC where it is likely that SM will take prices. SM is likely to create buying pressure to continue fading the new shorts past the 1.3800 key level and then reverse back down before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (63pips) bull upthrust on low vol<24days. The candle close suggests that there is selling and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Daily 23.8%Fib @ 1.6318 Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.6231 Daily 50%Fib @ 1.6156 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 The Asian range is 1.6288 – 1.6318 currently and prices are still within yesterday’s range. With UK news expected later, we can expect SM to more or less move/position prices in the opposition direction prior to the news. SM is likely to create buying pressure to around 1.6354 before reversing to retest last Friday’s low.
GU long levels: 1.6261, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (70pips) bull closing ½ off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close suggests selling and the volume suggests no demand. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3751 – 1.3771 currently. The current daily candle close at what appears to be strong resistance is a likely bear trap prior to the positioning pre-FOMC where it is likely that SM will take prices. SM is likely to create buying pressure to continue fading the new shorts past the 1.3800 key level and then reverse back down before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (63pips) bull upthrust on low vol<24days. The candle close suggests that there is selling and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Daily 23.8%Fib @ 1.6318 Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.6231 Daily 50%Fib @ 1.6156 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 The Asian range is 1.6288 – 1.6318 currently and prices are still within yesterday’s range. With UK news expected later, we can expect SM to more or less move/position prices in the opposition direction prior to the news. SM is likely to create buying pressure to around 1.6354 before reversing to retest last Friday’s low.
GU long levels: 1.6261, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Monday 16 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 16 Dec 2013
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (117pips) bull closing 3/5 off the high on high vol>17weeks. The candle close and volume suggests selling as price reached the previous daily supply levels of around 1.3800 – 1.3831 The Daily candle is a below-average spread (60pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests buying and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 Prices opened slightly gapped down but has since been closed as SM fades the low-level shorts who were late to the party. The Asian range is 1.3727 – 1.3760 currently. SM is likely to create buying pressure to continue fading the shorts to Friday’s high 1.3768 and then reverse to induce shorts before reversing back upwards. Where will SM be likely to resume the upward push? Looking at last week’s price action, we are looking at the key 1.3700 not being tested in spite of all the news moves (there was a fair amount of tapering talk by various FED officials) and a fairly strong retracement fade upwards, this would suggest that SM has trapped traders below this level and it may not retest until after price has moved higher than the current swing high of 1.3831 so possible levels for the long would be the Asia low 1.3727 or around Friday’s NY low 1.3713.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (203pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests that there is no selling pressure and the context is one where supply looks to have been absorbed and prices may be positioned to climb to test the next supply levels. The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests that there is buying and the volume suggests no supply. Levels of interest: Daily 23.8%Fib @ 1.6318 Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.6231 Daily 50%Fib @ 1.6156 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Price opened with a small gap down which has since been closed and the Asian range is 1.6284 – 1.6307 currently. SM has trapped the low-level short traders and will most likely create buying pressure to fade them, retesting 1.6318 and higher (maybe close to last Friday’s high around 1.6354) before reversing back downward to test last Friday’s low or lower.
GU long levels: 1.6261, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (117pips) bull closing 3/5 off the high on high vol>17weeks. The candle close and volume suggests selling as price reached the previous daily supply levels of around 1.3800 – 1.3831 The Daily candle is a below-average spread (60pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests buying and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 Prices opened slightly gapped down but has since been closed as SM fades the low-level shorts who were late to the party. The Asian range is 1.3727 – 1.3760 currently. SM is likely to create buying pressure to continue fading the shorts to Friday’s high 1.3768 and then reverse to induce shorts before reversing back upwards. Where will SM be likely to resume the upward push? Looking at last week’s price action, we are looking at the key 1.3700 not being tested in spite of all the news moves (there was a fair amount of tapering talk by various FED officials) and a fairly strong retracement fade upwards, this would suggest that SM has trapped traders below this level and it may not retest until after price has moved higher than the current swing high of 1.3831 so possible levels for the long would be the Asia low 1.3727 or around Friday’s NY low 1.3713.
