DAILY REVIEW 17 Jun 2015

Hi folks, I'm in Europe at the moment and will try my best to get the analysis out daily again. 

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size a wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (302pips) bull closing 1/3 of the high on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (124pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<15days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga, mixed US data and yes/no rate hike all make for a beautiful ranging market that appears much like an accumulation of positions prior to a potential reversal for the EURUSD. The upcoming US data and FOMC statement will be decisive.

The Oanda order book shows both net trapped long and short volumes but the more significant is trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1155-1.1145, 1.1109-1.1098
Potential fresh supply: 1.1325-1.1335, 1.1345-1.1358, 1.1374-1.1385, 1.1397-1.1405
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1222-1.1215, 1.1205-1.1198, 1.1190-1.1178, 1.1155-1.1144
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1325-1.1340, 1.1350-1.1360

SM is likely to use the news events to whipsaw taking stops in both directions before eventually moving long. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around 1.1268 or higher before reversing to fade weak longs to around the 1.1200 key level or lower prior to the FOMC release.

EU long levels: 1.1220, 1.1200-1.1196, 1.1185, 1.1165, 1.1150-1.1142, 1.1130-1.1120 

EU short levels: 1.1268-1.1280, 1.1300, 1.1367-1.1386, 1.1450-1.1470


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK-  The candle is an above average spread (377pips) bull closing near the high on hig vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY - The candle is a below average (112pips) bull hammer closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows significant retail net long volumes in drawdown. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5481-1.5470, 1.5455-1.5445, 1.5405-1.5485, 1.5358-1.5339
Potential supply stacks: 1.5610-1.5622, 1.5692-1.5704, 1.5799-1.5811
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5491-1.5473, 1.5462-1.5454,1.5407-1.5392, 1.5368-1.5350
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5609-1.5622, 1.5641-1.5660, 1.5690-1.5702  

Prices did push higher despite weak UK data. With more data and the MPC minutes today, SM is likely positioning to whipsaw down and back up. SM is likely fade weak longs to 1.5600-1.5590 or lower before reversing back to test 1.5700 and higher.

GU long levels: 1.55600-1.5590, 1.5550-1.5540, 1.5520-1.5505, 1.5475, 1.5457, 1.5435, 1.5415, 1.5380, 1.5365, 

GU short levels: 1.5722-1.5735, 1.5775, 1.5814, 1.5827, 1.5870

Posted at 02.07 am GMT