DAILY REVIEW 30 Jun 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (280pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol< 10 weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is an ultra-large spread (324pips) bull large body spinning top closing on ultrahigh vol>116days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga, with Greece declining a deal on Friday and the creditors denying Greece an extension over the weekend plus Greek banks being shut on Monday, quite possibly to prevent panic rush on banks all make for a combustible week ahead.

The Oanda order book shows overwhelming net trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934
Potential fresh supply: 1.1165-1.1192, 1.1210-1.1242
Trapped long (stop) orders: not visible in net positions
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1272-1.1288, 1.1300-1.1338

As expected, EU took out many weak shorts and retraced wiping back down after breaking above 1.1233 SM is likely to continue fading weak longs to 1.1118 or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1120-1.1100, 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934 

EU short levels: 1.1233, 1.1272-1.1288


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible.

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (242pips) bear large body spinning top slosing on high vol<5days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a  normal spread (126pips) bull closing nearly 1/2 off the high on ultra-high vol>120days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows no significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5657-1.5645, 1.5610-1.5592, 1.5554-1.5540, 1.5508-1.5495, 1.5480-1.5465
Potential supply stacks: 1.5796-1.5825, 1.5918-1.5952
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5690-1.5680, 1.5669-1.5655, 1.5640-1.5615, 1.5544-1.5525
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5746-1.5760, 1.5785-1.5821, 1.5926-1.5952  

SM is likely fade weak longs testing yesterday's Asia low 1.5661 or lower before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.5630--1.5610, 1.5542-1.5535 

GU short levels: 1.5802, 1.5827, 1.5916-1.5930

Posted at 05.11 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 29 Jun 2015

Hi folks, I'm back and the analysis is back too! Be blessed and have a great trading week!

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (280pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol< 10 weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (89pips) bear closing half off the low on low vol<24days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga, with Greece declining a deal on Friday and the creditors denying Greece an extension over the weekend plus Greek banks being shut on Monday, quite possibly to prevent panic rush on banks all make for a combustible week ahead.

The Oanda order book shows both net trapped long and short volumes but the more significant is trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934
Potential fresh supply: 1.1165-1.1192, 1.1210-1.1242
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0943-1.0922
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1103-1.1156, 1.1167-1.1188, 1.1211-1.1235, 1.1240-1.1250

The weekend news resulted in gaps galore over the Fx markets. EU opened with a whopping 171pips gap down and still looks to be attempting to "close" the gap taking out stops of the weak shorts.

EU long levels: 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934 

EU short levels: 1.1185-1.1200, 1.1220-1.1232


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible.

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (242pips) bear large body spinning top slosing on high vol<5days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a small spread (59pips) bear "doji" closing on low vol<3days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows no significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5655-1.5640, 1.5610-1.5592, 1.5554-1.5540, 1.5508-1.5495, 1.5480-1.5465
Potential supply stacks: 1.5762-1.5781, 1.5796-1.5825, 1.5918-1.5952
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5695-1.5680, 1.5640-1.5615, 1.5540-1.5525
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5766-1.5785, 1.5805-1.5821, 1.5920-1.5952  

GU opened gapped down 55pips and just about closed the gap before being pushed back downwards.   SM is likely fade weak longs testing Asia low 1.5661 or lower before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.5630--1.5610, 1.5542-1.5535 

GU short levels: 1.5765, 1.5802, 1.5827, 1.5916-1.5930

Posted at 05.10 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 22 Jun 2015

Hi folks, my internet access is intermittent and I will be on the move. Regret that I won't be posting anything probably until Thursday 25 June 2015. In the meantime, I wish you all a good trading week.

Posted at 01.24 am GMT

DAILY REVIEW 18 Jun 2015

Hi folks, FOMC went more or less as expected.  It's my daughter's graduation today so I will be unable to blog. Look for SM taking out the weak longs and go from there. Those of you who are my students, you know exactly what to look for. Have a great trading day.

Posted at 07.48 am GMT

DAILY REVIEW 17 Jun 2015

Hi folks, I'm in Europe at the moment and will try my best to get the analysis out daily again. 

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size a wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (302pips) bull closing 1/3 of the high on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (124pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<15days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga, mixed US data and yes/no rate hike all make for a beautiful ranging market that appears much like an accumulation of positions prior to a potential reversal for the EURUSD. The upcoming US data and FOMC statement will be decisive.

The Oanda order book shows both net trapped long and short volumes but the more significant is trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1155-1.1145, 1.1109-1.1098
Potential fresh supply: 1.1325-1.1335, 1.1345-1.1358, 1.1374-1.1385, 1.1397-1.1405
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1222-1.1215, 1.1205-1.1198, 1.1190-1.1178, 1.1155-1.1144
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1325-1.1340, 1.1350-1.1360

SM is likely to use the news events to whipsaw taking stops in both directions before eventually moving long. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around 1.1268 or higher before reversing to fade weak longs to around the 1.1200 key level or lower prior to the FOMC release.

EU long levels: 1.1220, 1.1200-1.1196, 1.1185, 1.1165, 1.1150-1.1142, 1.1130-1.1120 

EU short levels: 1.1268-1.1280, 1.1300, 1.1367-1.1386, 1.1450-1.1470


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK-  The candle is an above average spread (377pips) bull closing near the high on hig vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY - The candle is a below average (112pips) bull hammer closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows significant retail net long volumes in drawdown. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5481-1.5470, 1.5455-1.5445, 1.5405-1.5485, 1.5358-1.5339
Potential supply stacks: 1.5610-1.5622, 1.5692-1.5704, 1.5799-1.5811
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5491-1.5473, 1.5462-1.5454,1.5407-1.5392, 1.5368-1.5350
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5609-1.5622, 1.5641-1.5660, 1.5690-1.5702  

Prices did push higher despite weak UK data. With more data and the MPC minutes today, SM is likely positioning to whipsaw down and back up. SM is likely fade weak longs to 1.5600-1.5590 or lower before reversing back to test 1.5700 and higher.

GU long levels: 1.55600-1.5590, 1.5550-1.5540, 1.5520-1.5505, 1.5475, 1.5457, 1.5435, 1.5415, 1.5380, 1.5365, 

GU short levels: 1.5722-1.5735, 1.5775, 1.5814, 1.5827, 1.5870

Posted at 02.07 am GMT