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (203pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests that there is no selling pressure and the context is one where supply looks to have been absorbed and prices may be positioned to climb to test the next supply levels. The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests that there is buying and the volume suggests no supply. Levels of interest: Daily 23.8%Fib @ 1.6318 Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.6231 Daily 50%Fib @ 1.6156 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Price opened with a small gap down which has since been closed and the Asian range is 1.6284 – 1.6307 currently. SM has trapped the low-level short traders and will most likely create buying pressure to fade them, retesting 1.6318 and higher (maybe close to last Friday’s high around 1.6354) before reversing back downward to test last Friday’s low or lower.
GU long levels: 1.6261, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Friday 13 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 13 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (66pips) bear wide-body spinning top closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests possible commencement of buying. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3741 – 1.3759 currently. Yesterday saw prices push to the key 1.3800 level without testing the 1.3831 swing high. Subsequently, prices tanked when news of RBA calling for AU at 0.8500 triggered a strengthening of the USD and EU fell with mixed US news of poor employment figures and good Retail Sales. Whilst it is possible that a mid-week reversal has begun at the 1.3800 level, it could be only a retracement in the bigger scheme of things as SM loads up again at the lows for a push to 1.3831 which is still well within reach. SM is likely to create selling pressure to test the yesterday’s low or lower and then reverse upwards to fade the weak shorts to test the higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3736, 1.3720, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests that there is buying into the candle. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Yesterday SM did as expected to test close to 1.6420 and then stalled at the 1.6320 which is still holding. The Asian range is 1.6331 – 1.6359 currently. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test yesterday’s low and reverse upward to test 1.6480 and higher.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6290 GU short levels: 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Note: With FOMC expected next week and today being Friday with not much significant news events, SM may not really move prices all that much until very late in order to trap traders going into the weekend.
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (66pips) bear wide-body spinning top closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests possible commencement of buying. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3741 – 1.3759 currently. Yesterday saw prices push to the key 1.3800 level without testing the 1.3831 swing high. Subsequently, prices tanked when news of RBA calling for AU at 0.8500 triggered a strengthening of the USD and EU fell with mixed US news of poor employment figures and good Retail Sales. Whilst it is possible that a mid-week reversal has begun at the 1.3800 level, it could be only a retracement in the bigger scheme of things as SM loads up again at the lows for a push to 1.3831 which is still well within reach. SM is likely to create selling pressure to test the yesterday’s low or lower and then reverse upwards to fade the weak shorts to test the higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3736, 1.3720, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests that there is buying into the candle. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Yesterday SM did as expected to test close to 1.6420 and then stalled at the 1.6320 which is still holding. The Asian range is 1.6331 – 1.6359 currently. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test yesterday’s low and reverse upward to test 1.6480 and higher.
GU long levels: 1.6320, 1.6290 GU short levels: 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Note: With FOMC expected next week and today being Friday with not much significant news events, SM may not really move prices all that much until very late in order to trap traders going into the weekend.
Thursday 12 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 12 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (71pips) bull spinning top closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>2days with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Price has broken to the 1.3810 level and near the daily/weekly swing high level 1.3831 Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3772 – 1.3802. Nothing has changed and the fact remains that price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a H1/H4 close above will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level or higher. These two levels remain significant levels for reversal or retracement for profit taking. SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.3800 key level again then reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels from which a mid-week reversal is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3746, 1.3720, 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (118pips) bear closing about slightly more than 1/4 off the low on low vol>2days. The candle close suggests that there is some buying into the candle. The Asian range is 1.6351 – 1.6414. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 As seen in the H4 charts, SM is likely to have been accumulating for a push north from 1.6300 upwards. Shown is a H4 chart that was posted yesterday. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.6421 and maybe higher before reversing to fade weak longs and reversing again back to test 1.6480 and higher.
GU long levels: 1.6351, 1.6338, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (71pips) bull spinning top closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>2days with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Price has broken to the 1.3810 level and near the daily/weekly swing high level 1.3831 Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 The Asian range is 1.3772 – 1.3802. Nothing has changed and the fact remains that price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a H1/H4 close above will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level or higher. These two levels remain significant levels for reversal or retracement for profit taking. SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.3800 key level again then reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels from which a mid-week reversal is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3746, 1.3720, 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (118pips) bear closing about slightly more than 1/4 off the low on low vol>2days. The candle close suggests that there is some buying into the candle. The Asian range is 1.6351 – 1.6414. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 As seen in the H4 charts, SM is likely to have been accumulating for a push north from 1.6300 upwards. Shown is a H4 chart that was posted yesterday. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test the 1.6421 and maybe higher before reversing to fade weak longs and reversing again back to test 1.6480 and higher.
