DAILY REVIEW 30 October 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a small spread (372pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (390pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (83 pips) bull closing at the high on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The last NFP data coupled with the recent dovish FOMC meeting makes for a less than appealing Dollar long bias. Then last week we had Mario Draghi's butcher's knife applied to the Euro. Structurally, it is still likely that prices will retest the previous monthly pivot breakout level of 1.1640 or higher as short stops to 1.1711 have largely been cleared out and it will take firm fundamental policy change such as an interest rate decision such as a clear FED policy on USD rate hike implementation to push EURUSD to the magical parity level. Yesterday, the FED's position is that they are "ready to hike" interest rates in December. This is the policy decision that together with a dovish ECB will likely push EU to the parity level.

The Oanda order book shows more net trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.0900-1.0890

Potential supply stacks: 1.1088-1.1095, 1.1138-1.1150, 1.1193-1.1204, 1.1292-1.1302

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0890-1.0870

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0994-1.1102, 1.1026-1.1075, 1.1098-1.1106

SM continued a strong fade upwards on the back of poor US data release yesterday. SM is likely to continue to fade weak shorts to the 1.1000 key level or higher before reversing. Funny, price just broke through the 1.1000 as I write.....   

EU long levels: 1.0900, 1.0877-1.0861, 1.0820-1.0807 

EU short levels: 1.0950-1.100, 1.0970-1.0985, 1.0992-1.1000, 1.1024-1.1038, 1.1066-1.1076 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (551pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. The candle close suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (204pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<61weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (79pips) bull closing near the high on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows thin volume with significantly more trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5213-1.5192, 1.5123-1.5106
Potential supply stacks: 1.5435-1.5450

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5247-1.5230, 1.5158-1.5138, 1.5107-1.5090

Potential short (trapped) stops:  1.5344-1.5365, 1.5400-1.5410, 1.5490-1.5515, 1.5535-1.5570, 1.5580-1.5592

SM is likely to retest the current day high 1.5357 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5247-1.5231, 1.5200-1.5195

GU short levels: 1.5357, 1.5375, 1.5400-1.5410, 1.5435

Posted at 3.08 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 29 October 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a small spread (372pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (390pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a small spread (48pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The last NFP data coupled with the recent dovish FOMC meeting makes for a less than appealing Dollar long bias. Then last week we had Mario Draghi's butcher's knife applied to the Euro. Structurally, it is still likely that prices will retest the previous monthly pivot breakout level of 1.1640 or higher as short stops to 1.1711 have largely been cleared out and it will take firm fundamental policy change such as an interest rate decision such as a clear FED policy on USD rate hike implementation to push EURUSD to the magical parity level. Yesterday, the FED's position is that they are "ready to hike" interest rates in December. This is the policy decision that together with a dovish ECB will likely push EU to the parity level.

The Oanda order book shows more net trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  Not applicable

Potential supply stacks: 1.1145-1.1160, 1.1193-1.1204, 1.1292-1.1302

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0895-1.0861

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0949-1.0983, 1.1015-1.1075, 1.1168-1.1179

SM will likely position prices prior to the US GDP data release later today. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.0950 level or higher before reversing.   

EU long levels: 1.0877-1.0861, 1.0820-1.0807 

EU short levels: 1.0950-1.100, 1.0970-1.0985, 1.0992-1.1000, 1.1024-1.1038, 1.1066-1.1076 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (551pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. The candle close suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (204pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<61weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear closing slightly off the low on very high vol>40days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows thin volume with more trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5213-1.5192, 1.5123-1.5106
Potential supply stacks: 1.5450-1.5484

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5247-1.5230, 1.5158-1.5138, 1.5107-1.5090

Potential short (trapped) stops:  1.5300-1.5312, 1.5329-1.5363, 1.5489-1.5511, 1.5527-1.5538, 1.5550-1.5563

SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.5290 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5247-1.5231, 1.5200-1.5195

GU short levels: 1.5298-1.5305, 1.5325-1.5335, 1.5350, 1.5363

Posted at 12.45 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 2928 October 2015 (my apologies for the wrong date earlier)

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a small spread (372pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (390pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a small spread (48pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The last NFP data coupled with the recent dovish FOMC meeting makes for a less than appealing Dollar long bias. Then last week we had Mario Draghi's butcher's knife applied to the Euro. Structurally, it is still likely that prices will retest the previous monthly pivot breakout level of 1.1640 or higher as short stops to 1.1711 have largely been cleared out and it will take firm fundamental policy change such as an interest rate decision such as a clear FED policy on USD rate hike implementation to push EURUSD to the magical parity level. Given the state of the US data releases blowing hot and cold, it is difficult for the FED to justify such an action. The coming FOMC meeting 27-28 Oct will in current circumstances present a great opportunity for SM to induce shorts on the release before reversing. 

The Oanda order book shows more net trapped short position volumes. 

Potential demand stacks:  Not applicable

Potential supply stacks: 1.1145-1.1160, 1.1193-1.1204, 1.1292-1.1302

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1000-1.0955

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1083-1.1090, 1.1135-1.1145

Prices did retest slightly higher to 1.1077 as expected yesterday. However, with the FOMC minutes release and the FED interest rate decision due later today, SM is likely to retest the yesterday's high or higher (also a retest of trendline break confluence) before reversing.   

EU long levels: 1.1000, 1.0975, 1.0958, 1.0948

EU short levels: 1.1090-1.100, 1.1145-1.1150, 1.1195-1.1200, 1.1315-1.1320  


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (551pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. The candle close suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (204pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<61weeks. The candle close suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (76pips) bear closing off the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows thin volume with more trapped short positions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5220-1.5191
Potential supply stacks: 1.5460-1.5500, 1.5595-1.5605, 1.5700-1.5710

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5289-1.5269, 1.5190-1.5180, 1.5107-1.5090

Potential short (trapped) stops:  1.5312-1.5366, 1.5378-1.5408, 1.5499-1.5532, 1.5552-1.5563, 1.5600-1.5636

SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.5360 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5335-1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5214, 1.5200-1.5195

GU short levels: 1.5380-1.5385, 1.5408-1.5419, 1.5457, 1.5475-1.5485, 1.5522-1.5533, 1.5608, 1.5637, 1.5653

Posted at 3.18 am EST