DAILY REVIEW 5 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Price has broken below the 1.10972 pivot and headed further downward. Possible retracement short levels will be around the breakout level. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a near average spread (220pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<7weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a large spread (124pips) bear closing near the low on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.    
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak. The continued good US data plus continuing issues concerning Greece make for a strong bearish sentiment. The market has pushed lower overnight in anticipation of the ECB rate decision today and also the ECB decision on how the QE will be implemented as it commences this month.

The Oanda order book shows overall more volume of trapped long positions with price closer to the lower order stacks.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1021-1.1010, 1.1000-1.0090
Potential fresh supply: no clearly discernible levels, 1.1200, 1.1300, 1.1400
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1160-1.1140, 1.1120-1.1110, 1.1100-1.1090 
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1021-1.1010, 1.1000-1.0090

The market has been heavily discounted prior to  the key ECB event today and of course also the US NFP tomorrow. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the low of 1.1024 or lower.  

EU long levels:1.1020, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1100, 1.1155, 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is still likely headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective reversal level but the current monthly cycle looks corrective long bias.
Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a below average spread (219pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol<8weeks. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of buying pressure. 

Day- The candle is a large spread (120pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

GU has pushed down lower on US Dollar strength and a poor UK services data and as expected the Oanda order book shows more volume of trapped long position traders. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5200-1.5210, 1.4990-80, 1.4950-40 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5271-1.5285, 1.5295-1.5305, 1.5313-1.5322, 1.5395-1.5405, 1.5421-1.5435, 1.5445-1.5455,1.5465-1.5475, 1.5490-1.5505, 1.5523-1.5551, 1.5650, 1.5700
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5265-1.5285, 1.5400-1.5425, 1.5540-1.5575, 1.5600, 1.5615-1.5620
Potential long stops: 1.5225-1.5180
SM is likely to fade weak longs to the 1.5224 level or lower before reversing upward.

GU long levels: 1.5220, 1.5180, 1.5168, 1.5155, 1.5100, 1.5180, 1.4988, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels:  1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500,1.5550, 1.5573, 1.5590, 1.5600, 1.5618, 1.5675

Posted at 4.39 am EST