GU long levels: 1.6351, 1.6338, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Wednesday 11 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 11 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>1day with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling. However, with price somewhat in the middle of nowhere and close enough to the 1.3800 key level and daily swing high level 1.3830, it is more likely a bear trap for SM short-term load up and unload at the top. The H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 has also likely been absorbed and prices look poised for at least one test of the key level 1.3800. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with Monday Asia high 1.3720, Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 The Asian range is 1.3746 – 1.3765 currently. Broker platforms still show a net-short bias giving SM a nice food chain to the upside. Price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a close above that will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level or higher. SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.3800 key level then reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels from which a mid-week reversal is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3720, 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (47pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>1day with continued bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests that there is no buying momentum. However, without any climatic volume being seen in the upward pushes, there is always the possibility that there could be a further push upward. This would make sense since brokers’ platforms do show net short positions indicating that the possibility of foraging for more orders to the upside by SM is still there. The Asian range is 1.6429 – 1.6456 currenty. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the current high and maybe higher before reversing.
GU long levels: 1.6375, 1.6353, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6570, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>1day with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling. However, with price somewhat in the middle of nowhere and close enough to the 1.3800 key level and daily swing high level 1.3830, it is more likely a bear trap for SM short-term load up and unload at the top. The H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 has also likely been absorbed and prices look poised for at least one test of the key level 1.3800. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with Monday Asia high 1.3720, Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 The Asian range is 1.3746 – 1.3765 currently. Broker platforms still show a net-short bias giving SM a nice food chain to the upside. Price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a close above that will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level or higher. SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.3800 key level then reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels from which a mid-week reversal is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3720, 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (47pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>1day with continued bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests that there is no buying momentum. However, without any climatic volume being seen in the upward pushes, there is always the possibility that there could be a further push upward. This would make sense since brokers’ platforms do show net short positions indicating that the possibility of foraging for more orders to the upside by SM is still there. The Asian range is 1.6429 – 1.6456 currenty. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the current high and maybe higher before reversing.
GU long levels: 1.6375, 1.6353, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6570, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Tuesday 10 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 10 Dec 2013
My apologies just got back after the whole day out attending to urgent matters. Posted EST 7.30am
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (51pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<3days with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests further upside but the volume suggests a lack of buying interest. Unchanged Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 The Asian range is 1.3732 – 1.3766. Potential TR Lower: 1.3610 – 1.3650 TR Upper: 1.3650 – 1.3720. Price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a close above that will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level. These supply levels will be tested and are high probability reversal levels for a retracement for SM to take profit. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a above-average spread (109pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<24days. The candle close suggests more upside but volume suggests that momentum has slowed and may be topping off. The Asian range is 1.6417 – 1.6464. SM has actually reset GU to a long bias again. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure and then reverse back upward but volume is falling off so we may see very choppy price action if not a full blown reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6380, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6452, 1.6490, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
My apologies just got back after the whole day out attending to urgent matters. Posted EST 7.30am
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (51pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<3days with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests further upside but the volume suggests a lack of buying interest. Unchanged Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 The Asian range is 1.3732 – 1.3766. Potential TR Lower: 1.3610 – 1.3650 TR Upper: 1.3650 – 1.3720. Price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a close above that will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level. These supply levels will be tested and are high probability reversal levels for a retracement for SM to take profit. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels.
