DAILY REVIEW 16 Dec 2013
EU: Weekly- the candle is a small spread (117pips) bull closing 3/5 off the high on high vol>17weeks. The candle close and volume suggests selling as price reached the previous daily supply levels of around 1.3800 – 1.3831 The Daily candle is a below-average spread (60pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests buying and the volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Daily/Weekly swing high 1.3831 Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 Prices opened slightly gapped down but has since been closed as SM fades the low-level shorts who were late to the party. The Asian range is 1.3727 – 1.3760 currently. SM is likely to create buying pressure to continue fading the shorts to Friday’s high 1.3768 and then reverse to induce shorts before reversing back upwards. Where will SM be likely to resume the upward push? Looking at last week’s price action, we are looking at the key 1.3700 not being tested in spite of all the news moves (there was a fair amount of tapering talk by various FED officials) and a fairly strong retracement fade upwards, this would suggest that SM has trapped traders below this level and it may not retest until after price has moved higher than the current swing high of 1.3831 so possible levels for the long would be the Asia low 1.3727 or around Friday’s NY low 1.3713. 
EU long levels: 1.3727, 1.3713, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels:  1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895

GU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (203pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<6weeks. The candle close and volume suggests that there is no selling pressure and the context is one where supply looks to have been absorbed and prices may be positioned to climb to test the next supply levels. The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests that there is buying and the volume suggests no supply. Levels of interest: Daily 23.8%Fib @ 1.6318 Daily 38.2%Fib @ 1.6231 Daily 50%Fib @ 1.6156 H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 Price opened with a small gap down which has since been closed and  the Asian range is 1.6284 – 1.6307 currently. SM has trapped the low-level short traders and will most likely create buying pressure to fade them, retesting 1.6318 and higher (maybe close to last Friday’s high around 1.6354) before reversing back downward to test last Friday’s low or lower. 
GU long levels:  1.6261, 1.6225, 1.6196, 1.6150, 1.6132 GU short levels: 1.6354, 1.6420, 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6580, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750