DAILY REVIEW 31 March 2015

We can expect Month-end flows where there can be strong moves followed by high volatility as SM closes their books.

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a below average spread (284pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on high vol>181weeks. The candle close and volume suggests possible absorption of selling. Technically the trend is still down.

Daily- The candle is a below average spread (84pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<8days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped long volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0800-1.0785, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0610-1.0590, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0890-1.0900, 1.0940-1.0955, 1.0990-1.1000
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0753-1.0740, 1.0685-1.0675, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0942-1.0967, 1.1039-1.1055, 1.1100

SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to 1.0750 or lower before reversing to resume the corrective move long. 

EU long levels: 1.0750, 1.0700, 1.0685, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.0850, 1.0920, 1.0950, 1.1011


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up.

Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a very large spread (198pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on high vol>7weeks. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of selling.

Day- The candle is a very large spread (148pips) bear closing nearly 1/2 off the low on low vol<8days. The candle close and volume suggests lack of selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped long volume.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4752-1.4742, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4900, 1.4990-1.5000, 1.5092-1.5115, 1.5195-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4990-1.5025, 1.5044-1.5055
Potential long stops: 1.4750-1.4720, 1.4635-1.4605, no significant lower volumes
SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.4750 or lower before reversing to resume the upward corrective move.  

GU long levels: 1.4750, 1.4720, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.4921, 1.5000, 1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 04.00 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 30 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a below average spread (284pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on high vol>181weeks. The candle close and volume suggests possible absorption of selling. Technically the trend is still down.

Daily- The candle is a large spread (147pips) doji closing on low vol<1day.The candle close and volume suggests more downside.  
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0800-1.0785, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0610-1.0590, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0940-1.0950, 1.0963-1.0975, 1.0995-1.1005, 1.1014-1.1030, 1.1040-1.1050, 1.1100
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0800-1.0775, 1.0685-1.0675, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0942-1.0967, 1.1039-1.1055, 1.1100

SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to 1.0800 or lower before reversing to resume the corrective move long. 

EU long levels: 1.0805-1.0795, 1.0762, 1.0550-1.0530, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.1050, 1.1155, 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up.

Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a very large spread (198pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on high vol>7weeks. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of selling.

Day- The candle is a large spread (125pips) bull closing 1/4 off the high on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped long volume.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4752-1.4742, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4990-1.5000, 1.5092-1.5115, 1.5195-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4915-1.4935, 1.4990-1.5025, 1.5044-1.5055
Potential long stops: 1.4803-1.4790, no significant lower volumes
SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.4800 or lower before reversing to resume the upward corrective move.  

GU long levels: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4770-1.4760, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.4921, 1.5000, 1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 02.17 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 27 March 2015

Dear friends,

I did not post anything today as I took time out to pay respects to the founding Prime Minister of our country, Singapore.

I wrote on PM Lee's Facebook.

A message to PM Lee :
PM Lee, the Bible tells us that Jesus said, "Greater love has no one than this, than to lay down one’s life for his friends. (John 15:13 NKJV) The measure of the man is seen and demonstrated in his immeasurable love for Singapore and it's people, serving them throughout his lifetime. The legacy that he left will no doubt carry on as our ministers and leaders embrace the moral principles of standards and service that he lived. He is God's gift and blessing to our nation and will be sorely missed. 

We all share your grief at the loss of your dad (maybe papa to you). Do take care and may God bless you and your family. Finally, in his (LKY's) words, "Merdeka"

Like my fellow Singaporeans, I grieve at the loss of a monumental leader and remember him today.

Sincerely,
Trek Trader

Posted at 08.00 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 26 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a large spread (571pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on high vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Daily- The candle is a normal spread (113pips) bull closing 1/2off the high on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but more upside can be expected.  
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak in spite of Draghi's comments yesterday with the Greece issue still pending resolution. 

The Oanda order book continues to show significantly more trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0950-1.0935, 1.0905-1.0890, 1.0880-1.0860, 1.0800-1.0785, 1.0750-1.0730, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0610-1.0590, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0995-1.1005, 1.1014-1.1030, 1.1040-1.1050, 1.1100
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0947-1.0924, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1027-1.1050, 1.1100

Price made a higher high yesterday and reversed on news rumours (as least that is the only real reason there is given that US data was mixed whilst Euro data was good). SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to Asia low 1.0956 or lower before reversing to resume the corrective move long. 

EU long levels: 1.0950-1.0920, 1.0886-1.0866, 1.0805-1.0795, 1.0762, 1.0550-1.0530, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.1050, 1.1155, 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up.

Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a large spread (530pips) bull closing nearly 1/2 off the high on low vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a large spread (123pips) bull closing 2/3 off the high on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a significant buildup of trapped long volume with long position stops closer than short position stops.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4990-1.5000, 1.5042-1.5083, 1.5092-1.5115, 1.5195-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4875-1.4905, 1.4980-1.5030, 1.5044-1.5075
Potential long stops: 1.4830-1.4806, 1.4800-1.4790, 1.4780-1.4760,1.4628-1.4520
Prices are still inside Friday's price action which in turn is within the FOMC statement day on 18 Mar 2015. We have key UK data later toady so we can expect price to be positioned against the intended direction. Prices spiked to 1.4953 and then reversed abruptly following US Dollar strength. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.4830 or lower before reversing to resume the upward corrective move.  

GU long levels: 1.4830, 1.4807-1.4790, 1.4770-1.4760, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 02.37 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 25 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a large spread (571pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on high vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Daily- The candle is a large spread (138pips) bear pseudo-upthrust closing about 1/4 off the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.  
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak in spite of Draghi's comments yesterday with the Greece issue still pending resolution. 

The Oanda order book still shows significantly more trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0875-1.0850, 1.0800-1.0785, 1.0750-1.0730, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0610-1.0590, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0995-1.1005, 1.1040-1.1050
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0886-1.0865, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0935-1.0966, 1.1027-1.1050

Price made a higher high yesterday as SM took stops and reversed on strong US data. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure and induce shorts around 1.0889 or lower before reversing to resume the corrective move long. 

EU long levels:1.0886-1.0866, 1.0805-1.0795, 1.0762, 1.0550-1.0530, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.10966, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1155, 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up.

Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a large spread (530pips) bull closing nearly 1/2 off the high on low vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a large spread (141pips) bear closing at the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and vol suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book does not show any significant trapped volume bias.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4990-1.5000, 1.5042-1.5083, 1.5092-1.5115, 1.5195-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4875-1.4905, 1.4980-1.5030, 1.5044-1.5075
Potential long stops: 1.4825-1.4810, 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4780-1.4760,1.4628-1.4520
Prices are still well within Friday's price action which in turn is within the FOMC statement day on 18 Mar 2015. Apart from the UK Mortgage data later, there is no major UK news release scheduled and movement will be dependent on Eur/US data today. Prices spiked and then fell yesterday as SM clearly took stops at the day high before reversing. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.4830 or lower before reversing to resume the upward corrective move.  

GU long levels: 1.4830, 1.4807-1.4790, 1.4770-1.4760, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 04.06 am EST