DAILY REVIEW 13 March 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 
Monthly- The candle is a below average spread (351pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Week- The candle is a large spread (401pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a very large spread (189pips) bull large-body spinning top closing on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests buying and possibly more upside.  
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak with the Greece issue still unresolved. US Dollar strength continued yesterday to the key pyschological level of 1.050 and breached it before huge profit taking by SM, fading all the way up to remove weak shorts by nearly 190pips. 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volumes as the majority of trapped longs have been removed with no clear demand levels to be seen for some distance. Meaning that there could be a potential short fade move soon but even so, the bias remains pretty much short. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0588-1.0575, 1.0543-1.0552, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: no significant levels, 1.0600, 1.0700,1.0725-1.0740, 1.0750-1.0762, 1.0895-1.0905, 1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1100, 1.1200, 1.1300, 1.1400
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0575-1.0563, 1.0491-1.0475
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0643-1.0653, 1.0682-1.0705,1.0750, 1.0800

SM is likely to induce shorts to the breakout level of 1.0550 or lower before resuming the fade upwards on SM cycle. The bias is still short so SM may also just keep going to test the low pivot and then reverse for a bigger corrective move as it is a key level that may hold. This is the monthly pivot from March 2003. 

EU long levels:1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.0645,  1.0683, 1.0695-1.0705, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0900, 1.0975, 1.1100, 1.1020, 1.1155, 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1533, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU is still likely headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective reversal level. Currently price is headed toward the 1.4850 monthly pivot which is also a possible level of support/demand.

Month- The candle is an above average spread (564pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
Week- The candle is a large spread (396pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Day- The candle is a very large spread (176pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

BOE's George Carney speech sent the GU nose diving yesterday. Accordingly, the Oanda order book reveals more trapped long volume at this time. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.4845-1.4800 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4890-1.4920, 1.5020-1.5033, 1.5094-1.5105, 1.5192-1.5220
Potential short (trapped) stops: no significant levels, 1.4935-1.4977, 1.5090-1.5110, 1.5190-1.5205
Potential long stops: 1.4845-1.4826, 1.48800-1.4785 
SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the 1.4812 pivot or lower before reversing. A close below 1.4800 will expose the next drop lower. This is also a possible corrective reversal level. 

GU long levels: 1.4812, 1.4800 

GU short levels:  1.4900, 1.4940-1.4950, 1.4967, 1.5020, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 03.42 am EST