DAILY REVIEW 28 January 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. Week- The candle is a very large spread (565pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a ultralarge spread (198pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.   
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Poorer than expected US data released yesterday gave the resulted in prices going higher. Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak with the US durable goods data. 

SM basically continued their wash and rinse yesterday pushing down to 1.1222 before reversing upwards removing stops all the way to 1.1421. Prices have since retraced. Based on the Oanda order book, fresh demand is at 1.1330-00, 1.1210-00, 1.1100, 1.1050 There is significant volume trapped short with stops at 1.1430, 1.1450, 1.1500 Potential fresh supply at 1.1500 SM is likely to create seelling pressure to around the 1.1310 level or lower before reversing to fade the weak longs to the 1.1500-20 level or higher.

EU long levels: 1.1310, 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped on USD strength and headed to test the 1.4812 pivot. A potential corrective move level. Week- The weekly candle is an above average spread (261pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Day- The candle is a very large spread (166pips) closing just off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

Yesterday, SM used the poor UK data yesterday to trap shorts and then take them out completely. Prices continue to push lower in Asia after SM cleared stops to 1.5222 yesterday. There is a significant volume trapped short with their potential stops at around 1.5150 and 1.5000. Potential long (trapped) stops at 1.5150, 1.4980-30. Potential fresh supply at 1.5260-80, 1.5300, 1.5340-50, 1.5400 SM is likely to continue selling pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.5150 or lower before reversing to resume the upward restock of short positions. This is likely a corrective move as the trend is still down.

GU long levels: 1.5150, 1.5110, 1.5050, 1.5000, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5222, 1.5268, 1.5298, 1.5326, 1.5350, 1.5347, 1.5415, 1.5478

Posted at 0.56 am EST