EU long levels: 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3830, 1.3870
GU: The Daily candle is a above-average spread (109pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<24days. The candle close suggests more upside but volume suggests that momentum has slowed and may be topping off. The Asian range is 1.6417 – 1.6464. SM has actually reset GU to a long bias again. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure and then reverse back upward but volume is falling off so we may see very choppy price action if not a full blown reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6380, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6452, 1.6490, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
Monday 9 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 09 Dec 2013
EU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (182pips) bull closing at the high closing on high vol>17days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a large spread (87pips) bull closing at the high on average vol<2days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests further upside but the volume suggests a lack of demand. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 As anticipated, SM used the NFP news on Friday to wipe out another bunch of weak shorts who jumped in on the “strong” NFP numbers. Price opened today with a small gap up taking out any remaining shorts and has closed the gap with the Asian range currently 1.3699 – 1.3720. The current H4 swing low to high is about 325pips and given that we had two days (Thursday and Friday) of inefficient news moves, it suggests that the main participants long now are the SM. So the question is what will they be likely to do with a bucketful of long orders? We are possibly at a very key level as a daily close above 1.3850 will likely expose the 1.4000 – 1.4500 levels. Therefore this area could be a potential launch pad for further assault on the higher supply levels or a major reversal level. Potential TR Lower: 1.3610 – 1.3650 TR Upper: 1.3650 – 1.3720. Having closed the gap, if SM retests the high or higher inducing longs before reversing to take profit (remember they have many long orders), they are likely to reverse back up again once they have re-stocked long orders. If SM keeps the selling pressure from today’s highs, they will also likely reverse back upwards once they have sufficient orders again. Either way, SM is likely to test the 1.3830 level sometime soon unless we get some tape bomb that cause USD to strengthen or EURO to weaken fundamentally, which I believe is unlikely with Euro interest rate decision out of the way.
EU long levels: 1.3650 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3720, 1.3780, 1.3800, 1.3825
GU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (152pips) bear small-bodied spinning top closing on high vol>17days. The Daily candle is a normal spread (103pips) bull small-bodied spinning top closing on high vol<2days. (will update later)
EU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (182pips) bull closing at the high closing on high vol>17days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The Daily candle is a large spread (87pips) bull closing at the high on average vol<2days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests further upside but the volume suggests a lack of demand. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 As anticipated, SM used the NFP news on Friday to wipe out another bunch of weak shorts who jumped in on the “strong” NFP numbers. Price opened today with a small gap up taking out any remaining shorts and has closed the gap with the Asian range currently 1.3699 – 1.3720. The current H4 swing low to high is about 325pips and given that we had two days (Thursday and Friday) of inefficient news moves, it suggests that the main participants long now are the SM. So the question is what will they be likely to do with a bucketful of long orders? We are possibly at a very key level as a daily close above 1.3850 will likely expose the 1.4000 – 1.4500 levels. Therefore this area could be a potential launch pad for further assault on the higher supply levels or a major reversal level. Potential TR Lower: 1.3610 – 1.3650 TR Upper: 1.3650 – 1.3720. Having closed the gap, if SM retests the high or higher inducing longs before reversing to take profit (remember they have many long orders), they are likely to reverse back up again once they have re-stocked long orders. If SM keeps the selling pressure from today’s highs, they will also likely reverse back upwards once they have sufficient orders again. Either way, SM is likely to test the 1.3830 level sometime soon unless we get some tape bomb that cause USD to strengthen or EURO to weaken fundamentally, which I believe is unlikely with Euro interest rate decision out of the way.
EU long levels: 1.3650 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3720, 1.3780, 1.3800, 1.3825
GU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (152pips) bear small-bodied spinning top closing on high vol>17days. The Daily candle is a normal spread (103pips) bull small-bodied spinning top closing on high vol<2days. (will update later)
Friday 6 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 06 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (134pips) bull closing at the high on very high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 SM used both sets of news to sweep out weak shorts and longs again yesterday, definitely re-stocking inventory for a continued upward push. The Asian range is 1.3654 – 1.3676 currently. Most broker platforms have increased net short positions. The current H4 swing low to high is about 280pips and given that the news move yesterday was inefficient, SM may retrace deeper to create a mini “mid-week reversal” but before doing that they will want to remove the weak shorts since some broker platforms report a 10% increase of short positions over last week. Supply at the previous breakout level 1.3660 is already absorbed and SM will likely create buying pressure to test yesterday’s high and quite possibly spike the 1.3700 key level inducing breakout traders before reversing to remove weak longs before reversing, possibly the reversal will use the NFP news just as SM did yesterday except that it will likely be clearer as we will not have Euro news at the same time to create more whipsaw.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3676, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780, 1.3800, 1.3825
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (103pips) bear wide-bodied spinning top closing on very high vol>79days. The candle close and volume suggests that there is the commencement of buying into the candle. This may just signal a possible reverse upwards as climatic volume can already be seen in H4 with prices currently holding at the H4 short term demand level 1.6296 – 1.6320. The next H4 demand level (also short term and a possible manipulation level) is just below at 1.6255 – 1.6270. The Asian range is 1.6317 – 1.6341 currently. SM retests Asian high or higher before reversing down to test yesterday’s low. Although the SM bias is downwards at the moment, volume suggests that a push back upwards is likely soon. SM will likely position GU against the expected direction before the NFP news today and will likely reverse this upwards to take out the large number of shorts that have jumped in already. A H1/H4 close above 1.6400 will likely see a retest of the 1.6441 level. This would of course be in line with the anticipated EU push back upwards. After all, to move EU will require selling USD and EU has the largest percentage by volume (which will definitely move GU up), not only manipulating EG. Depending on the impact of the news, a reversal back upwards or cycle reset is still possible. To accommodate the possible impact of news, I have added more levels.
