DAILY REVIEW 1 October 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Monthly- The candle is a large spread bear closing just off the low on average vol>7months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Daily- The candle is a large spread (131pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on high vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests buying but with more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2570 Daily/Weekly: 1.2034 Supply: short-term: 1.2634, 1.2653, 1.2661, 1.2690, 1.2740 (monthly ema200). Background: The German rates and yields being held negative out to 4 years changed the fundamentals and caused the Euro to weaken against just about every currency and EU responded by breaking the 1.2661 pivot to create a fresh low of 1.2570. The bias is most certainly to the downside now with the change of fundamentals. SM retraced upwards from 1.2570 yesterday fading weak shorts and is likely to continue fading weak shorts to the current swing high 1.2634 or higher before reversing to continue the downward movement.

EU long levels: 1.2570, 1.2034

EU short levels: 1.2634, 1.2653, 1.2661, 1.2690, 1.2740, 1.2782, 1.2800 

GU Analysis 

GU: Monthly- The candle is a average spread bear closing 1/3 off the low on very high vol>13months. The candle close and volume suggests buying but smacks more of a SM fade to restock short positions for more downside movement. Day- The candle is a large spread (120pips) bear spinning top closing on very high vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests buying. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6350, 1.6320, 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6620, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6415, 1.6475, 1.6505, 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 Still the same, nothing has changed and there really is no clear level to trade from at the moment. The only places worth looking for a trade would be the pivot high at 1.6523 and pivot low at 1.6161 

GU long levels: 1.6161, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6523, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Posted at 02.41 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 29 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Weekly-The candle is a above average spread (224pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Daily- The candle is a normal spread (83pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but with some slowing of selling momentum. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2661, 1.2034 Supply: short-term: 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Prices have already made lower low since last week and stopped just shy of the 1.2661 pivot. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.2742 or higher before reversing to test the 1.2661 pivot. 

EU long levels: 1.2695, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2742, 1.2782, 1.2800 

GU Analysis 

GU: Week-The candle is a below-average spread (177pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Day- The candle is a normal spread (94pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6350, 1.6320, 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6620, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6415, 1.6475, 1.6505, 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 Nothing has changed and there really is no clear level to trade from at the moment. The only places I would look for a trade would be the pivot high at 1.6523 and pivot low at 1.6161" 

GU long levels: 1.6161, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6523, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Posted at 03.05 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 26 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The daily candle is a normal spread (86pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on high vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests a slowing of selling momentum. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2695, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM held prices above the 1.2700 key level already and is likely to fade weak shorts to around yesterday's Asia High or higher to the 1.2800 level before reversing to continue the downward momentum to test the 1.2661 level where it is a potential level to take profit and reverse the direction. 

EU long levels: 1.2695, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2782, 1.2800 

GU Analysis 

GU: The candle is a below-average spread (65pips) bear closing 1/2 above the low on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of selling pressure. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6350, 1.6320, 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6620, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6415, 1.6475, 1.6505, 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 Nothing has changed since yesterday when I wrote "There really is no clear level to trade from at the moment and the only places I would look for a trade would be the pivot high at 1.6523 and pivot low at 1.6161" For traders looking to trade within the range, read yesterday's review of how you can use the TDI and volume to take the trade.

GU long levels: 1.6161, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6523, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Posted at 03.36 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 25 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The daily candle is a normal spread (89pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM broke the previous pivot low and also pushed past the 1.2754 pivot level convincingly and has since tested the 1.2700 key level already. Now only 40pips or so stand between current price levels and the final pivot low at 1.2661 SM is likely to trap shorts at the 1.2700 key level and fade to around Asia High before reversing to continue the downward momentum to test the 1.2661 level where it is a potential level to take profit and reverse the direction. 

EU long levels: 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2782, 1.2800 

GU Analysis 

GU: The daily candle is a normal spread (86pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<6days. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of selling pressure. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6350, 1.6320, 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6620, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6415, 1.6475, 1.6505, 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 Prices continued to tank through Asia following EU downward. Yesterday I wrote "they could reverse downward once they have sufficient orders."  SM is likely to continue to retest yesterday's high of 1.6415 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend to test the current 1.6050 low. There really is no clear level to trade from at the moment and the only places I would look for a trade would be the pivot high at 1.6523 and pivot low at 1.6161 However, for traders used to taking positions within trading ranges, you can use the TDI as shown to short on confirmation of the divergence by volume and price action, particularly good when it happens at confluence levels such as Fibs as well. The red vertical lines show the previous bearish divergence and the trade setup short. The white vertical lines and pivots on the chart and the green horizontal lines on the TDI show the levels that we watch for divergence and price to be confirmed by volume-price-reaction.

