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EU Analysis:
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.1639 Supply: short-term: 1.2150, 1.2205, 1.2260, 1.2300, 1.2356, 1.2375, 1.2425, 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600
Background: The fundamentals of the Euro remains weak. The upcoming general elections in Greece and the UK will result in volatility as and when news are released.
The FOMC minutes release was almost a non-event as prices hardly moved further up in spite of there being no committed time frame to increase rates. The good ADP data also meant that any further push up would be capped giving rise to a swing of only 50 pips for this major news event. Prices are still within the 1.1807 - 1.1858 range as I write. Based on the order book, possible short take profits are at 1.1800 and possible long take profits at 1.1900 and 1.2000 There are no significant orders stacks except at 1.1800. SM is likely to create selling pressure to test the current low at 1.1801 or lower and then reverse to remove weak shorts upto the 1.200 level or higher in a "corrective" move to re-accumulate short positions. Any long position is counter-trend and "corrective" as the technical trend is still down.
The FOMC minutes release was almost a non-event as prices hardly moved further up in spite of there being no committed time frame to increase rates. The good ADP data also meant that any further push up would be capped giving rise to a swing of only 50 pips for this major news event. Prices are still within the 1.1807 - 1.1858 range as I write. Based on the order book, possible short take profits are at 1.1800 and possible long take profits at 1.1900 and 1.2000 There are no significant orders stacks except at 1.1800. SM is likely to create selling pressure to test the current low at 1.1801 or lower and then reverse to remove weak shorts upto the 1.200 level or higher in a "corrective" move to re-accumulate short positions. Any long position is counter-trend and "corrective" as the technical trend is still down.
EU long levels: 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1725, 1.1639
EU short levels: 1.2025, 1.2150, 1.2205, 1.2260, 1.2300GU Analysis:
GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (100pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on average vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
Demand: Weekly/Daily: 1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600
Background: The FOMC minutes and subsequent USD strength coupled with the poor UK services data continues pressure on the GBP.
SM is likely to create selling pressure to test the current low at 1.5053 or lower before moving back up to reload short positions. There is no demand level to trade from until the 1.4850 level to the 1.4812 pivot. There are no significant supply order stacks but possibly some at 1.5050 and 1.4990 - 1.5000 The bias is DOWN and any long position is corrective and temporary.
GU long levels: 1.5030, 1.5000, 1.4938, 1.4870, 1.4812
Posted at 2.40 am EST
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