GU long levels: 1.6300, 1.6260, 1.6240 (breakout level), 1.6209, 1.6133 GU short levels: 1.6367, 1.6400, 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (134pips) bull closing at the high on very high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 SM used both sets of news to sweep out weak shorts and longs again yesterday, definitely re-stocking inventory for a continued upward push. The Asian range is 1.3654 – 1.3676 currently. Most broker platforms have increased net short positions. The current H4 swing low to high is about 280pips and given that the news move yesterday was inefficient, SM may retrace deeper to create a mini “mid-week reversal” but before doing that they will want to remove the weak shorts since some broker platforms report a 10% increase of short positions over last week. Supply at the previous breakout level 1.3660 is already absorbed and SM will likely create buying pressure to test yesterday’s high and quite possibly spike the 1.3700 key level inducing breakout traders before reversing to remove weak longs before reversing, possibly the reversal will use the NFP news just as SM did yesterday except that it will likely be clearer as we will not have Euro news at the same time to create more whipsaw.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3676, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780, 1.3800, 1.3825
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (103pips) bear wide-bodied spinning top closing on very high vol>79days. The candle close and volume suggests that there is the commencement of buying into the candle. This may just signal a possible reverse upwards as climatic volume can already be seen in H4 with prices currently holding at the H4 short term demand level 1.6296 – 1.6320. The next H4 demand level (also short term and a possible manipulation level) is just below at 1.6255 – 1.6270. The Asian range is 1.6317 – 1.6341 currently. SM retests Asian high or higher before reversing down to test yesterday’s low. Although the SM bias is downwards at the moment, volume suggests that a push back upwards is likely soon. SM will likely position GU against the expected direction before the NFP news today and will likely reverse this upwards to take out the large number of shorts that have jumped in already. A H1/H4 close above 1.6400 will likely see a retest of the 1.6441 level. This would of course be in line with the anticipated EU push back upwards. After all, to move EU will require selling USD and EU has the largest percentage by volume (which will definitely move GU up), not only manipulating EG. Depending on the impact of the news, a reversal back upwards or cycle reset is still possible. To accommodate the possible impact of news, I have added more levels.
GU long levels: 1.6300, 1.6260, 1.6240 (breakout level), 1.6209, 1.6133 GU short levels: 1.6367, 1.6400, 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620
Thursday 5 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 05 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (77pips) bull small-bodied hammer closing off the high on high vol>10days. In the context of the TR, the candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 After reversing price up on Tue, SM used news to sweep out weak longs again yesterday suggesting a stocking of inventory for an coming upward push. The Asian range is 1.3579 – 1.3638 currently. The daily hammer candle is likely displayed to seduce more short orders that will have stops placed above the current TR high 1.3621. SM will likely create buying pressure to test the 1.3660 breakout level and reverse to remove weak longs before reversing around the 1.3600 – 1.3590 level before reversing upwards to test 1.3660 (updated, corrected the error earlier) and higher.
EU long levels: 1.3600, 1.3590, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3660, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (81pips) bear small-bodied hammer closing on high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle but in the context of the weekly price action and current TR 1.6313 – 1.6441, it would suggest a reset of buying for more upside.
The Asian range is 1.6368 – 1.6397 currently. SM retests the Asia low or lower around 1.6346 before reversing up test the 1.6441 supply and higher .