GU long levels: 1.6161, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6523, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Posted at 05.05 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 24 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The daily candle is a below average spread (58pips) near-doji pseudo-upthrust on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. SM pushed prices to test the 1.200 key level yesterday but overall price movement was small and limited and the orders remain pretty much the same. With this in view, SM is likely to retest yesterday's high 1.2900 or perhaps even up to 1.2955 before reversing to continue the downward move to 1.2777 

EU long levels: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 

GU Analysis 

GU: The daily candle is a normal spread (112pips) bull hammer closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of buying pressure. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6350, 1.6320, 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6620, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6415, 1.6475, 1.6505, 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 Even though SM pushed prices to 1.6415 yesterday, the potential order levels are still unclear although SM has been continuing to fade weak shorts as expected. Possibly we can only be sure of their intent when they trap long breakouts at the pivot 1.6523 (I made an error yesterday) However they could reverse downward once they have sufficient orders. SM is likely to continue to retest yesterday's high of 1.6415 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend to test the current 1.6050 low. 

GU long levels: 1.6350, 1.6320, 1.6242, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6415, 1.6475, 1.6505,1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Posted at 04.18 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 23 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The daily candle is a small spread (51pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of selling pressure. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Without any significant news yesterday, prices hardly moved and there is no perceivable change in where the orders may be stacked although SM pushed prices lower making a new low at 1.2815 SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around 1.2900 or perhaps to 1.2955 before reversing to continue the downward move to 1.2777 

EU long levels: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 

GU Analysis 

GU: Weekly- The daily candle is a below average spread (80pips0 bull closing near the high on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside but a slowing of buying pressure. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6620, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6390, 1.6475, 1.6505, 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 The potential order levels are really not clear although SM has been fading weak shorts as expected. The clearest is still if they trap long breakouts at the pivot 1.6490 but they could reverse once they have sufficient orders. SM is likely to continue to fade weak shorts to around 1.6390 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend to test the current 1.6050 low. 

GU long levels: 1.6242, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6390, 1.6475, 1.6505,1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Posted at 02.18 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 22 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Weekly- The candle is an above average spread (167pips) bear closing on very high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Daily- The daily candle is a normal spread (101pips) bear closing at the low on very high vol>75days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Sentiment remains largely unchanged with USD strength predominant. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around 1.2900 or even higher, perhaps to 1.2955/1.3000 before reversing to continue the downward move to 1.2777 

EU long levels: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 

GU Analysis 

GU: Weekly- The weekly candle is an above average spread (362pips) near doji "upthrust" closing on ultrahigh vol>61weeks. The candle close and volume suggets more downside. Daily- The daily candle is a very large spread (240pips) bear upthrust closing on ultrahigh vol>307days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6620, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6390, 1.6475, 1.6505, 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 Background: SM has made the most of the Scottish referendum pushing prices down and then back up and dropping like a rock last week. The aftermath of it now sees the British government scrambling to fulfill promises made and this will create further volatility as expectations rise and fall. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around 1.6390 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend to test the current 1.6050 low. 

GU long levels: 1.6242, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6390, 1.6475, 1.6505,1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Posted at 11.14 pm EST 21 Sep 2014

DAILY REVIEW 19 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: The daily candle is a normal spread (96pips) bull closing just off the high on very high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Background: The bias is still remains clearly downtrend in line with sentiment and the higher time frame analysis. The immediate reaction of the market since the Scottish referendum has been bullish Asian markets. The previous pivot at 1.2858 had already been decisively broken and generally the order stacks remain generally unchanged. SM is likely to retest yesterday's high at 1.2930 or higher to 1.2955/1.3000 before reversing to continue the downward move to 1.2777 

EU long levels: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2930, 1.2952, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 

GU Analysis 

GU: The daily candle is a large spread (162pips) bull closing at the high on very high vol>303days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6620, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Background: The Scottish NO vote has lots of speculators buying the Pound, this euphoria will be short lived as the Ukraine and ISIS situations remain unresolved and will only cause USD to strengthen again. Prices have moved off the lows very significantly. SM is likely to keep the buying pressure to around 1.6550 or higher before reversing to resume the downtrend. In the event that price closes above 1.6360, we can expect it to test the 1.6400 key level or more.

