DAILY REVIEW 30 Jun 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (280pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol< 10 weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is an ultra-large spread (324pips) bull large body spinning top closing on ultrahigh vol>116days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga, with Greece declining a deal on Friday and the creditors denying Greece an extension over the weekend plus Greek banks being shut on Monday, quite possibly to prevent panic rush on banks all make for a combustible week ahead.

The Oanda order book shows overwhelming net trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934
Potential fresh supply: 1.1165-1.1192, 1.1210-1.1242
Trapped long (stop) orders: not visible in net positions
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1272-1.1288, 1.1300-1.1338

As expected, EU took out many weak shorts and retraced wiping back down after breaking above 1.1233 SM is likely to continue fading weak longs to 1.1118 or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1120-1.1100, 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934 

EU short levels: 1.1233, 1.1272-1.1288


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible.

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (242pips) bear large body spinning top slosing on high vol<5days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a  normal spread (126pips) bull closing nearly 1/2 off the high on ultra-high vol>120days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows no significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5657-1.5645, 1.5610-1.5592, 1.5554-1.5540, 1.5508-1.5495, 1.5480-1.5465
Potential supply stacks: 1.5796-1.5825, 1.5918-1.5952
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5690-1.5680, 1.5669-1.5655, 1.5640-1.5615, 1.5544-1.5525
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5746-1.5760, 1.5785-1.5821, 1.5926-1.5952  

SM is likely fade weak longs testing yesterday's Asia low 1.5661 or lower before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.5630--1.5610, 1.5542-1.5535 

GU short levels: 1.5802, 1.5827, 1.5916-1.5930

Posted at 05.11 am EST