DAILY REVIEW 06 Dec 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (134pips) bull closing at the high on very high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests further upside. Levels of interest:  Daily Fib 61.8% @ 1.3622 Daily Fib 78.6% @ 1.3715 confluence with H4 breakout level 1.3735, Daily Fib88.6% @ 1.3770 confluence with H4 supply level 1.3771 – 1.3790 SM used both sets of news to sweep out weak shorts and longs again yesterday, definitely re-stocking inventory for a continued upward push. The Asian range is 1.3654 – 1.3676 currently. Most broker platforms have increased net short positions. The current H4 swing low to high is about 280pips and given that the news move yesterday was inefficient, SM may retrace deeper to create a mini “mid-week reversal” but before doing that they will want to remove the weak shorts since some broker platforms report a 10% increase of short positions over last week. Supply at the previous breakout level 1.3660 is already absorbed and SM will likely create buying pressure to test yesterday’s high and quite possibly spike the 1.3700 key level inducing breakout traders before reversing to remove weak longs before reversing, possibly the reversal will use the NFP news just as SM did yesterday except that it will likely be clearer as we will not have Euro news at the same time to create more whipsaw.
EU long levels:  1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3582, 1.3558 EU short levels:  1.3676, 1.3700, 1.3723, 1.3780, 1.3800, 1.3825 


GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (103pips) bear wide-bodied spinning top closing on very high vol>79days. The candle close and volume suggests that there is the commencement of buying into the candle. This may just signal a possible reverse upwards as climatic volume can already be seen in H4 with prices currently holding at the H4 short term demand level 1.6296 – 1.6320. The next H4 demand level (also short term and a possible manipulation level) is just below at 1.6255 – 1.6270. The Asian range is 1.6317 – 1.6341 currently. SM retests Asian high or higher before reversing down to test yesterday’s low. Although the SM bias is downwards at the moment, volume suggests that a push back upwards is likely soon. SM will likely position GU against the expected direction before the NFP news today and will likely reverse this upwards to take out the large number of shorts that have jumped in already. A H1/H4 close above 1.6400 will likely see a retest of the 1.6441 level. This would of course be in line with the anticipated EU push back upwards. After all, to move EU will require selling USD and EU has the largest percentage by volume (which will definitely move GU up), not only manipulating EG. Depending on the impact of the news, a reversal back upwards or cycle reset is still possible. To accommodate the possible impact of news, I have added more levels.
GU long levels:  1.6300, 1.6260, 1.6240 (breakout level), 1.6209, 1.6133 GU short levels: 1.6367, 1.6400, 1.6441, 1.6452, 1.6527, 1.6570, 1.6620