GU long levels: 1.6242, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6550, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622 

Posted at 03.50 am 

DAILY REVIEW 18 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: The daily candle is a large spread (129pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol>73days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Background: SM pushed prices to 1.2995 late in the day as expected but did not follow through to the 1.3000 key level. FOMC yesterday was basically more of the same and as expected we saw USD strength causing EU to break below the pivot of 1.2858 The bias is still remains clearly downtrend in line with sentiment and the higher time frame analysis. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.2895 or higher to 1.2925 before reversing to continue the downward move to 1.2777

EU long levels: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2895, 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 

GU Analysis 

GU: The daily candle is a normal spread (109pips) near doji upthrust closing on very high vol>287days. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6158, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6357, 1.6425, 1.6497, 1.6597 
Background: The Scottish referendum is ON NOW. Today is the day of reckoning and will whipsaw. Do note that whatever the outcome of the referendum, the USD strength will remain whilst the Ukraine and ISIS situations remain unresolved any upward move is more likely a reload of short positions for SM. The outcome is still too close to call so anything that is not at a significant level will not be worth trading. Having said that, SM is likely to fade weak shorts to test yesterday's high 1.6357 or higher before reversing (see the chart for levels) before reversing to resume the downtrend. In the event that price closes above 1.6360, we can expect it to test the 1.6400 key level or more.

GU long levels: 1.6248, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6335, 1.6340, 1.6358 

Posted at 03.13 am 

DAILY REVIEW 17 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: The daily candle is a below average spread (72pips) bull closing about 1/2 off the high on high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Background: SM pushed prices to 1.2995 late in the day as expected but did not follow through to the 1.3000 key level. Today's order book for Oanda shows an increased number of traders trapped short after yesterday's song and dance by SM. The buy order stack at 1.3100 is largely unchanged. Eurozone news just released is generally positive and should provide SM the fuel to get these stops at the 1.3000 and a bit higher possibly as there is no significant supply level anywhere near the 1.3000 – 1.3050 level. SM is likely to induce breakout traders long at the 1.3000 pivot or even higher to around the 1.3049 before reversing to continue the downward trend. Note the confluence 1.3000 (50%Fib) and 1.3049 (61.8%Fib). The Order book chart shown above can be accessed at the Oanda website.

EU long levels: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.3025, 1.3050 

GU Analysis 

GU: The daily candle is a large spread (149pips) bull closing 1/4 off the high on high vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests selling commencement. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6158, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) 
Background: The Scottish referendum is TOMORROW. The very large moves on insignificant news are usually what SM does re-positioning prices and orders according to their expectations. As expected, the retail traders chasing the shorts got trapped and are in severe drawdown if not already dead and buried. I did write that the cable will likely whipsaw as we approach the day of reckoning and it's exactly what happened and will likely continue until the vote itself. Price has already gone past the gap close level of 1.6320 with the current day high at 1.6335. A look at the order book (retail positions) reveal no open orders roughly from 1.6400 - 1.6420, with a massing of sell orders from current price to around 1.6400 Whatever the outcome of the referendum, the USD strength will remain whilst the Ukraine and ISIS situations remain unresolved and this would mean a reload of short positions for SM. The positive UK data today notwithstanding, where price spiked and is now retracing, is likely the reload for SM to take prices up again before reversing. The news say that the likely outcome is too close to call so anything that is not at a significant level will not be worth trading and holding. Having said that, SM is likely to fade weak longs to around the Asia low 1.6248 before reversing to retest the current day high at 1.6335 or higher (see the chart for levels) before reversing to resume the downtrend. In the event that price closes above 1.6360, we can expect it to test the 1.6400 key level.

