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EU Analysis:
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.1639 Supply: short-term: 1.2150, 1.2205, 1.2260, 1.2300, 1.2356, 1.2375, 1.2425, 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600
Background: The fundamentals of the Euro remains weak. The upcoming general elections in Greece and the UK will result in volatility as and when news are released.
Prices made a lower low yesterday and has since retraced. Prices pushed back above 1.1800 as I write. Based on the order book, there is a significant volume of traders trapped short below the 1.1800 level. Possible short stop orders are at 1.1855-60, 1.1900 and possible long take profits at 1.1900 and 1.2000 There are no significant demand orders stacks except at 1.1755- 1.1765 but these are just retail orders that can easily be absorbed. SM is likely to continue fading to remove weak shorts up to the 1.855 level or higher in a "corrective" move to re-accumulate short positions pre-NFP. If NFP data is good, we should see the USD strengthen and EU tank. However, in the event of the data being poorer than expected, SM may have the catalyst required to spike up to 1.1900 or even 1.2000 or higher before reversing to continue the downtrend. Any long position is counter-trend and "corrective" as the technical trend is still down.
Prices made a lower low yesterday and has since retraced. Prices pushed back above 1.1800 as I write. Based on the order book, there is a significant volume of traders trapped short below the 1.1800 level. Possible short stop orders are at 1.1855-60, 1.1900 and possible long take profits at 1.1900 and 1.2000 There are no significant demand orders stacks except at 1.1755- 1.1765 but these are just retail orders that can easily be absorbed. SM is likely to continue fading to remove weak shorts up to the 1.855 level or higher in a "corrective" move to re-accumulate short positions pre-NFP. If NFP data is good, we should see the USD strengthen and EU tank. However, in the event of the data being poorer than expected, SM may have the catalyst required to spike up to 1.1900 or even 1.2000 or higher before reversing to continue the downtrend. Any long position is counter-trend and "corrective" as the technical trend is still down.
EU long levels: 1.1750, 1.1725, 1.1639
EU short levels: 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.2025, 1.2150, 1.2205, 1.2260, 1.2300GU Analysis:
GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (83pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests buying activity but likely corrective and more downside expectation.
Demand: Weekly/Daily: 1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600
Background: Continued USD strength, poor economic performance and political uncertainty keeps the GBP weak.
Prices have retraced after yesterday's new low of 1.5033. With the UK Manufacturing and Trade Balance data being released at 4.30 am EST today, we can expect it to be the catalyst for the move pre-FOMC. There is no demand level to trade from until the 1.4850 level to the 1.4812 pivot. There are no significant order stacks till 1.4990 - 1.5000 Possible short stops are also not significant with 1.5130, 1.5160, 1.5200, 1.5220-30 as the likely candidates. The order book shows more traders trapped short and SM is likely to maintain buying pressure fade these weak short to around the 1.5130 or higher before resuming the downward move. The bias is DOWN and any long position is corrective and temporary.
GU long levels: 1.5030, 1.5000, 1.4938, 1.4870, 1.4812
Posted at 00.40 am EST
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