DAILY REVIEW 26 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a large spread (571pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on high vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Daily- The candle is a normal spread (113pips) bull closing 1/2off the high on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but more upside can be expected.  
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak in spite of Draghi's comments yesterday with the Greece issue still pending resolution. 

The Oanda order book continues to show significantly more trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0950-1.0935, 1.0905-1.0890, 1.0880-1.0860, 1.0800-1.0785, 1.0750-1.0730, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0610-1.0590, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0995-1.1005, 1.1014-1.1030, 1.1040-1.1050, 1.1100
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0947-1.0924, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1027-1.1050, 1.1100

Price made a higher high yesterday and reversed on news rumours (as least that is the only real reason there is given that US data was mixed whilst Euro data was good). SM is likely to maintain the selling pressure to Asia low 1.0956 or lower before reversing to resume the corrective move long. 

EU long levels: 1.0950-1.0920, 1.0886-1.0866, 1.0805-1.0795, 1.0762, 1.0550-1.0530, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.1050, 1.1155, 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up.

Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a large spread (530pips) bull closing nearly 1/2 off the high on low vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Day- The candle is a large spread (123pips) bull closing 2/3 off the high on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows a significant buildup of trapped long volume with long position stops closer than short position stops.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4990-1.5000, 1.5042-1.5083, 1.5092-1.5115, 1.5195-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4875-1.4905, 1.4980-1.5030, 1.5044-1.5075
Potential long stops: 1.4830-1.4806, 1.4800-1.4790, 1.4780-1.4760,1.4628-1.4520
Prices are still inside Friday's price action which in turn is within the FOMC statement day on 18 Mar 2015. We have key UK data later toady so we can expect price to be positioned against the intended direction. Prices spiked to 1.4953 and then reversed abruptly following US Dollar strength. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around 1.4830 or lower before reversing to resume the upward corrective move.  

GU long levels: 1.4830, 1.4807-1.4790, 1.4770-1.4760, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 02.37 am EST