DAILY REVIEW 7 September 2015

Dear friends,

If you follow this blog, you'll have noticed that I've not been posting everyday. September 2015 was only an increase of slightly over 10% equity for me as I have not taken many trades for personal reasons and I expect this month to be the same. I will post every Monday and as often as time permits. To ensure that you are updated each time that I post, I would encourage you to follow me on twitter @vseowth or my facebook page VSAnalytiks.  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a small spread (372pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on low vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (183pips) bull closing on low vol>3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests selling absorption. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (107pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Last Friday's NFP data coupled with the recent dovish FOMC meeting makes for a less than appealing Dollar long bias despite talks of an impending rate hike this year continuing to weigh heavily. It is likely that prices will retest the previous monthly pivot breakout level of 1.1640 or higher as short stops to 1.1711 have largely been cleared out and it will take firm fundamental policy change such as an interest rate decision such as a USD rate hike to push EURUSD all the way back down again, that is not likely till the next FOMC meeting 27-28 Oct, a great opportunity for SM to build short positions prior to the expected tightening. 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short position volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1244-1.1233, 1.1205-1.1194, 1.1100-1.1080, 1.0960-1.0940 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1300-1.1322 
Long (stop) orders: 1.1207-1.1196, 1.1002-1.0965 
Short (stop) orders: 1.1285-1.1293, 1.1318-1.1344 (low volumes)

The US Dollar weakened on the back of poor ISM data released and as expected, weak shorts are now in the cage ready to be milked. SM are likely to test the 1.1250 level or lower before continuing the upward move. 

EU long levels: 1.1235, 1.1210-1,1200, 1.1180-1.1170, 1.1150, 1.1135, 1.1104, 1.1038, 1.1016, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1335-1.1355,  1.1371, 1.1394, 1.1420-1.1430, 1.1450, 1.1530-1.1546, 1.1570, 1.1620-1.1627 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (551pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. The candle close suggests more downside.

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (133pips) doji closing on low vol<58weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (103pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows very thin volume with fresh short trapped positions. 

Potential demand stacks: no significant stacks
Potential supply stacks: 1.5295-1.5320, 1.5493-1.5510

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5223-1.5210, 1.5135-1.5124, 1.5102-1.5056, 1.4969-1.4919

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5240-1.5275, 1.5323-1.5334, 1.550-1.5365, 1.5440-1.1560

The Halifax data was not particular good but with stops nearby above, it will be too tempting for SM to reverse just now. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to 1.5277 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5215

GU short levels: 1.5350, 1.5363-1.5375, 1.5438-1.5450, 1.5485

Posted at 11.07 pm EST