DAILY REVIEW 29 Jun 2015

Hi folks, I'm back and the analysis is back too! Be blessed and have a great trading week!

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size of wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (280pips) bear large body spinning top closing on low vol< 10 weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (89pips) bear closing half off the low on low vol<24days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga, with Greece declining a deal on Friday and the creditors denying Greece an extension over the weekend plus Greek banks being shut on Monday, quite possibly to prevent panic rush on banks all make for a combustible week ahead.

The Oanda order book shows both net trapped long and short volumes but the more significant is trapped short volume. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934
Potential fresh supply: 1.1165-1.1192, 1.1210-1.1242
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0943-1.0922
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1103-1.1156, 1.1167-1.1188, 1.1211-1.1235, 1.1240-1.1250

The weekend news resulted in gaps galore over the Fx markets. EU opened with a whopping 171pips gap down and still looks to be attempting to "close" the gap taking out stops of the weak shorts.

EU long levels: 1.0998-1.0985, 1.0948-1.0934 

EU short levels: 1.1185-1.1200, 1.1220-1.1232


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible.

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (242pips) bear large body spinning top slosing on high vol<5days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a small spread (59pips) bear "doji" closing on low vol<3days The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows no significant bias in retail trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5655-1.5640, 1.5610-1.5592, 1.5554-1.5540, 1.5508-1.5495, 1.5480-1.5465
Potential supply stacks: 1.5762-1.5781, 1.5796-1.5825, 1.5918-1.5952
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5695-1.5680, 1.5640-1.5615, 1.5540-1.5525
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5766-1.5785, 1.5805-1.5821, 1.5920-1.5952  

GU opened gapped down 55pips and just about closed the gap before being pushed back downwards.   SM is likely fade weak longs testing Asia low 1.5661 or lower before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.5630--1.5610, 1.5542-1.5535 

GU short levels: 1.5765, 1.5802, 1.5827, 1.5916-1.5930

Posted at 05.10 am EST