GU long levels: 1.6367, 1.6346, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620
EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (77pips) bull small-bodied hammer closing off the high on high vol>10days. In the context of the TR, the candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 After reversing price up on Tue, SM used news to sweep out weak longs again yesterday suggesting a stocking of inventory for an coming upward push. The Asian range is 1.3579 – 1.3638 currently. The daily hammer candle is likely displayed to seduce more short orders that will have stops placed above the current TR high 1.3621. SM will likely create buying pressure to test the 1.3660 breakout level and reverse to remove weak longs before reversing around the 1.3600 – 1.3590 level before reversing upwards to test 1.3660 (updated, corrected the error earlier) and higher.
EU long levels: 1.3600, 1.3590, 1.3558 EU short levels: 1.3660, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (81pips) bear small-bodied hammer closing on high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle but in the context of the weekly price action and current TR 1.6313 – 1.6441, it would suggest a reset of buying for more upside.
The Asian range is 1.6368 – 1.6397 currently. SM retests the Asia low or lower around 1.6346 before reversing up test the 1.6441 supply and higher .
GU long levels: 1.6367, 1.6346, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620
Wednesday 4 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 04 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing 1/4 off the high on average vol<1days. The candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest (unchanged): Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Yesterday, price reversed the entire down move as anticipated. The Asian range is 1.3581 – 1.3597 currently. The daily spinning top is likely displayed to seduce more short orders. SM will likely create selling pressure to fade the weak longs possibly to around the 1.3556 level before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3556, 1.3530, 1.3504 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull upthrust closing on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle.
The Asian range is 1.6377 – 1.6396 currently. As anticipated, SM did stophunt the 1.6423 level to 1.6435 before reverse downwards after taking out the weak shorts. Since SM did not retest the high of 1.6441 yesterday, some of the possibilities: 1)SM retests the 1.6367 level before reversing up again to retest the 1.6441 supply and higher 2)SM tests the 1.6452 level then reverses for a possible mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6367, 1.6346, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top closing 1/4 off the high on average vol<1days. The candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest (unchanged): Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Yesterday, price reversed the entire down move as anticipated. The Asian range is 1.3581 – 1.3597 currently. The daily spinning top is likely displayed to seduce more short orders. SM will likely create selling pressure to fade the weak longs possibly to around the 1.3556 level before reversing upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3556, 1.3530, 1.3504 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull upthrust closing on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle.
The Asian range is 1.6377 – 1.6396 currently. As anticipated, SM did stophunt the 1.6423 level to 1.6435 before reverse downwards after taking out the weak shorts. Since SM did not retest the high of 1.6441 yesterday, some of the possibilities: 1)SM retests the 1.6367 level before reversing up again to retest the 1.6441 supply and higher 2)SM tests the 1.6452 level then reverses for a possible mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6367, 1.6346, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527
Tuesday 3 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 03 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bear closing nearly 1/3 off the low on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests buying into the candle as price reached the daily ema50 @ 1.3515 Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Price has continued to hold and the Asian range is 1.3523 – 1.3552 currently. SM has dropped yesterday and likely have most traders thinking short, SM is likely to test the NY session high 1.3559 and reverse creating selling pressure to induce shorts before reversing back up around 1.3515 or 1.3504. A H1/H4 close below 1.3498 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3515, 1.3504 EU short levels: 1.3559, 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (100pips) bear upthrust closing on average vol>6days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle.
The Asian range is 1.6345 – 1.6383 currently. As expected, SM did reverse downwards after taking out the weak shorts and as mentioned yesterday the current GU swing is also now about just over 300pips. Since SM did not retest the high of 1.6441 yesterday, some of the possibilities: 1)SM tests near the session highs yesterday (1.6395, 1.6423) or yesterday’s high and then reverses to create selling pressure to fade weak longs before reversing up again. 2)SM breaks yesterday’s high and tests the 1.6452 level then reverses for a possible deep retracement, maybe a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6341, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6395, 1.6423, 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bear closing nearly 1/3 off the low on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests buying into the candle as price reached the daily ema50 @ 1.3515 Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Price has continued to hold and the Asian range is 1.3523 – 1.3552 currently. SM has dropped yesterday and likely have most traders thinking short, SM is likely to test the NY session high 1.3559 and reverse creating selling pressure to induce shorts before reversing back up around 1.3515 or 1.3504. A H1/H4 close below 1.3498 may see more downside.
