DAILY REVIEW 30 January 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. Week- The candle is a very large spread (565pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a normal spread (106pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.   
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak. The FOMC statement reveals a new hawkish stance where "considerable time" for an interest rate hike was dropped and the changes "Strong/Solid Jobs Gains", "Solid Pace/Moderate Pace" for the US economy resulting in a strengthening of the US Dollar. 

Prices pushed to the 1.1261 before reversing up past Wednesday's breakout level to induce shorts and taking out stops at the day high of 1.1367 before reversing back down to 1.1278. Prices have retraced higher as weak shorts have been removed from the market. Based on the Oanda order book, fresh demand is at 1.1275, 1.1210-00, 1.1100, 1.1050 The most significant long (stop) orders are between 1.1250-1.1200 This shows that there are hardly any traders long. Potential fresh supply at 1.1500 Sentiment remains clearly bearish with fresh lot of traders entering new shorts. The daily candle is technically a "no demand" candle. SM is likely to create selling pressure to around the 1.1250 level, a break below will see the 1.1200 level tested. These are still possible reversal correction levels to position flows for Monday as there are significant volume of traders trapped short and SM may want to take out their stops if they don't have enough orders. The Euro CPI data at 5am EST and US GDP data at 8.30am EST are likely to be the catalyst for the moves.

EU long levels: 1.1250, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped further on USD strength. It is headed to test the 1.4812 pivot which is a potential corrective move level. Week- The weekly candle is an above average spread (261pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Day- The candle is a very large spread (144pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol<12days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

Prices tanked yesterday on a combination of US Dollar strength and EURGBP correction. There is almost an equal volume trapped short and long. Potential short stops at around 1.5230, 1.5300. Potential long (trapped) stops at 1.4950-00 There is no significant potential fresh supply, possible short term manipulation level for a short entry is at 1.5085 or around the NY session breakout low. SM is likely to continue fading weak longs to around 1.5085 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend.

GU long levels: 1.5000, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5085, 1.5112, 1.5162, 1.5185, 1.5222, 1.5268, 1.5298, 1.5326, 1.5350, 1.5347, 1.5415, 1.5478

Posted at 0.45 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 29 January 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. Week- The candle is a very large spread (565pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a normal spread (107pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggets more downside.   
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak with the US durable goods data. The FOMC statement reveals a new hawkish stance where "considerable time" for an interest rate hike was dropped and the changes "Strong/Solid Jobs Gains", "Solid Pace/Moderate Pace" for the US economy resulting in a strengthening of the US Dollar. 

SM basically used the FOMC release to wash and rinse to reverse positions before pushing prices back down. Prices have already made a lower low from yesterday's close as expected. Based on the Oanda order book, fresh demand is at 1.1250, 1.1210-00, 1.1100, 1.1050 A lack of significant long (stop) orders with just a smattering spread along the 1.1200-1.1260 range shows that there are hardly any traders long. Potential fresh supply at 1.1500 Sentiment remains clearly bearish with fresh lot of traders entering shorts on the FOMC release. The US data for New Home sales and also the Euro data earlier will likely position prices against the intended direction. SM is likely to create selling pressure to around the 1.1250 level or lower before reversing to fade the weak longs to the 1.1500-20 level or higher.  

EU long levels: 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped on USD strength and headed to test the 1.4812 pivot. A potential corrective move level. Week- The weekly candle is an above average spread (261pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Day- The candle is a normal spread (87pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggets more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

The USD strength on FOMC release pushed prices lower. There is still significant volume trapped short with their potential stops at around 1.5100, 1.5070-50 and 1.5000. Potential long (trapped) stops at 1.5120, 1.5050, 1.4950-00 Potential fresh supply at 1.5260-80, 1.5300, 1.5340-50, 1.5400 SM is likely to continue selling pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.5110 or lower before reversing to resume the upward restock of short positions. This is likely a corrective move as the trend is still down.

GU long levels: 1.5110, 1.5050, 1.5000, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5162, 1.5185, 1.5222, 1.5268, 1.5298, 1.5326, 1.5350, 1.5347, 1.5415, 1.5478

Posted at 1.52 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 28 January 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. Week- The candle is a very large spread (565pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a ultralarge spread (198pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.   
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Poorer than expected US data released yesterday gave the resulted in prices going higher. Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak with the US durable goods data. 

