EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (62pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>1day with continued daily bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests selling. However, with price somewhat in the middle of nowhere and close enough to the 1.3800 key level and daily swing high level 1.3830, it is more likely a bear trap for SM short-term load up and unload at the top. The H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 has also likely been absorbed and prices look poised for at least one test of the key level 1.3800. Levels of interest: Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with Monday Asia high 1.3720, Test of Daily breakout level 1.3868 25Oct2013 swing high 1.3831 The Asian range is 1.3746 – 1.3765 currently. Broker platforms still show a net-short bias giving SM a nice food chain to the upside. Price is well within reach of the 1.3831 level and a close above that will likely see a test of the 1.3870 level or higher. SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the 1.3800 key level then reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards to test the higher supply levels from which a mid-week reversal is possible.
EU long levels: 1.3720, 1.3705, 1.3695, 1.3650, 1.3620, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3870, 1.3895
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (47pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>1day with continued bearish volume divergence. The candle close suggests that there is no buying momentum. However, without any climatic volume being seen in the upward pushes, there is always the possibility that there could be a further push upward. This would make sense since brokers’ platforms do show net short positions indicating that the possibility of foraging for more orders to the upside by SM is still there. The Asian range is 1.6429 – 1.6456 currenty. Levels of interest: H4/daily supply levels: 1.6524 – 1.6533, 1.6555 – 1.6571, 1.6600 – 1.6620, breakout level 1.6480 SM is likely to create buying pressure to test the current high and maybe higher before reversing.
GU long levels: 1.6375, 1.6353, 1.6321, 1.6300 GU short levels: 1.6480, 1.6500, 1.6533, 1.6570, 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6660, 1.6735, 1.6750
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