DAILY REVIEW 31 March 2015

We can expect Month-end flows where there can be strong moves followed by high volatility as SM closes their books.

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a below average spread (284pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on high vol>181weeks. The candle close and volume suggests possible absorption of selling. Technically the trend is still down.

Daily- The candle is a below average spread (84pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<8days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped long volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0800-1.0785, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0610-1.0590, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0890-1.0900, 1.0940-1.0955, 1.0990-1.1000
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0753-1.0740, 1.0685-1.0675, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0942-1.0967, 1.1039-1.1055, 1.1100

SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to 1.0750 or lower before reversing to resume the corrective move long. 

EU long levels: 1.0750, 1.0700, 1.0685, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.0850, 1.0920, 1.0950, 1.1011


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up.

Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a very large spread (198pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on high vol>7weeks. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of selling.

Day- The candle is a very large spread (148pips) bear closing nearly 1/2 off the low on low vol<8days. The candle close and volume suggests lack of selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped long volume.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4752-1.4742, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4900, 1.4990-1.5000, 1.5092-1.5115, 1.5195-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4990-1.5025, 1.5044-1.5055
Potential long stops: 1.4750-1.4720, 1.4635-1.4605, no significant lower volumes
SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.4750 or lower before reversing to resume the upward corrective move.  

GU long levels: 1.4750, 1.4720, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.4921, 1.5000, 1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 04.00 am EST