DAILY REVIEW 25 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a large spread (571pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on high vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Daily- The candle is a large spread (138pips) bear pseudo-upthrust closing about 1/4 off the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.  
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak in spite of Draghi's comments yesterday with the Greece issue still pending resolution. 

The Oanda order book still shows significantly more trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0875-1.0850, 1.0800-1.0785, 1.0750-1.0730, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0610-1.0590, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0995-1.1005, 1.1040-1.1050
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0886-1.0865, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0935-1.0966, 1.1027-1.1050

Price made a higher high yesterday as SM took stops and reversed on strong US data. SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure and induce shorts around 1.0889 or lower before reversing to resume the corrective move long. 

EU long levels:1.0886-1.0866, 1.0805-1.0795, 1.0762, 1.0550-1.0530, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.10966, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1155, 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up.

Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a large spread (530pips) bull closing nearly 1/2 off the high on low vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a large spread (141pips) bear closing at the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and vol suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book does not show any significant trapped volume bias.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4990-1.5000, 1.5042-1.5083, 1.5092-1.5115, 1.5195-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4875-1.4905, 1.4980-1.5030, 1.5044-1.5075
Potential long stops: 1.4825-1.4810, 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4780-1.4760,1.4628-1.4520
Prices are still well within Friday's price action which in turn is within the FOMC statement day on 18 Mar 2015. Apart from the UK Mortgage data later, there is no major UK news release scheduled and movement will be dependent on Eur/US data today. Prices spiked and then fell yesterday as SM clearly took stops at the day high before reversing. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.4830 or lower before reversing to resume the upward corrective move.  

GU long levels: 1.4830, 1.4807-1.4790, 1.4770-1.4760, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 04.06 am EST