DAILY REVIEW 18 September 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: The daily candle is a large spread (129pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol>73days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661 Supply: short-term: 1.3025, 1.3050 Weekly/Daily: 1.4184, 1.4246 pivot. Background: SM pushed prices to 1.2995 late in the day as expected but did not follow through to the 1.3000 key level. FOMC yesterday was basically more of the same and as expected we saw USD strength causing EU to break below the pivot of 1.2858 The bias is still remains clearly downtrend in line with sentiment and the higher time frame analysis. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.2895 or higher to 1.2925 before reversing to continue the downward move to 1.2777

EU long levels: 1.2777, 1.2754, 1.2661  
EU short levels: 1.2895, 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050 

GU Analysis 

GU: The daily candle is a normal spread (109pips) near doji upthrust closing on very high vol>287days. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5870, 1.5850 Short term: 1.6248, 1.6058 Supply: Short term: 1.6158, 1.6185, 1.6230 (Gap), 1.6320 (Gap close) Supply Short Term: 1.6357, 1.6425, 1.6497, 1.6597 
Background: The Scottish referendum is ON NOW. Today is the day of reckoning and will whipsaw. Do note that whatever the outcome of the referendum, the USD strength will remain whilst the Ukraine and ISIS situations remain unresolved any upward move is more likely a reload of short positions for SM. The outcome is still too close to call so anything that is not at a significant level will not be worth trading. Having said that, SM is likely to fade weak shorts to test yesterday's high 1.6357 or higher before reversing (see the chart for levels) before reversing to resume the downtrend. In the event that price closes above 1.6360, we can expect it to test the 1.6400 key level or more.

GU long levels: 1.6248, 1.6050, 1.5870 
GU short levels: 1.6335, 1.6340, 1.6358 

Posted at 03.13 am