SM basically continued their wash and rinse yesterday pushing down to 1.1222 before reversing upwards removing stops all the way to 1.1421. Prices have since retraced. Based on the Oanda order book, fresh demand is at 1.1330-00, 1.1210-00, 1.1100, 1.1050 There is significant volume trapped short with stops at 1.1430, 1.1450, 1.1500 Potential fresh supply at 1.1500 SM is likely to create seelling pressure to around the 1.1310 level or lower before reversing to fade the weak longs to the 1.1500-20 level or higher.

EU long levels: 1.1310, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped on USD strength and headed to test the 1.4812 pivot. A potential corrective move level. Week- The weekly candle is an above average spread (261pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Day- The candle is a very large spread (166pips) closing just off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

Yesterday, SM used the poor UK data yesterday to trap shorts and then take them out completely. Prices continue to push lower in Asia after SM cleared stops to 1.5222 yesterday. There is a significant volume trapped short with their potential stops at around 1.5150 and 1.5000. Potential long (trapped) stops at 1.5150, 1.4980-30. Potential fresh supply at 1.5260-80, 1.5300, 1.5340-50, 1.5400 SM is likely to continue selling pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.5150 or lower before reversing to resume the upward restock of short positions. This is likely a corrective move as the trend is still down.

GU long levels: 1.5150, 1.5110, 1.5050, 1.5000, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5222, 1.5268, 1.5298, 1.5326, 1.5350, 1.5347, 1.5415, 1.5478

Posted at 0.56 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 26 January 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. Week- The candle is a very large spread (565pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a very large spread (198pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.   
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: The Greek Syriza party formed a coalition government yesterday with Alexis Tsipras sworn in as Prime Minister after reaching a coalition agreement with ANEL. Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak with the US durable goods data due for release at 8.30am EST today.

Based on the Oanda order book, fresh demand at 1.1210-00, 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000 Short (trapped) stops at 1.1300, 1.1400 Potential fresh supply at 1.1300, 1.1350 There is significant volume trapped short. SM is likely to push to around the 1.1220 level or lower before reversing to fade the weak longs to the 1.1300 level or higher.

EU long levels: 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1300, 1.1375, 1.1400, 1.1450, 1.1500


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped on USD strength and headed to test the 1.4812 pivot. A potential corrective move level. Week- The weekly candle is an above average spread (261pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 
Day- The candle is a normal spread (116pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

Prices continue to push higher in Asia. Potential long (trapped) stops are at around 1.4940-50 and 1.4880. Small fresh demand at around 1.4950, 1.4900 Potential long (trapped) stops at 1.5120, 1.5150, 1.5200. Fresh supply at 1.5200 SM is likely to continue buying pressure to fade weak shorts to a.15110 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. There is also UK news on the GDP at 4.30am EST so it is likely SM will use it to spike and reverse. The trend bias remains down but we are close to a monthly demand level for a potential correction or perhaps even reversal level.

GU long levels: 1.5050, 1.5000, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5120, 1.5150, 1.5200

Posted at 0.31 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 25 January 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. Week- The candle is a very large spread (565pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is an ultralarge spread (259pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on very high vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.   
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: The Greek Syriza party is said to be in talks to form a coalition government, possibly by this Wednesday. The Euro remains weak after the ECB's QE bombshell. Prices opened gapped down by 59pips and has made a new low at 1.1097.

Based on the Oanda order book, fresh demand at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000 Short (trapped) stops at 1.200-30, 1.1300 Potential fresh supply at 1.1200, 1.1300 There is significant volume trapped short. SM is likely to push to around the 1.1250 level or higher before resuming the downtrend.

EU long levels: 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1220, 1.1250, 1.1375, 1.1400, 1.1450, 1.1500


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped on USD strength and headed to test the 1.4812 pivot. A potential corrective move level. Week- The weekly candle is an above average spread (261pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Day- The candle is a normal spread (84pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests buying activity but more downside is expected. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

Prices opened gapped up 19pips. After the wash and rinse, there are no significant supply order stacks in the Oanda order book. Potential long (trapped) stops are at around 1.4940-50 and 1.4880. Small fresh demand at around 1.4950, 1.4900 Potential long (trapped) stops at 1.5030-65, 1.5100-20, 1.5150. Fresh supply around 1.5050, 1.5070-1.5110, 1.5200 SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test Friday's low 1.4950 or lower before reversing to fade weak shorts. The trend bias remains down but we are close to a monthly demand level for a potential correction or perhaps even reversal level.

GU long levels: 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5050, 1.5100, 1.5150, 1.5200

Posted at 1.01 am EST