EU long levels: 1.3515, 1.3504 EU short levels: 1.3559, 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (100pips) bear upthrust closing on average vol>6days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling into the candle.
The Asian range is 1.6345 – 1.6383 currently. As expected, SM did reverse downwards after taking out the weak shorts and as mentioned yesterday the current GU swing is also now about just over 300pips. Since SM did not retest the high of 1.6441 yesterday, some of the possibilities: 1)SM tests near the session highs yesterday (1.6395, 1.6423) or yesterday’s high and then reverses to create selling pressure to fade weak longs before reversing up again. 2)SM breaks yesterday’s high and tests the 1.6452 level then reverses for a possible deep retracement, maybe a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6341, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6395, 1.6423, 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527
Monday 2 December 2013
DAILY REVIEW 02 Dec 2013
EU: Monthly – the candle is a small spread (327pips) downthrust dragonfly doji closing on low vol>3months. Price is really not at any significant level. Weekly – the candle is a small spread (132pips) bull closing 1/4 off the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but price is not at any significant level. The Daily candle is a small spread (42pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>1day with daily bearish volume divergence. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3581 – 1.3610 currently. The new TR 1.3559 – 1.3621 is holding at the moment. The food chain for SM is still northbound and SM is likely to retest the highs to induce more shorts, then reverse, possibly to Asia low before reversing back north. A H1/H4 close below 1.3581 may see price testing lower to the 1.3557 level before pushing back up.
EU long levels: 1.3580, 1.3564, 1.3557 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: Monthly- the candle is a normal spread (530pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggest more upside. Weekly- the candle is a near-normal spread (251pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>12weeks. The candle close and volume suggest upside. Levels of interest: Likely target 1.6750 Daily breakout of congestion level 1.6455 The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (70pips) bull small-bodied spinning top closing on average vol>5days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume does suggest selling into the candle.
Price has gapped up and broken last week’s high. The Asian range is 1.6367 – 1.6441 currently. The large range in Asia is likely to have taken out a significant number of weak shorts. The current GU swing is also now about just over 300pips, prices are also close to test the previous daily congestion breakout level of 1.6455 SM has done the business to take profits for November and this should be a good level to start fading the new longs and the weak longs. Today may see a retracement downwards at the test of the 1.6455 level. SM is likely to induce breakout traders at the retest of the high or around the 1.6455 level before reversing for a retracement trade down which may turn out to be a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6352, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527
EU: Monthly – the candle is a small spread (327pips) downthrust dragonfly doji closing on low vol>3months. Price is really not at any significant level. Weekly – the candle is a small spread (132pips) bull closing 1/4 off the high on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but price is not at any significant level. The Daily candle is a small spread (42pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>1day with daily bearish volume divergence. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Previous breakout level 1.3660 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 Price opened with a small gap down and the Asian range is 1.3581 – 1.3610 currently. The new TR 1.3559 – 1.3621 is holding at the moment. The food chain for SM is still northbound and SM is likely to retest the highs to induce more shorts, then reverse, possibly to Asia low before reversing back north. A H1/H4 close below 1.3581 may see price testing lower to the 1.3557 level before pushing back up.
EU long levels: 1.3580, 1.3564, 1.3557 EU short levels: 1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780
GU: Monthly- the candle is a normal spread (530pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggest more upside. Weekly- the candle is a near-normal spread (251pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>12weeks. The candle close and volume suggest upside. Levels of interest: Likely target 1.6750 Daily breakout of congestion level 1.6455 The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (70pips) bull small-bodied spinning top closing on average vol>5days with daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume does suggest selling into the candle.
Price has gapped up and broken last week’s high. The Asian range is 1.6367 – 1.6441 currently. The large range in Asia is likely to have taken out a significant number of weak shorts. The current GU swing is also now about just over 300pips, prices are also close to test the previous daily congestion breakout level of 1.6455 SM has done the business to take profits for November and this should be a good level to start fading the new longs and the weak longs. Today may see a retracement downwards at the test of the 1.6455 level. SM is likely to induce breakout traders at the retest of the high or around the 1.6455 level before reversing for a retracement trade down which may turn out to be a mid-week reversal.
GU long levels: 1.6352, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6276, 1.6240, 1.6209 GU short levels: 1.6380, 1.6418, 1.6452, 1.6527
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)