DAILY REVIEW 24 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a large spread (571pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on high vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Daily- The candle is a ultralarge spread (203pips) bull closing slightly off the high on very high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak in spite of Draghi's comments yesterday with the Greece issue still pending resolution. 

The Oanda order book shows significantly more trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0875-1.0850, 1.0800-1.0785, 1.0750-1.0730, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0610-1.0590, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0950-1.0965, 1.0995-1.1005
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0896-1.0886, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0877-1.0905, 1.0965-1.1105

Price made a higher high yesterday but has since retraced. There is German data being released later. SM is likely to fade weak longs to around 1.0890 or lower before reversing to resume the corrective move long to test yesterday's high 1.0970 or higher. 

EU long levels:1.0875-1.0850, 1.0785, 1.0766, 1.0550-1.0530, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.0618, 1.0645,  1.0683, 1.0695-1.0705, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0900, 1.0975, 1.1100, 1.1020, 1.1155, 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand.
Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a large spread (530pips) bull closing nearly 1/2 off the high on low vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a large spread (151pips) bear "hammer" closing on very high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests commencement of selling.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book reveals more trapped short volume overall.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4990-1.5000, 1.5042-1.5083, 1.5092-1.5115, 1.5195-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4980-1.5030, 1.5044-1.5075
Potential long stops: 1.4840-1.4812, 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4780-1.4760,1.4628-1.4520
Friday's candle is an inside-day of Thursday and yesterday's is also an "inside day" of Friday. There is UK CPI data later and it is likely that prices will be positioned against the intended direction prior to the release. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.4900 or lower before reversing to resume the upward corrective move.  

GU long levels: 1.4912-1.4879, 1.4837, 1.4807-1.4790, 1.4760, 1.4700

GU short levels:  1.4990, 1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 04.06 am EST