DAILY REVIEW 26 January 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. Week- The candle is a very large spread (565pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a very large spread (198pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.   
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: The Greek Syriza party formed a coalition government yesterday with Alexis Tsipras sworn in as Prime Minister after reaching a coalition agreement with ANEL. Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak with the US durable goods data due for release at 8.30am EST today.

Based on the Oanda order book, fresh demand at 1.1210-00, 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000 Short (trapped) stops at 1.1300, 1.1400 Potential fresh supply at 1.1300, 1.1350 There is significant volume trapped short. SM is likely to push to around the 1.1220 level or lower before reversing to fade the weak longs to the 1.1300 level or higher.

EU long levels: 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1300, 1.1375, 1.1400, 1.1450, 1.1500


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped on USD strength and headed to test the 1.4812 pivot. A potential corrective move level. Week- The weekly candle is an above average spread (261pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 
Day- The candle is a normal spread (116pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

Prices continue to push higher in Asia. Potential long (trapped) stops are at around 1.4940-50 and 1.4880. Small fresh demand at around 1.4950, 1.4900 Potential long (trapped) stops at 1.5120, 1.5150, 1.5200. Fresh supply at 1.5200 SM is likely to continue buying pressure to fade weak shorts to a.15110 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. There is also UK news on the GDP at 4.30am EST so it is likely SM will use it to spike and reverse. The trend bias remains down but we are close to a monthly demand level for a potential correction or perhaps even reversal level.

GU long levels: 1.5050, 1.5000, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5120, 1.5150, 1.5200

Posted at 0.31 am EST