GU long levels: 1.6248, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6335, 1.6340, 1.6358 

Posted at 06.00 am 

DAILY REVIEW 16 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: The daily candle is a below average spread (64pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on low vol<9days. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of selling pressure. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Background: Nothing has changed. A look at

the open orders both net and non-cumulative above shows a largely unchanged order stack. Buy orders around 1.2850 – 1.2900 with hardly any demand below 1.2750 There is no significant supply level anywhere near the 1.3000 – 1.3050 level. Read yesterday's review for the levels, they are the same. SM is likely to induce breakout traders long at the 1.2988 pivot or even higher to around the 1.3049 before reversing to continue the downward trend. Note the confluence 1.2988 (38.2%Fib) 1.3000 (50%Fib) and 1.3049 (61.8%Fib). The Order book chart shown above can be accessed at the Oanda website.

EU long levels: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2988, 1.3025, 1.3050 

GU Analysis 

GU: The daily candle is a small spread (57pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<7days. The candle close and volume suggests a lack of selling pressure. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6158, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) 
Background: Keep in mind the history making Scottish referendum this Thursday. The 156pips gap caused by this initial weekend news has not closed yet and still has the possibility of being closed. Essentially the order stacks do not look significantly changed as there are hardly any significant orders above 1.6200 and we see a build up of orders below 1.6277 as retails traders chase the market possibly playing straight into the hands of the SM. SM is likely to create selling pressure to continue to fade weak longs while exciting more shorts to around the 1.6120 level before reversing back to test yesterday's high (1.6277) or the gap close at 1.6320 The cable will likely whipsaw from time to time as we approach the time of reckoning and news filters through on the various polls conducted to guess the likely outcome of the referendum.

GU long levels: 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6277, 1.6320 (Gap close), 1.6340 

Posted at 04.43 am Updated 05.15 am  (posted EU instead of GU charts, reposted)

DAILY REVIEW 15 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: The daily candle is an average spread (70pips) bull large body spinning top closing off the high on very high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Background: The situation in Ukraine remains unresolved with the EU and US imposing fresh sanctions on Russia and the Russians rattling their sabre as well. Additionally, the ISIS crisis intensified with the murder of a British aid worker. These ongoing situations continue to drive USD strength and that in itself creates the continuing demand for USD. ECB’s Coene also remarked that falling currency (Euro) is rather helpful and that ECB's projections for Sep was on the optimistic side which basically tells us that the ECB may well see a lower Euro as being better for its members until they recover. The sentiment is still one of fear with the geo-political situations and of caution for Euro fiscal considerations giving us a clear immediate and longer term short bias for the EU. A look at the open orders above shows a likely stack of buy orders around 1.2850 – 1.2900 with hardly any demand below 1.2750 The figures above also show Net sell orders above current price of 1.2964 dominant but without any clear significant level until 1.300 and the 1.3050 Looking at the Net order stacks, The biggest payout for SM will be for the lower levels back toward 1.2850 Looking back to the charts, there is no significant supply level anywhere near the 1.3000 – 1.3050 level. The current demand stack sits exactly where we would expect it above the current pivot low of 1.2858 and therefore suggests that the short term bias is also downwards. SM is likely to induce breakout traders long at the 1.2988 pivot or even higher to around the 1.3049 before reversing to continue the downward trend. Note the confluence 1.2988 (38.2%Fib) 1.3000 (50%Fib) and 1.3049 (61.8%Fib). The Order book chart shown above can be accessed at the Oanda website.

EU long levels: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2988, 1.3025, 1.3050 

GU Analysis 

GU: The weekly candle is an above average spread (224pips) bull closing near the high on ultrahigh vol>59weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. The daily candle is a below average spread (72pips) bull hammer closing on high vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests buying. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6058
Supply: Short term: 1.6158, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) 
Background: The upcoming referendum on a possible independent Scotland this Thursday 18 Sep 2014 will give the Sterling considerable volatility as it is too close to call either way. Scotland leaving the 307 year union will have considerable ramifications, quite possibly the least of which are Scotland's local economics or security as clearly, even if the Sterling will look less sterling as it becomes undermined, the possibility of the UK's standing and credibility in NATO being jeopardized at a time when ISIS and Russia loom large has significant geopolitical impact in Europe and the world. It does look like the 156pips gap caused by this initial weekend news now has the possibility of being closed. Prices opened with a 12pips gap up which has since been closed. SM is likely to fade weak longs to around the 1.6215 level or lower before reversing back to test Asia high (1.6277) or the gap close at 1.6320 The cable may whipsaw as news filters through on the various polls conducted to guess the likely outcome of the referendum.

GU long levels: 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6277, 1.6320 (Gap close), 1.6340 

Updated at 03.09 am