DAILY REVIEW 29 January 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has closed below the weekly/daily 1.1376 pivot and does not have any significant demand level till the 1.1000 - 1.0762 pivot potential demand level. Bias is strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the previous breakout levels. Week- The candle is a very large spread (565pips) bear closing off the low on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Daily- The candle is a normal spread (107pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggets more downside.   
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.1000, 1.0762  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak with the US durable goods data. The FOMC statement reveals a new hawkish stance where "considerable time" for an interest rate hike was dropped and the changes "Strong/Solid Jobs Gains", "Solid Pace/Moderate Pace" for the US economy resulting in a strengthening of the US Dollar. 

SM basically used the FOMC release to wash and rinse to reverse positions before pushing prices back down. Prices have already made a lower low from yesterday's close as expected. Based on the Oanda order book, fresh demand is at 1.1250, 1.1210-00, 1.1100, 1.1050 A lack of significant long (stop) orders with just a smattering spread along the 1.1200-1.1260 range shows that there are hardly any traders long. Potential fresh supply at 1.1500 Sentiment remains clearly bearish with fresh lot of traders entering shorts on the FOMC release. The US data for New Home sales and also the Euro data earlier will likely position prices against the intended direction. SM is likely to create selling pressure to around the 1.1250 level or lower before reversing to fade the weak longs to the 1.1500-20 level or higher.  

EU long levels: 1.1220, 1.1200, 1.0965, 1.0920, 1.0762

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1600, 1.1630, 1.1678


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has dropped on USD strength and headed to test the 1.4812 pivot. A potential corrective move level. Week- The weekly candle is an above average spread (261pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

Day- The candle is a normal spread (87pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggets more downside. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5400, 1.5470, 1.5500, 1.5540, 1.5600 

The USD strength on FOMC release pushed prices lower. There is still significant volume trapped short with their potential stops at around 1.5100, 1.5070-50 and 1.5000. Potential long (trapped) stops at 1.5120, 1.5050, 1.4950-00 Potential fresh supply at 1.5260-80, 1.5300, 1.5340-50, 1.5400 SM is likely to continue selling pressure to fade weak longs to around 1.5110 or lower before reversing to resume the upward restock of short positions. This is likely a corrective move as the trend is still down.

GU long levels: 1.5110, 1.5050, 1.5000, 1.4950, 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4870, 1.4812 

GU short levels: 1.5162, 1.5185, 1.5222, 1.5268, 1.5298, 1.5326, 1.5350, 1.5347, 1.5415, 1.5478

Posted at 1.52 am EST